有限合伙人是指投資風投基金的機構和個人。最近，我采訪了73位有限合伙人，進一步了解他們對2016年風投市場的看法。我還與其他很多有限合伙人聊了聊，在最近召開的Upfront Summit大會上也找機會交流。下面是溝通后了解到的核心內容：

進入風投市場的資金有所增加

首先，眾所周知進入風投市場的資本已經穩步回升至大衰退之前的水平，2015年美國科技行業風投資本的規模接近300億美元。近來不少風投資本開始撤回在創業企業的投資，引發了不少討論，但我們采訪的有限合伙人都表示向風投注資的節奏不會放緩，至少短期內不會。

Surveying the investors behind the investors.

Limited partners are institutions and individuals who invest in venture capital funds, and I recently surveyed 73 of them to better understand their thoughts on the VC market in 2016. I also had conversations with many more ― including at our recent Upfront Summit ― and what follows is the essence of what I learned:

Dollars into Venture Have Gone Up

As a starting point we know that the dollars into venture have steadily gone back up to pre-Great Recession levels with just under $30 billion committed to U.S. technology venture capital in 2015. While there is much discussion about VCs starting to pull back on their investments into startups, the LPs we surveyed don’t expect to slow the pace of investment into VC funds themselves ― at least not for the foreseeable future.

但是有限合伙人一直處于投資大于回報的狀態

有限合伙人一直非常看好風投資本，因為風投手中持有優步和Airbnb等公司的優質股權，相信未來能收獲大量現金收益。但是在過去10年中，他們在風投里的投資要遠多于收到的回報。事實上，如果計算過去10年中的資本流就會發現，凈現金支出接近500億美元。

But LPs Have Been Putting Out More Money Than They Are Getting Back

LPs have been feeling great about venture capital due to holding valuable paper positions in companies like Uber and Airbnb that they feel confident will drive large cash distributions in the future. But they have been sending VCs way more investment checks in the last 10 years than they’ve gotten back as distributions. In fact, if you add up capital flows of the past 10 years, there has been just shy of $50 billion in net cash outlays.

問題在于，有限合伙人這500億美元的真金白銀套在風投里，沒法投向其他資產。這里出現了一個經常被忽視的問題：如果有限合伙人收不回資金，投出的資金又越來越多，最終要么減少對風投的投資，要么被迫增加風投在資產組合中的比例（代價是減少投資其他資產）。

有限合伙人仍堅信風投是一種多元化的回報來源

對于初創企業來說，好消息是有限合伙人仍非常看好能從風投中拿到的長期收益，而且仍在繼續投資。在我們采訪的73支有限合伙人基金中，只有7%的基金認為，當前的市況下在風投領域投資過多；22%的基金反而有意追加投資。

And that’s real cash that LPs can’t put to work in other asset classes. So one problem often not talked about is that if LPs don’t get money back and accumulate more cash outflows, eventually they will either have to pare back investments into venture or they’ll have to increase the percentage of dollars they allocate to venture (at the expense of other asset classes).

LPs Still Believe Strongly in VC as a Diverse Source of Returns

The good news for startups is that the LPs are still very big believers in the long-term gains they will get from venture and are still allocating capital to the industry. In our poll of 73 LP funds, only 7% felt they were overweight in venture given the current market climate against 22% of the firms who are actually looking to add exposure.

盡管有人稱大多數有限合伙人僅愿意投資硅谷的老牌基金，但有證據表明，目前很多人已意識到，一些新面孔也能利用差異化開辟出新的陣地。事實上，40%的有限合伙人稱，他們有意投資新基金。

And while there is a narrative that most LPs only want to invest in the long-standing Silicon Valley brands, there is evidence that many now understand that it is possible for new entrants to stake out new grounds of differentiation. In fact, 40% of LPs tell us that they’re looking to add new names to their rosters.

有限合伙人意識到了估值過高的現象，而且不喜歡

然而，并非所有的事情都那么美好。有限合伙人都十分關注媒體最近報道的初創企業估值過高和過度融資現象，而且他們都有親身經歷。調研中約75%有限合伙人表示，對投資節奏、投資狂熱和估值十分關注，但到目前為止，只有6%的受訪對象表示“非常擔憂”。

LPs See The Over-Valuations & Don’t Like It

But all isn’t completely rosy. LPs have followed much of press recently about startup over-valuation and over-funding, and they experience these phenomena first hand. Some 75% of LPs polled said they are concerned about investment pace, burn and valuations ― but, for now, only 6% are “deeply concerned.”

估計在接下來的18個月中，有限合伙人可能會看到另一個2008-09年之后很少出現的情況——估值降低。奇怪的是，越成功的基金可能越快碰到這種情況，因為持有一些新上市公司股份的基金（包括我們的基金）有可能很快因股價調整減計資產。

有限合伙人面臨的另一個問題在于，“重回市場”的風投募資速度比過去快了不少。正常來說，業績很好的風投基金每三年會籌集一支新基金。但在最近幾年，一些風投基本上18個月內便會募集新基金。我覺得這一好日子馬上就要結束了。61%的受訪有限合伙人認為，風投回歸市場的速度太快。

I suspect LPs in the next 18 months will see another phenomenon that they likely haven’t seen much since 2008-09: Markdowns. This strangely may come even more quickly in the more successful funds because any fund (ours included) that still holds some public stock from a recent IPO will likely see immediate write-downs due to public stocks being repriced.

Also problematic for LPs is that VC firms have been “back in the market” raising funds more quickly than they have in the past. A normal VC fund raises a new fund every three years if it is a strong performer but, in recent years, there have been some VC firms that have literally raised new funds inside of 18 months. I suspect those days will end soon. 61% of LPs polled said they felt VCs were coming back to market too quickly.