最近，美國總統奧巴馬發表了任內最后一次國情咨文演講。這是他最后一次面向全國民眾發表演講。通過這次機會，他大力表揚自己和他的政府。奧巴馬留下的總統遺產正在逐漸成形，此時，他會講述自己如何在任期內實現經濟形勢好轉，為美國描繪一個比總統候選人一貫鼓吹的前景更加美好的未來。

當然，奧巴馬有一些值得自夸的亮點。

亮點

奧巴馬總統肯定會夸贊他在任期之內如何實現了失業率下降。美國的失業率在2009年10月激增至10%之后，至2015年10月已經下降至5%，達到七年來的最低水平。

President Barack Obama’s final State of the Union address on Tuesday night is the last time he’ll have the full attention of the nation, and he’s expected to use the broadcast as an opportunity to give himself and his administration a sturdy pat on the back. As his presidential legacy starts to take shape, he tries to paint a much prettier picture of the nation than what’s circulating on the presidential campaign trail by chronicling the economic turnaround that occurred under his watch.

Certainly, there are some bright spots worthy of a humblebrag.

The Good

No doubt, President Obama will tout how the unemployment rate has declined during the his time in office. It reached a seven-year low of 5% in October 2015 after soaring as high as 10% in October 2009.

他也可能會講述標普500指數的出色表現——標普500被普遍認為是最重要的股票市場指數。雖然標普500指數在2015年下半年開始走弱，今年開年也遭遇不利，但過去七年106%的漲幅，也意味著奧巴馬可以篤定地說，他的政府在資本市場交出了令人滿意的答卷。

And he might touch on the stellar performance of the S&P 500—often considered the most important stock market indicator. Sure, it faltered in the second half of 2015 and got off to a rough start this year, but its 106% rise over the last seven years means Obama can safely say that his administration has been good to the capital markets.

但除了這些好的數據之外，還有一些令人不太樂觀的經濟指標。

弊端

奧巴馬政府的經濟政策因為沒有帶來工資上漲而頻遭批評。過去七年，美國平均小時工資僅上漲了7%。在競選活動中，特別是共和黨的總統候選人們一直認為，工資增長緩慢，導致中產階級在經濟衰退之后難以實現全面復蘇。

But beyond those top-line figures, there are a few economic measures that aren’t so rosy.

The Bad

The Obama administration’s economic policies have received criticism for not sparking wage growth. Median hourly pay is up just 7% over the past seven years. On the campaign trail, especially among Republican president hopefuls, candidates have argued that slow wage growth has kept the middle class from achieving a full post-recession recovery.

一方面美國人的工資漲幅相對低迷，而另一方面，美國人的非住房債務卻在增加，主要原因是日益增長的學生債務。在奧巴馬上任后的第二年，學生債務便超過了信用卡債務總額。雖然奧巴馬推出了多項貸款償還政策，希望讓大學生債務管理更加容易，但在如何降低高等教育成本這個問題上，他卻毫無建樹。

While wages have stayed relatively flat, Americans’ non-housing debt has increased, mainly because of surging student debt, which surpassed total credit card debt in Obama’s second year in office. The president has introduced several loan repayment policies to make college debt easier to manage, but he hasn’t figured out how to make higher education less expensive.

《今日美國》曾提出一種理論，認為學生債務正在威脅美國的住房自有率。《財富》雜志曾對這種理論潑過冷水，但由于其他許多原因，美國的住房自有率確實在下降。原因之一是美國人的收入不足以負擔一套住房。而信貸市場一直呈現緊縮的態勢。尚未從經濟衰退中完全恢復元氣的銀行，一直心有余悸，只愿意向最符合資格的抵押貸款申請人提供貸款。通常情況下，擁有住房都被認為是好事，因為它可以創造財富，但考慮到上一次房地產泡沫破裂時的情形，住房自有率下降不見得是壞事。

USA Today once floated a theory that student debtis eating into homeownership. Fortune threw cold water on that rationale in July, but homeownership is on the decline for a whole host of other reasons. One of them is that Americans aren’t earning enough money to afford a home. And the credit market has remained tight. Banks, still recovering from the recession, have been hesitant to lend to anyone but the most qualified mortgage applicants. Homeownership is usually considered a good thing since it fosters wealth creation, but given what happened the last time the housing bubble burst, it’s easy to argue that sinking homeownership isn’t necessarily a negative.

而下面這些經濟統計數據，奧巴馬在演講中絕不會提及。

丑陋的一面

奧巴馬任總統期間的失業率下降是好消息，這意味著美國人重新回到了工作崗位，但大量美國人退出了勞動力隊伍，也為這項政績的取得提供了巨大的幫助。直線下降的勞動參與率，很大程度上要歸因于嬰兒潮一代的退休，以及美國的失業人口在喪失信心之后放棄了求職。這也是2016年共和黨總統候選人在抨擊奧巴馬政府時，最喜歡的話題。上周，目前領先的共和黨候選人唐納德?特朗普在NBC的《與媒體見面》節目上表示“現在還有六千萬、七千萬、八千萬的美國人想要工作卻找不到工作，”他暗指的便是那些尚處在工作年齡但卻不在勞動力隊伍的美國人。

Then there are a few economic statistics that are down-right off-limits for Obama.

The Ugly

While the declining unemployment rate during the Obama presidency tells a positive story about Americans getting back to work, it’s also received a major assist from the large number of Americans who have dropped out of the workforce altogether. The plummeting labor participation rate is attributable—in part—to the retirement of baby boomers and to out-of-work Americans who are discouraged enough to give up the job hunt. This too is a favorite criticism of the Obama administration by 2016 Republican hopefuls. On Sunday, GOP frontrunner Donald Trump told NBC’s “Meet the Press,” that there are “60, 70, 80 million people out there that want to work that aren’t getting jobs,” alluding to Americans who are of working age but aren’t in the labor force.

雖然在2008年，奧巴馬在民粹主義思潮的推動下入主白宮，但這次，他應該會對不公平問題避而不談，因為自2009年至2014年，超級富豪們的實際收入出現了大幅增長，但底層99%的民眾的收入水平卻未有變化。（財富中文網）

譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

And despite the populist wave that propelled Obama to the White House in 2008, the president should steer clear of the inequality discussion on Tuesday night, since from 2009 through 2014, the über rich have experienced impressive real income growth, while the bottom 99% has seen almost none.