近日，著名的債券投資人比爾?格羅斯表示，低利率讓毫無用處的“僵尸公司”（zombie corporations）得到了喘息機會，由此，他警告投資者，2016年需要對投資組合去風險化。

由格羅斯操盤的駿利全球無限制債券基金（Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund）規(guī)模達14億美元，他曾在今年早些時候表示，美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該將利率提高到更正常的水平，因為零利率水平正在傷害實體經(jīng)濟，破壞保險公司的資產(chǎn)負債表和養(yǎng)老基金。

格羅斯在其12月份的《投資展望》中寫道：“美聯(lián)儲按下貨幣按鈕的速度越快，持有金融資產(chǎn)的相對風險就越高。在2016年，我會逐漸進行投資組合去風險化，降低信用風險，減持股票投資，更加注重收回資金，而不是實現(xiàn)兩位數(shù)的投資回報。”

格羅斯警告，實體經(jīng)濟的負面反饋回路“將終止股市和債券的上行趨勢。投資者會像卡通人物大笨狼懷爾一樣四處張望，想知道還有多久才能觸底。”大笨狼懷爾總是在追逐嗶嗶鳥的時候，跳出寬闊的峽谷，在稀薄的空氣中飛行很長距離之后才往下看，最終摔下懸崖。

格羅斯把美聯(lián)儲比作賭場，他說，“美聯(lián)儲不停地印錢，就好像在生產(chǎn)數(shù)不清的籌碼，但他們永遠也不會贖回這些籌碼。實際上，用賭場來形容今天的全球貨幣政策，再恰當不過。”

“多年來，日本在量化寬松政策上變本加厲，歐洲央行行長馬里奧?德拉吉幾年前所說的‘無論付出什么代價’，就像賭博里加倍下注時的承諾一樣，不過是假象而已。”加倍下注法是指賭博時持續(xù)加倍下注，希望最終能贏，并且能獲得凈利潤。

歐洲央行“加倍下注時的承諾”發(fā)誓要通過擴大量化寬松和增加購買抵押品，使歐洲經(jīng)濟恢復(fù)平衡，使通脹達到2%的目標，直到歐元匯率下降，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟改善，通脹達到目標。

格羅斯認為，人為降低的匯率讓毫無用處的“僵尸公司”得到了喘息機會，卻破壞了保險公司和養(yǎng)老基金的商業(yè)模式，因為這些公司的收益太低，無法支付承諾的收益。格羅斯說：“低利率讓儲蓄者失去了‘錢生錢’的能力，無法使他們的退休基金得以增長，因此，他們所期望的未來生活方式也難以為繼。”

格羅斯說，這就是經(jīng)濟學家肯尼斯?羅格夫和卡門?萊因哈特所說的“金融抑制”。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

譯者:劉進龍/汪皓

審校：任文科

“I would gradually de-risk portfolios as we move into 2016. Less credit risk, reduced equity exposure, placing more emphasis on the return of your money than a double-digit return on your money.”

Bill Gross, the closely watched bond investor, on December 3 said that low interest rates are keeping alive “zombie corporations” that are unproductive and warned investors to de-risk portfolios into the new year.

Gross, who oversees the $1.4 billion Janus Global Unconstrained Bond Fund, has said since earlier this year that the U.S. central bank should raise interest rates to more normal levels, because zero-bound levels are harming the real economy and destroying insurance company balance sheets and pension funds.

“The faster and faster central bankers press the monetary button, the greater and greater the relative risk of owning financial assets,” Gross wrote in his December Investment Outlook. “I would gradually de-risk portfolios as we move into 2016. Less credit risk, reduced equity exposure, placing more emphasis on the return of your money than a double-digit return on your money.”

Gross warned that the negative feedback loop from the real economy “will halt the ascent of stock and bond prices, and investors will look around like Wile E. Coyote wondering how far is down.” The cartoon character Wile E. Coyote was forever leaping across wide chasms in pursuit of the Road Runner, flying long distances in thin air, but then looking down and falling off a cliff.

Gross likens central banks to casinos. “They print money as if they were manufacturing endless numbers of chips that they’ll never have to redeem. Actually, a casino is an apt description for today’s global monetary policy.”

“Japan for years has doubled down on its Quantitative Easing, and Mario Draghi’s statement of several years’ past, ‘Whatever it takes’ – is a Martingale promise in disguise,” Gross said. Martingale is a gambling system of continually doubling the stakes in the hope of an eventual win that must yield a net profit.

The “Martingale promise” vows to get the Euroland economy back to even and inflation up to 2% by increasing QE and the collateral it buys until the Euro currency declines, the euro zone economy improves, and inflation approaches target, Gross said.

Artificially low interest rates have kept alive “zombie corporations that are unproductive” and destroy business models such as insurance companies and pension funds because yields are too low to pay promised benefits, Gross said. “They turn savers into financial eunuchs, unable to reproduce and grow their retirement funds to maintain expected future lifestyles.”

Economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart label this “financial repression,” Gross said.