????在眾多影響之中，首當其沖的可能就是旅游業和消費者支出。這些方面受到的打擊最為明顯，但其持續時間也可能最短。畢竟，想想看，《查理周刊》（Charlie Hebdo）今年1月遭受襲擊之后，看起來也并沒有對法國經濟產生持續影響。但要說完全沒有影響又是肯定不可能的，最無法具體估量的影響在于政策制定方面。這種影響可能是間接的，但卻又具有深遠意義。

????值得一提的是，恐怖襲擊帶來的影響可能很深遠，但卻未必都是負面的。

????1、公共監控級別可能提升

????幾乎可以肯定，類似巴黎恐怖襲擊這樣的行動，必定需要縝密的預謀和較強的協調溝通，這其中大部分預謀都會利用到電子通信技術。因此，此次事件之后，歐洲輿論對于政府監控的爭論將明顯傾向于支持，因為選民將更加重視安全，而降低對隱瞞賭博、不忠和逃稅等問題的關注。

????但我們必須清楚，即使今后加強監控，也未必能禁絕這類襲擊。事實上，法國最近剛剛通過了一項反恐法案，已經采取了歐洲最為強力的監控措施，但看起來并沒什么作用。這次襲擊也讓支持保護隱私的人倍感尷尬，其中甚至包括蘋果公司CEO蒂姆·庫克，他曾表示個人通訊隱私權神圣不可侵犯。

????而在英國，兩周前，英國內閣以臭名昭著的“竊聽者憲章”（Snooper’s Charter）為藍本重新提出了類似草案。該法案不僅首次明確允許警方使用黑客手段進入公民電腦系統，收集大量私人通信數據，還以法律形式要求電信公司和數據供應商，協助警方獲取加密信息。可以想見，此次巴黎恐怖襲擊之后，該法案在英國國會獲得通過的可能性大大增強，監控手段甚至可能進一步強化。

????2、歐洲移民政策可能完蛋

????雖然目前消息尚未確認，但一些跡象已經顯示，至少有一位襲擊巴黎的恐怖分子是以難民身份經希臘邊境進入歐洲的。這恰恰是歐洲右翼——不論溫和派還是激進派一直在警告的。面對如此暴力襲擊，歐洲國家收容大批穆斯林移民的熱情將會大受打擊。

????事實上，穆斯林移民原本就難以融入當地社會，歐洲各國也并不歡迎難民，不排斥已經算是好的了。因此，匈牙利總理歐爾班·維克托、法國極右翼政黨“國民陣線”領導人瑪麗娜·勒龐等歐洲政要，將會堅持反移民觀點，態度甚至會更加強硬。

????更為重要的是，歐盟委員會此前按固定配額分配16萬難民的計劃本就困難重重，如今更將走入死胡同。如果襲擊加劇了歐洲國家對于移民問題的分歧，那么，其他經濟事務方面的決策，也有可能會受到波及陷入停滯。

????3、申根協議可能終結

????持申根簽證可以自由出入歐洲區域內各國，這是歐盟最偉大的成就之一。然而，今年的難民危機已迫使歐盟成員國相繼重啟邊檢制度。最先恢復的是巴爾干半島國家，當成千上萬涌來的移民造成恐慌后，他們不得不在邊境筑起了大范圍的鐵絲網。如今，瑞典、德國這些移民青睞的目的地國家也祭出了邊檢這一招。

????如果倡導邊境自由出入的“申根協議”土崩瓦解，這不但會打擊歐盟內部的跨境貿易、貨運業務，也很可能在更為微妙地層面上削弱歐盟區域的商業競爭力。

????4、默克爾的政治生涯或走到盡頭？

????對德國總理默克爾而言，巴黎恐怖襲擊如同一柄雙刃劍。在網絡安全方面，她是保護隱私權的重要支持者（畢竟她本人就曾被美國國安局竊聽）；而對于以穆斯林為主的龐大移民，她主張大幅吸收，一副“我們應付得了”的態度，這無異于下了一筆不小的政治賭注。

????縱觀默克爾的政治生涯，她曾在一場場展示領導力的盛大演出中，勇敢地賭上了政治資本。但這次，她很可能押錯了注。此前，由于支持針對歐元區邊緣國家的七次救助，默克爾在國內很不得人心，但總體算是挺了過來，但這次卻有些不妙，她的選民支持率已經下滑。巴黎的襲擊不太可能給默克爾的政治生涯畫上句號，卻會助長批評者的聲勢。批評人士會指責默克爾過于樂觀，低估了穆斯林移民的風險。

????假如默克爾下臺，也許不會迅速危及德國經濟，但如果繼任的德國總理（可能是現任德國財長沃夫岡·朔伊布勒）和她的觀念不同，拒絕資助其他歐元區國家，那么，歐元區今后就會碰到麻煩。

????5、敘利亞和平有望

????從地緣局勢的最新進展看，政治談判尚有光明在前，并非世界末日。雖然沒有巴黎恐怖襲擊的風險那么引人矚目，但最近維也納會談的成果也帶來一線希望。

????在維也納，約20個國家和國際機構就敘利亞過渡為新政府治國的日程安排達成一致。會議制定了明確的政治目標，認為若要協同采取有效打擊“伊斯蘭國”的軍事行動，關鍵的前提便是實現過渡。敘利亞重獲和平將意味著當前全球最大的地緣政治風險被消除。如果這一問題達成和解，那么，歐盟和俄羅斯就烏克蘭沖突達成和解的幾率也會提高。（財富中文網）

????翻譯：Pessy

????審校：夏林

????It is, of course, far too early to do anything more than speculate. But common sense says that there must be consequences for business and for the European economy from the attacks in Paris that appear to have added a whole new dimension to the threat from Islamic State. The first-round impacts, such as a likely hit to tourism and consumer spending (think of all those Christmas markets that make such juicy soft targets) are the most obvious and likely to be the most short-lived. There was, after all, no discernible lasting economic impact from the attacks on the magazine Charlie Hebdo earlier this year. But there are obvious imponderables that could have huge, if indirect, impacts, most of them through the policy channel. Importantly, not all of them are negative.

????1、Surveillance is likely to increase.

????The European debate on surveillance is likely to lurch sharply in favor of snooping, as voters put more emphasis on security and less on concealing their secret gambling habits, infidelity and tax evasion. Attacks as sophisticated and coordinated as these require a lot of advance planning and communication, and it seems hardly credible that a large part of that would not have been electronic. It doesn’t necessarily follow that more surveillance will stop this kind of attack—France only recently passed a law with the most far-reaching snooping powers in Europe, and it doesn’t seem to have done much good—but the attacks are a big embarrassment for all those, notably Apple AAPL -2.90% CEO Tim Cook, who argue that the privacy of individuals’ communications is sacrosanct. The U.K. two weeks ago re-introduced a watered-down bill of its notorious “Snooper’s Charter”, which for the first time explicitly allows police to hack into computers, and collect large volumes of personal communications data. It also legally obliges telecoms and data companies to help police operations to bypass encryption. The bill now faces a much easier passage through parliament, and may even be beefed up again in reaction to the attacks.

????2、Europe’s migrant policy is toast.

????Nothing has been confirmed yet, but some evidence points to at least one of the attackers having gained entry into Europe at the Greek border, posing as a refugee. This is precisely what Europe’s right, in both its polite and coarser wings, has been warning about. The willingness to accept large volumes of hard-to-assimilate Muslim migrants, already lukewarm at best, will suffer badly from such revelations. Figures like Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban, or French National Front leader Marine Le Pen will feel vindicated and be emboldened in their anti-immigrant rhetoric. The European Commission’s plan to distribute 160,000 migrants across the continent by fixed quotas, already running into huge difficulties, is now dead in the water. More importantly, if the attacks deepen divisions over how to deal with migrant flows, then the risk of that issue paralyzing decisions on other economic matters increases.

????3、The end of border-free Europe.

????Getting rid of internal borders was one of the great achievements of the European Union. But the migrant crisis has seen one country after another reinstate border checks–first in the Balkans, where the sense of panic at being overrun by the arriving thousands has led to a proliferation of wire fences, but now in the ‘preferred destination’ countries of Sweden and Germany. If the so-called ‘Schengen’ border-free zone collapses, then that could hit both cross-border trade and the trucking business, as well as doing broader, but less tangible, damage to business confidence from seeing Europe unravel.

????4、The end of Angela Merkel?

????The Paris attacks are a double-whammy for the German Chancellor. She has been one of the biggest advocates of privacy over security (she was, after all, spied on by the NSA), and she took a huge political gamble with her “We’ll manage it” approach to absorbing a vast flow of largely Muslim migrants. For once in her political life, she staked her political capital on a big, brave show of leadership, and it looks more and more like a losing bet. Her poll ratings, which survived seven hugely unpopular Eurozone bailouts, have slumped. The Paris outrages are unlikely to finish her off, but they will embolden those who criticise her for complacency about the risks of Muslim immigration. There may be no immediate threat to the economy from her departure, but if she is replaced, it will likely be by someone (maybe Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaueble) who doesn’t share her qualms about ejecting fellow members of the Eurozone the next time they get into trouble.

????5、Peace in Syria

????It’s not all doom and gloom. The attacks risk overshadowing the outcome of today’s talks in Vienna, where the major powers agreed on a timeline for a transition to a new government in Syria. Agreeing to a political target is the key prerequisite for effective, coordinated military action against Islamic State (building on this week’s operations against ‘Jihadi John‘ and the retaking of Sinjar in northern Iraq by Kurdish militias. Peace in Syria would end the biggest geopolitical risk in the world today. It could also improve the chances of a settlement between Europe and Russia over the Ukraine conflict, another big drag on both sides’ economies.