最大的擔憂集中在后期投資

68%的受采訪有限合伙人提到，后期市場估值過高。

看待市場的角度各有不同，有的人看到的是問題，有的人則聞到了商機。一些有限合伙人曾在私下對我說，隨著新資金越來越難融，未來18個月專注后期的風投沒準能找到營收良好但缺錢的公司，低價買入大量股權撿個大便宜。不過這并不適合實力弱的風投，因為小風投很難談下項目，即便能進入也很難保證后續順利進行。但毫無疑問的是，一定有人能賺到錢。

另一個擔憂對象是種子投資基金

我還聽有限合伙人提到擔心種子階段投資。一種說法是，種子階段的基金過多而且差異化不強，大部分水平都差不多。另一點讓有限合伙人很擔心的就是，無論形勢好壞，一些種子基金都會出局。市場好時，種子基金沒錢繼續投資贏家；市場不好時，如果沒能提前攢下足夠資金維護持股地位，可能會因為在資本重組和清算中沒有優先權被迫離場。

The Biggest Area of Concern is in Late-Stage Investments

68% of LPs surveyed expressed caution that that late-stage part of the market is over-valued.

But, of course, for every angle of the market that one person sees caution others spot opportunities. Some LPs have said to me privately that they wonder if later-stage VCs may have a field day in the next 18 months buying up large positions in companies with strong revenue at attractive prices given the new funding squeeze. It’s not an opportunity for the weak of stomach as these deals are hard to get done and even harder to keep on course. But there’s not doubt some will make money.

Another Area of Concern is in the Seed Investor Class

I also have heard LPs express concern about the seed stage. One narrative is that too many funds have been created and, without a strong sense of differentiation, mediocrity will rule. Another big area of concern expressed by LPs is that some seed funds may get “squeezed” in good scenarios and bad. In good scenarios they don’t have funds large enough to follow their winners and in bad markets they can be wiped out by recaps and liquidation preferences unless they save enough reserves to protect their positions.

數據本身便能證明部分擔心并非空穴來風。89%的有限合伙人在不同程度上表達了對種子市場的擔憂。65%的人表示，他們會投資種子基金，但是會對投資對象精挑細選。有23%的人對于基金的能力表示擔憂。例如，大多數有限合伙人認為優秀的種子基金的回報仍然相當不俗，但沒法在少數幾個名聲不錯的種子基金里投很多錢。

幾年前，業績最好的幾個種子基金通過籌集“機會基金”來應對現金困境，隨著后續幾輪融資規模的擴大，機會基金可用于投資其中最佳項目。當然，此舉引發了一系列問題，例如利益沖突、估值爭議以及早期投資者是否有資格投資后期項目等。但是種子投資者和有限合伙人都認為，只要項目得到合理的管理，退出時就能有利可圖。支持機會基金的有限合伙人占比達到了驚人的85%，前提是在募集時注重實效和經濟效益。

大多數有限合伙人認為傳統風投受到排擠

一些較大規模的基金偶爾會提到，業內漸有排擠傳統風投基金的跡象。他們表示，一方面，“大型風投基金規模變得更大，可以在各個階段競爭”，另一方面，“種子投資者的動作比傳統風投更快”。坦白地說，我從來不相信。作為一家傳統的風投公司，目睹種子基金成長是一件好事，因為能估值的創業公司數量也增加了。此外，我們跟種子基金并肩作戰已經很熟練了。

除了少數在一夜間規模暴漲的項目之外，我并沒有感到多少大型風投公司加入競爭帶來的壓力。大風投習慣于向盈利模式明確的企業投資2,000萬美元，才不愿意去競爭投資那些盈利模式不怎么明確、僅需400-500萬美元的項目。

幸運的是，有限合伙人似乎也認同這點。僅有17%的有限合伙人認同傳統風投受到排擠，而34%的有限合伙人傾向于投資傳統的A/B輪風投基金。當然，50%的有限合伙人希望將投資合理地分配在各個階段：種子、傳統和成長階段。

The data itself bears out some of these fears. 89% of LPs surveyed expressed some level of concern about the seed market. 65% said they will invest in seed funds but they are very discerning about which ones they’ll fund and 23% are worried about capacity. Anecdotally, most LPs believe the best seed funds still deliver superior returns to other parts of the market, but they simply can’t put enough dollars to work in the handful they truly respect.

A few years ago the best seed funds responded to the challenge of being cash strapped by raising “opportunity funds,” which can invest in their best deals as the follow-on rounds get larger. Of course this brings up a host of complications about conflicts of interest, valuations and whether early-stage investors are well-suited to invest in later-stage deals. But both seed investors and LPs alike agree that as long as these programs are managed sensibly they are useful to exist. A whopping 85% of LPs were favorable to opportunity funds as long as they were done with a pragmatic approach and with favorable economics.

Most LPs Don’t Believe That Traditional VCs are Being Squeezed

One narrative mentioned occasionally by some of the larger funds is that traditional VCs will be “squeezed.” They say that “the big guys are getting bigger and can compete for the full lifecycle of investments” on one side and “the seed investors are out-hustling traditional VC” on the other side. Frankly, I’ve never believed this argument. As a traditional VC, watching the growth of seeds funds has been a blessing because it increases the total number of startups from which we can evaluate. Also, we’ve become very adept at partnering side-by-side seed funds.

And other than a handful of deals that scale in the blink of an eye, I really haven’t felt too much pressure from bigger VCs moving downmarket into our territory. Funds that are more comfortable writing $20 million checks in proven businesses simply don’t want to also have to write checks and compete for less proven deals in need of $4-5 million.

Luckily LPs seem to agree. Only 17% bought the premise that traditional VCs are being squeezed versus 34% who prefer to focus the majority of their efforts of traditional A/B roundVC funds. And of course 50% want a good balance across all stages: seed, traditional and growth.

有限合伙人生態系統最大的變化可能在于不少在尋求直接投資

過去三年中，欣欣向榮的技術市場和資金紛紛涌入風投領域也催生了一個很少有人關注現象——尋求“直接投資”的資金（就是資金直接進入被投公司而不是投資該公司的基金）的激增。

近40%的受訪有限合伙人表示，直接投資正成為投資計劃中重要組成部分（17%的人認為是“非常重要”的組成部分），另有44%的有限合伙人已經在見機行事做直接投資。甚至還有基金的基金募資金時主要推廣口號就是能提供更好的直接投資渠道。

總結

有限合伙人仍是風投行業的堅定支持者，而且未來一兩年看起來會保持穩健的投資節奏（除非市場出現不可預見的負面事件）。

如果風投找不到辦法順利退出，讓資本循環起來重新投資，有限合伙人就會受到沖擊。如果資金一直無法回流，最終有限合伙人會被拖垮。我認為，在接下來的12-18個月中，風投在整體資產組合中比例下調將成為有限合伙人的談論焦點；不過，仍然會有很多有限合伙人看好風投，原因跟我一樣。每一次調整之后都會出現持續很長時間的技術革新，而利潤只會滾滾流入少數贏家的腰包。（財富中文網）

馬克?薩斯特(@msuster)是洛杉磯風投資本公司Upfront Ventures的合伙人。

翻譯：馮豐

審校：夏林

Perhaps the Biggest Change in the LP Ecosystem is the Number Now Seeking Direct Investments

The booming tech markets and the dollars being allocated in the venture sector has brought about one seldom talked about consequence over the past 3 years ― the sheer number of LP dollars looking for “direct investment” (or dollars going directly into portfolio companies vs. the funds themselves).

Nearly 40% of all LPs surveyed said that direct investments were becoming an important part of their program (17% said they’re very important) and a further 44% of LPs are opportunistically doing direct investments. There are even LP fund-of-funds whose main marketing message when they raise capital is that they provide better access to direct investments.

Summary

LPs remain staunch supporters of the venture capital industry and their investment pace seems likely to hold steady for the next one or two years (barring any unforeseen negative market events).

This support will eventually start to meet headwinds if our industry doesn’t find a way to drive more exits to recycle capital back into the ecosystem. Eventually LPs will become stretched without some cash distributions. I expect the LP conversations in the next 12 to 18 months to be about VC portfolios being inevitably marked down; however, many LPs are long on venture capital for the same reasons I am. Any correction will be followed by the long march of technology disruption and the profits disproportionately allocated to the winners.

Mark Suster (@msuster) is a partner with Los Angeles-based venture capital firm Upfront Ventures.