就在美國正要迎來感恩節后瘋狂購物的“黑色星期五”之際，中國A股卻扎扎實實地體驗了一次悲傷的“黑色星期五”。

今天，滬指重挫逾5%失守3500點，創股災以來最大單日跌幅，券商板塊全線暴跌，創業板大跌逾6%。截至收盤，滬指跌5.48%報3436.3點，成交4643億元；深成指跌6.31%報11961.7點，成交6785億元。

實際上，相對A股曾經的最高點，指數目前已經回落了40%，但這基本上說明不了中國的經濟增長狀況。

沒錯，中國經濟確實在放緩，因此，許多投資者就開始非常擔心。美國投資者似乎很容易就會為此類新聞而擔驚受怕。美聯儲9月份決定維持聯邦基金利率不變，聯儲主席珍妮特?耶倫在新聞發布會上就此進行說明時，曾16次直接或間接提到中國。她擔心中國經濟放緩可能引發連鎖反應，從而拖累美國經濟增長。許多悲觀主義者甚至宣稱這意味著“中國故事就此結束”。

可以斷定，中國GDP再也不會像過去十年那樣以每年約10%的速度增長了。如今7%左右的增速，當然比以前慢，但我們需要正確看待這些數字。2003年，“金磚四國”一詞的發明者吉姆?奧尼爾及其高盛團隊曾預計，到2015年，中國的實際GDP增長率將只有5.2%；到2017年，這個數字將跌至5%以下。但實際上，中國經濟減速并不讓人意外，沒有哪個經濟體能永遠以10%的速度增長。回報率會不斷下降，而且富裕水平越高，經濟增速就越慢。和奧尼爾的預期相比，中國目前的表現已經相當好了。

十年前，中國經濟年增速超過10%，當時中國GDP約為2.5萬億美元。這個數字每年都增長2500億美元左右，相當于美國路易斯安那州或者菲律賓的經濟總量。目前，中國GDP增幅約為7%（但GDP總量超過10萬億美元），這實際上等于每年增長出一個賓夕法尼亞州來。這樣的發展速度可不是“還行”所能形容的了的。

中國股市確實已從高點回落40%，但這更多的是非理性泡沫破裂后的調整，而非經濟放緩的體現。對A股下跌發表評論時，許多分析師都忘了它曾在一年時間里上漲150%。就算最近大幅下滑，但目前A股仍比上年同期高50%。而且，由于多種原因，A股和中國經濟增長之間的聯系很微弱。

過去20年中國經濟飛速發展。然而，除了偶有非理性上漲或回調，A股基本不為所動。今年股市出現調整未必表明中國經濟出現了嚴重問題。A股不會使中國GDP增速放慢，因為股市在中國居民金融資產中占比還不到15%。此外，保證金貸款還不到銀行總資產的2%。

有人說，經濟放緩將在中國引發嚴重債務危機，從而造成金融領域混亂，讓中國陷入衰退。中國官方數據顯示，包括企業和政府在內，中國的總債務約為GDP的180%。有人認為，加上其他政府債務，中國的整體債務/GDP比例可能達到250%。這確實很嚇人，但我們還要看看中國的資產情況。據估算，經過30年的增長，中國積累的資產約為GDP的10倍。地方政府融資平臺以及影子銀行體系估計約占中國GDP的25%-50%，相關改革已經啟動，風險正在下降。居民存款接近中國GDP的一半，資產規模巨大，而且資本跨境流動水平仍然有限，在這種情況下，那些想借中國大崩盤來發財的人還得再等很長一段時間了。

看空中國的人還會層出不窮，但中國將再次讓他們感到失望。和這些人的說法相反，中國故事遠未結束，這個偉大的故事才剛剛翻開一個新的篇章。

Baizhu Chen是南加州大學馬歇爾商學院教授。ImaadZuberi是風投公司Avenue Ventures副董事長。（財富中文網）

譯者：Charlie

校對：詹妮

Contrary to what these people say, the China story is far from over. It’s just the beginning of a new chapter of this great story.

Its stock market has dropped 40% from its peak, but that says little about the country’s economic growth.

China is slowing down. This has caused serious concern for many, as investors across the U.S. seem easily spooked by any news regarding the topic. Just the other week, in her press conference explaining the decision to leave the targeted federal funds rate unchanged, Fed Chief Janet Yellen invoked China 16 times, directly or indirectly. She expressed fears that China’s slowing economy could cause a ripple effect and drag down U.S. growth. Many pessimists even declared this to be the “end of China” story.

Chinese GDP is no longer growing at about 10% per year as it has in the last decade. Today, growth stands around 7%. That’s certainly slower, but we need to those figures into perspective. In 2003, Jim O’Neill, the father of “BRIC,” and his Goldman Sachs GS -0.67% team predicted that by 2015, China’s real GDP growth rate would only be 5.2%, and would drop below 5% by 2017. The slowdown of the Chinese economy was not indeed unexpected. No country can grow at 10% forever. Diminishing returns will kick in and the richer the country is, the slower the growth will be. Judging by O’Neill’s prediction, China is currently doing quite well.

Ten years ago when China was growing at over 10% a year, its GDP was about $2.5 trillion. Every year, China added around $250 billion to its economy, equivalent to adding the GDP of Louisiana, or the Philippines. With GDP growth today at about 7% (or over $10 trillion), China’s economy is essentially creating a new state the size of Pennsylvania every year. This is more than decent.

It is true that China’s stock market has dropped 40% from its peak, but that’s less an indication of China’s slowdown than a correction from an irrationally engineered bubble. When analysts commented on China’s stock market decline, many ignored when it rose by 150% within the last year. Even with the recent stock market turmoil, China’s stock market today is still up by 50% from last year. For many reasons, China’s equity market bears little relationship to its economic growth.

During the last 20 years when China was experiencing rapid growth, its stock market barely budged barring occasional irrational exuberance and correction. The correction of its stock market this year is not necessarily an indication of some serious problems in China’s economy. Its stock market will not drag down its GDP growth rate, given that less than 15% of Chinese household financial assets are in the stock market. What’s more, margin loans are less than 2% of total bank assets.

Some suggest that the slowdown will create a serious debt crisis in China, causing mayhem in the financial world and throw China into depression. The total debt, including corporate and government, is about 180% of GDP, according to the Chinese government statistics. Some argue that by including other governmental obligations, China’s comprehensive debt-to-GDP ratio could reach 250%. This is indeed alarming until one looks at the asset side. It is estimated that China has, after 30 years of growth, accumulated an asset about 10 times of its GDP. Reforms on the local government financing platform and the shadow banking system, which is estimated to be around 25% to 50% of GDP, are already under way. The risk is reducing. With a national savings rate close to 50% of GDP, a huge asset size and still limited international capital mobility, those who want to profit from China’s doomsday situation will have to wait for a long time.

There will be no shortage of pessimists going forward, but China will again disappoint them. Contrary to what these people say, the China story is far from over. It’s just the beginning of a new chapter of this great story.

Baizhu Chen is a professor at the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California. ImaadZuberi is vice chairman of Avenue Ventures.