隨著美股再次暴跌，全世界似乎都認(rèn)為中國經(jīng)濟將不可避免地陷入低迷。這已經(jīng)不是中國經(jīng)濟第一次被看衰了。2015年夏天，滬市股指一度出現(xiàn)了斷崖式下跌，隨后人民幣相對美元出現(xiàn)了4%的貶值，使一些原本清醒的分析師也陷入了恐慌。當(dāng)時有不少分析師都給出了極為悲觀的預(yù)測，認(rèn)為中國經(jīng)濟或?qū)⒚媾R災(zāi)難性衰退。眼下剛一進入2016年，“中國崩潰論”便再次塵囂直上，引發(fā)了更大的恐慌和市場騷動。然而從總體上來看，這些分析師和投資人乃至廣大媒體的態(tài)度還是過于悲觀了。

中國經(jīng)濟目前遠(yuǎn)非處于衰退狀態(tài)，而是正在經(jīng)歷向“新常態(tài)”調(diào)整的陣痛。2002到2008年間，中國年均經(jīng)濟增長率達(dá)到了驚人的12%。2008到2014年，過熱的經(jīng)濟增長率有所下降，回落到每年8%至9%之間。目前中國經(jīng)濟的年增長率大概在6%至7%之間。經(jīng)濟降速表明龐大的中國經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)邁過了“創(chuàng)業(yè)”階段，開始走向成熟。這種新環(huán)境當(dāng)然會讓投資人感到緊張，但它并不等于中國經(jīng)濟的末日。隨著各國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展以及經(jīng)濟體量的增大，年增長率的減緩是不可避免的——但它仍然是在增長。比如美國GDP的年增長率大約在2.2%左右，英國的GDP年增率約為1.7%。

和其他現(xiàn)代化的大型經(jīng)濟體一樣，中國經(jīng)濟不可避免地朝著穩(wěn)定的“新常態(tài)”進行調(diào)整。這一點再顯然不過，但這仍然沒有減緩去年夏天的股災(zāi)和當(dāng)下的恐慌。2015年8月26日的最低點標(biāo)志著滬指下跌了超過30%，投資者損失的資金高達(dá)4到5萬億美元。這么大的損失顯然是由于對中國經(jīng)濟的走向過于悲觀所致。目前擺在我們面前的真正的問題是，股市的暴跌究竟是由于中國經(jīng)濟健康狀況下滑導(dǎo)致的，還是僅僅是由于投資者沒有準(zhǔn)確地解讀中國當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟調(diào)整步伐。

現(xiàn)在，全世界都在擔(dān)心是否有可能發(fā)生比2015年8月更慘烈的股災(zāi)。雖然投資者們哀鴻遍野，但我們還是有必要進行進一步的研究。2015年股災(zāi)發(fā)生的原因之一，是滬市在此之前的驚人擴張。2015年6月，滬市股指已經(jīng)膨脹至兩年前的2.5倍，日均交易額更是翻了四番。在某種程度上，可以說政府歡迎甚至鼓勵股市的快速擴張。這不僅僅是由于股市可以帶來新鮮資本的流入，還因為它有助于抵消出口暫時下滑的不利影響。隨著資本市場的自由度有所提高，以及一系列復(fù)雜的新投資工具的引入，普通中國老百姓以及外國投資者也紛紛擠進了中國股市這條大船。由于政府的干預(yù)，許多投資者都抱有錯誤的見解，以為股市會無限地繼續(xù)擴張。也正因為如此，這種擴張必定是不可持續(xù)的。所以現(xiàn)在是對股市做出調(diào)整，以適應(yīng)經(jīng)濟的緩慢穩(wěn)定增長的時候了。

為中國經(jīng)濟帶來另一層負(fù)面因素的是貨幣改革。人民幣近期的貶值幅度其實不很大，不過卻由于相對缺乏透明度而遭到了嚴(yán)重非議。中國政府歷來喜歡關(guān)上門進行重大決策，好向外界展示“一致通過”的決定。因此，外界很難知道人民幣的貶值會走多遠(yuǎn)。不過到目前為止，貶值的幅度并不算大。2014年到2015年間，歐元相對美元的貶值幅度要遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)大于人民幣。再看看去年的幾大貨幣，多國政府也都有所動作，對貨幣政策非常公開的也不多。實際上，為了不損害本國經(jīng)濟，包括中國在內(nèi)的所有國家都在對貨幣進行干預(yù)。

另外，在評價中國經(jīng)濟的健康程度時，還有必要把近期的市場波動因素考慮進去。很多投資者和觀察人士都忽略了一點，那就是滬市的市值與整個中國經(jīng)濟的體量相比還是很小的。中國目前只有5%到10%的資本是通過發(fā)行證券的手段籌集的，而且目前在股市上自由流通的股份只占了GDP的25%到35%。而在大多數(shù)發(fā)達(dá)國家，這個比例都高達(dá)85%至100%，在美國更是達(dá)到了150%。因此從目前看，股市對中國的廣域經(jīng)濟并不會產(chǎn)生太大的實際影響。

另外，中國投資者的構(gòu)成嚴(yán)重依賴散戶。此外還有批評人士指出，中國仍然嚴(yán)重依賴國有產(chǎn)業(yè)，腐敗問題依然頻發(fā)，并且政府仍然有在重要時刻出手干預(yù)的習(xí)慣。然而事實上，中國正在從高度社會主義化的經(jīng)濟向自由市場經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)型，而自由市場所特有的波動性和風(fēng)險當(dāng)然也會一個不落的出現(xiàn)。在2001年時，國有企業(yè)約占中國GDP的30%，而現(xiàn)在這個比例已經(jīng)下降到GDP的25%。不過即便如此，國有企業(yè)仍然占據(jù)了6000萬個工作崗位。

中國經(jīng)濟仍然在以相對較快的速度發(fā)展，但它也要循序漸進地推進。中國的商業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型正在進行當(dāng)中，而目前經(jīng)濟格局的轉(zhuǎn)型也有助于中國穩(wěn)定地轉(zhuǎn)變成一個現(xiàn)代化經(jīng)濟體。對于投資者來說，關(guān)鍵是要逐個行業(yè)去看中國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展。盡管市場面臨波動，但是目前針對中國總體經(jīng)濟健康狀況的悲觀情緒，特別是投資者的悲觀情緒，還是過于夸大了。任何一個國家長期保持兩位數(shù)的經(jīng)濟增長都是不正常的。對于中國這個全球第二大經(jīng)濟體（如以購買力平價計算，則是全球第一大經(jīng)濟體）來說，5%到7%的經(jīng)濟增長率仍然是可圈可點的。因此，中國和全世界都需要重新適應(yīng)這種“新常態(tài)”。(財富中文網(wǎng))

本文作者Winter Nie是瑞士洛桑管理學(xué)院的教授。

譯者：樸成奎

The world seems to be waiting for doom and gloom in China, as U.S. stocks took another pounding Wednesday. And this isn’t the first time. When the Shanghai stock exchange index went into a precipitous dive last summer, followed by a 4% devaluation of the renminbi relative to the U.S.dollar, more than a few normally sober analysts began to panic. The result was a number of dire predictions that China’s economy might be facing a potentially catastrophic decline. And here we go again, leading 2016 with more cries of panic and market turmoil. Yet, the general stance that analysts, investors and even the media has taken, is overall much too pessimistic.

Far from experiencing a decline, China’s economy is trying to adjust to what amounts to “a new normal” with varying degrees of pain. From 2002 through 2008, annual growth averaged an astounding 12%. That overheated growth rate slowed to between 8% and 9% a year from 2008 through 2014, and it is currently averaging between 6% and 7%. The slower growth rate is a sign that China’s enormous economy has passed the startup stage and is beginning to mature. While this is certainly a new environment for investors to wrap their hands around, it doesn’t equate to economic Armageddon. As economies develop and become more massive in size, annual growth inevitably slows – but it still grows. The annual growth in GDP in the U.S. is around 2.2% and in the U.K., it is 1.7%.

Although the inevitability of China adjusting to a sustainable normalcy like in other large modern economies should be obvious, it does not diminish the impact of last summer’s crash or today’s panic. At its low point on August 26, the Shanghai index had dropped by more than 30% and investors had lost anywhere from $4 trillion to $5 trillion. This loss obviously contributed to painting a dismal picture for the future of China. The real question, however, is whether the dizzying drop was due to a decline in China’s economic health, or whether investors had simply failed to accurately interpret China’s current economic evolution.

Today, the world is trembling over a similar shock with levels even moving slightly lower than last August. Although investors may precipitately cry doom, it’s worth further exploring. A contributing factor to these large drops has been the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s stunning expansion. In June 2015, the index swelled 2.5 times its previous size of less than two years prior. The daily trading turnover quadrupled in the same time period. To a certain extent, the government welcomed and even encouraged the rapid expansion. Not only did it result in an influx of fresh capital, but it also helped offset a brief decline in exports. A more liberalized approach and the introduction of a flood of complex new investment vehicles encouraged ordinary Chinese citizens, as well as foreign investors, to climb on the bandwagon. Many investors had the mistaken notion that the market would continue expanding indefinitely thanks to strategic interventions by Beijing. At a certain point that approach was bound to become unsustainable, and it’s time to adjust to the reality of growth that is slow and steady.

What also seemed to add to the negativity around China’s economy was currency reform. China’s devaluation wasn’t substantial, but was heavily critiqued because of the relative lack of transparency. China traditionally likes to make its critical policy decisions behind closed doors in order to present a unanimous decision to the outside world. In this case, it was hard for anyone to know how far the devaluation would finally go. In the end, it did not go very far. In 2014 and 2015, the euro’s loss in comparison to the U.S. dollar was far more dramatic than the renminbi. Looking at several currencies in the past year, many governments have taken initiatives and few have been very open it. The bigger takeaway is that all countries including China have interfered in aims to help, not hurt their economies.

Also, when judging the economic health of China, recent market fluctuations need to be taken into perspective. What many investors and observers miss in their analysis, is the fact that the Shanghai stock market is still relatively small when compared to China’s economy as a whole. Only 5% to 10% of China’s capital is raised through equity issues, and the total free float of available shares on the market only accounts for 25% to 35% of GDP. In most developed countries that ratio is around 85% to 100%. In the U.S., it is 150%. So for now, stocks in China have a much less drastic effect on the real side of the larger economy.

The investor makeup has been too heavily focused on retail. Although skeptics point to the still heavy reliance on state-owned industries, continuing problems with corruption and a tendency to intervene at critical moments, the fact is that China is making steady progress from a heavily socialized economy to a free market with all the volatility and risks that that entails. Back in 2001, state-owned enterprises accounted for roughly 30% of China’s GDP. Today, the figure has declined to 25% of GDP. That said, state–owned enterprises still account for 60 million jobs.

China is evolving relatively quickly, but it needs to do so at a measured pace. Business transformation is under way and the landscape is changing in a way that also contributes to China stabilizing as a modern economy. The key for investors is to look at China’s business development on a sector by sector basis. The bottom line is that while markets have fluctuated, pessimism, especially by investors is exaggerated in regards to China’s overall economic health. It is abnormal for any country to sustain double–digit growth for a long period of time. Five to seven percent growth for the second largest economy (the first in Purchasing Power Parity) is still commendable. Both China and the world need to readjust to this new normal.

Winter Nie is a professor at IMD business school in Switzerland.