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中國(guó)為什么隱去外匯買賣數(shù)據(jù)

中國(guó)為什么隱去外匯買賣數(shù)據(jù)

Scott Cendrowski 2016-02-23
2015年12月中國(guó)資本外流規(guī)模達(dá)到1500億美元,今年1月的數(shù)字在1200億美元左右。就在投資者開始更加關(guān)注不斷攀升的資本外流水平時(shí),中國(guó)人民銀行提高了計(jì)算這一經(jīng)濟(jì)不利因素的難度。

據(jù)《南華早報(bào)》報(bào)道,中國(guó)人民銀行在最新公告中隱去了“外匯買賣”數(shù)據(jù)。就在評(píng)論人士紛紛猜測(cè)資本外流是否有可能重創(chuàng)人民幣和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)之際,出現(xiàn)了這樣一個(gè)未公開披露的調(diào)整。資本外流會(huì)造成本幣貶值,一大批中國(guó)企業(yè)都對(duì)此感到擔(dān)心。它們?cè)谶^去幾年中欠下了外幣債務(wù),而今則不得不用貶值后的人民幣進(jìn)行償還。

央行隱去數(shù)據(jù)的消息之所以重要,是因?yàn)橘Y本外流并非直觀項(xiàng)目,得通過各種方法來進(jìn)行分析和計(jì)算,其中一種方法就要用到“外匯買賣”這個(gè)項(xiàng)目。《南華早報(bào)》引述兩位分析師的話說,中國(guó)人民銀行的目的就是要隱去資本持續(xù)外流的真實(shí)水平。

這不應(yīng)該讓人感到意外。從去年夏天的救市,到設(shè)法支撐人民幣匯率,無不如此。不過,分析師仍有多種方法來估算中國(guó)的資本外流規(guī)模,只是央行讓這項(xiàng)工作變得難上加難。(財(cái)富中文網(wǎng))

譯者:Charlie

校對(duì):詹妮

China’s central bank is making it harder to calculate the size of capital outflows afflicting the economy, just as investors have started paying closer attention to those mounting outflows, which in December reached almost $150 billion and in January around $120 billion.

The central bank omitted data on “position for forex purchase” during its latest report, the South China Morning Post reported today. The unannounced change comes at a time pundits are questioning whether outflows have the potential to cripple China’s currency and economy. Capital outflows lead to a weaker currency, which concerns the hordes of Chinese companies that borrowed debt in foreign currencies over the past few years and now have to pay it back with a weaker yuan.

The news of the central bank withholding data is important because capital outflow figures aren’t released as s. They are calculated by analysts in a variety of ways, one of which includes using the omitted data. The Post quoted two analysts concluding the central bank’s intention was to hide the true amount of continuing outflows.

The impulse to hide bad news shouldn’t come as a surprise. China’s government has been evasive about economic matters from this summer’s stock bailout to its efforts propping up the value of the yuan. Analysts still have a variety of ways to estimate the flows, but the central bank is making it ever more difficult.

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