中國人民銀行日前決定，不再以過去幾年的人民幣-美元雙邊匯率為基準，而要參考一攬子貨幣對人民幣進行管理，這可能預示著人民幣兌美元匯率將進一步下跌。這也是一次切實的改革。

人民幣兌美元可能會走弱，因為中國正在放寬貨幣政策，而美國正在收緊銀根，美聯儲加息在即。這是一次真正的改革，因為如果人民幣被人為地與美元捆綁，就無法實現真正的自由化。

目前，中國最不需要的就是通過匯率渠道自動收緊貨幣政策。由于生產者物價指數以每年近6%的速度下降，而中國人民銀行的官方利率仍然高于4%，因此中國的實際利率已經很高了。

China’s central bank’s decision on Friday to manage the country’s currency against a basket of currencies, instead of pegging it solely to the dollar like it has for years, might foreshadow more weakening against the U.S. dollar. It is also actual reform.

The currency may weaken against the dollar because China’s monetary policies are loosening while those in the U.S. are finally starting to tighten, possibly beginning with interest rate rises this week. The move is also real reform because the currency can’t liberalize until it loses the artificial peg to the U.S. dollar.

Right now, the last thing that Beijing needs is an automatic tightening of monetary policy through the exchange rate channel. Real interest rates are already cripplingly high because producer prices are falling at an annual rate of nearly 6%, while the People’s Bank of China’s official interest rates are still well over 4%.

到目前為止，粗心的觀察者可能還沒有注意到美元急劇升值，以及連帶的人民幣升值。不過由Capital Economics提供的表格顯示，與鄰國貨幣相比，被迫升值的人民幣已經貴得多。

2014年以后飆升的藍線證明，相比亞洲鄰國和歐洲合作伙伴的貨幣，人民幣的價值提升要快得多。而下降的黑線顯示出，在十年的增長之后，人民幣兌美元匯率開始走弱。

Until now, casual watchers may not have noticed the dramatic climb the dollar has been on—and one the RMB has followed because of the peg. But the chart above, from Capital Economics, shows how the RMB, forced to rise lockstep with the skyrocketing U.S. dollar, has gotten much more expensive compared to its neighbors’ currencies.

That rising blue line starting in 2014 is the RMB getting much more expensive compared to the currencies of Asian neighbors and European partners. That declining black line is the RMB weakening against the U.S. dollar after ten years of gains.

另一張由ANZ提供的表格只關注了最近兩年的情況，也表現出類似的趨勢。

現在你慢慢能夠理解，為什么期待已久的中國貨幣改革，在醞釀了至少十年后，最近終于開始成行——首先是在今年8月，央行放松了人民幣與美元的綁定，人民幣幾天之內貶值了3%。到了12月，人民幣幾乎跟美元徹底脫鉤。（財富中文網）

譯者：嚴匡正

審校：任文科

Another chart from ANZ shows the same trend, just focused on the last two years.

Now you can begin to understand why China’s long-expected currency reform, at least a decade in the making, has recently been taking shape—first in August, when it loosened the peg to the dollar and the yuan fell by 3% over a couple days, and now in December, when that dollar peg is all but over.