按照巴菲特的投資邏輯，伯克希爾持有的IBM股份表現良好。

沃倫?巴菲特周一接受CNBC采訪時說，當初決定讓伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司買進IBM股票可能是個錯誤。但這并不是他的真實想法。

大手筆投資藍色巨人IBM讓巴菲特飽受同行以及評論人士的批評。盡管如此，巴菲特在2015年仍增持了IBM。他還在周一表示，從未賣出IBM的股份。伯克希爾上周公布了年報，其中一份監管文件稱，并不打算出售IBM的股票。年報稱：“我們認為，IBM普通股的合理價值將出現反彈，最終股價會高過持股成本。”

巴菲特表示，買股票花了多少錢“并不重要”，市場短期內總是會上下波動的。他認為IBM股票的內在價值遠高于目前的股價，重要的是這只股票10年后的價格。按照這樣的說法，得等到這位大佬95歲時才能評價投資IBM到底賺了還是虧了。

巴菲特希望觀察者，尤其是投資者不要急于下結論，除了簡單地看當前股價，還有一種方法可以衡量投資的價值。更妙的是，這種方法還源于巴菲特提出的思路。

巴菲特投入IBM的資金為130億美元多點，持股比例略高于8%。巴菲特說，做股市投資時都是從公司所有者的角度看待。因此，他認為自己，或者更確切地說，是伯克希爾的股東都應該擁有IBM 8%的利潤，盡管他無權去要這筆錢。

2015年，IBM的利潤為132億美元，按照巴菲特的理論，其中約11億美元屬于伯克希爾。也就是說，巴菲特對IBM投資的整體回報率為8%。考慮到眼下的利率和股市估值水平，回報率已經不算差了。

如果從長期角度考察伯克希爾對IBM的投資，情況甚至更好。2011年是巴菲特以及伯克希爾成為IBM股東的第一個完整年份，當年IBM的利潤為159億美元。當時，巴菲特向IBM投入的資金接近109億美元，持股比例為5.5%，相應的利潤份額為8.75億美元，伯克希爾由此獲得了8%的回報率。

2012年，伯克希爾出資8.30億美元增持了IBM股份，持股比例上升了0.5個百分點。IBM當年實現利潤166億美元，按照巴菲特的邏輯，伯克希爾獲得的利潤增加了8300萬美元。再算下去就是，2012年IBM給伯克希爾帶來了10%的回報率。自此，IBM股份給伯克希爾帶來的回報不斷上升。2015年，巴菲特斥資6.34億美元增持IBM，按比例來算應得的IBM利潤上升了7900萬美元，相應的回報率為12%。

當然，如果IBM的股價不斷下跌，談利潤就沒意義了。2011年以來，巴菲特的IBM投資實際上縮水了260萬美元。他持有的IBM股份帶來了7.25億美元的利潤，低于五年前的8.30億美元。此外，外界普遍擔心IBM在云技術和人工智能領域投入大量資金后，產生的收入填不上龐大的計算機服務業務收入銳減后的窟窿。

也就是說，巴菲特投資IBM最終還是有可能賺不到錢。不過只要巴菲特能以越來越小的代價“換取”越來越大的IBM利潤份額，就很難說這是筆失敗的投資。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

審校：夏林

Based on Buffett’s investing logic, Berkshire’s IBM stake is doing well.

Warren Buffett said on Monday in an interview on CNBC that it’s possible he erred when he bought shares of IBM for his insurance and investment conglomerate. But he doesn’t think so.

Buffett has taken a lot of heat from fellow investors and commentators over his big bet on Big Blue. Nonetheless, Buffett added to Berkshire’s position in IBM IBM -0.76% last year, and said on Monday that he hasn’t sold a share of the stock. In Berkshire’s annual report, which was released on Saturday, Berkshire states in its regulatory filing that it has no plans of disposing of the stock. “We expect that the fair value of our investment in IBM common stock will recover and ultimately exceed our cost,” the report said.

Buffett said on Monday that what he pays for a stock “doesn’t matter.” The market goes up and down in the short-term. But Buffett says the intrinsic value of IBM’s shares is much higher than where the stock is trading now. What matters, Buffett said, is what the stock will be trading for 10 years from now. So, by that math, you won’t be able to evaluate Buffett’s IBM investment until the Oracle turns 95.

But while Buffett wants observers, and most likely his investors, to reserve judgement, there is a way to evaluate the investment aside from merely looking at the current stock price. And, even better, that alternative takes a page from Buffett’s own play book.

Buffett has paid just over $13 billion for his stake in IBM, which accounts for just over 8% of the tech giant. Buffett says he thinks of stock market investments as if he were an owner of the company. Therefore, Buffett considers himself (or, more accurately, Berkshire shareholders) entitled to 8% of IBM’s earnings, even though he can’t actually ask for the money. IBM earned $13.2 billion last year. Berkshire’s share of that would be roughly $1.1 billion. That would constitute an 8% return on Buffett’s overall investment. Not bad, considering where interest rates are these days and the valuations of the stock market.

The picture looks even better if you examine Berkshire’s IBM investment over time. Back in 2011, the first full year Buffett and Berkshire were IBM shareholders, the company had a profit of $15.9 billion. At the time, Buffett had invested nearly $10.9 billion in IBM, giving Berkshire a 5.5% stake in the company, which would translate to $875 million in earnings, giving Berkshire a return of 8%.

In 2012, Berkshire purchased another $830 million worth of IBM shares, giving it 0.5% more ownership of the company. That year, IBM earned $16.6 billion. So, according to Buffett’s logic, that would entitle Berkshire to an additional $83 million in earnings. Based on this line of thinking, Berkshire’s investment in IBM had a return of 10% that year. Berkshire’s ownership returns for IBM have gone up from there. Last year, Buffett increased Berkshire’s stake in IBM by $634 million, and its share of IBM’s earnings rose by $79 million, yielding a return of 12%.

Of course, none of this matters if IBM’s shares keep falling. Buffett’s actual investment in IBM has fallen in value by $2.6 million since 2011. His original stake in IBM generated $725 million in earnings, down from $830 million five years ago. And the tech company is plagued by fears that its huge investment in the cloud and artificial intelligence won’t replace the revenue it is losing in its huge computer services business.