????于九月上旬，米爾肯研究所在北京的新聞發(fā)布會上首次發(fā)表了中國最佳表現城市指標，展示中國經濟發(fā)展表現最杰出的城市。我們進行這項中國城市排名研究是為了解答兩個問題：中國哪些城市的經濟表現最有活力？為什么？

????對于出席新聞發(fā)布會的部分中國記者而言，這兩個問題的答案似乎呼之欲出；中國經濟表現最具活力的城市當然是北京、上海、廣州及深圳這幾個最大的城市。

????同類排名普遍將這幾個中國大型城市置于榜首，但根據我們的研究準則，名列前茅的城市卻另有他選。在進一步介紹調研的細節(jié)之前，我希望先回答幾位記者曾提出的另一個問題：為什么要進行這項研究？

????我們的指標有三個目的：第一，它可幫助商業(yè)機構、投資者、商會、政府官員、發(fā)展機構、學術與公共政策組監(jiān)察及評估他們工作和經商城市的經濟表現。第二，它提供了改善城市表現的大方向。第三，它提供了一個發(fā)掘相對未開發(fā)的市場及商機的參考。米爾肯研究所自1999年發(fā)布年度美國最佳表現城市排名以來，一直都為以上三方面帶來貢獻。指標以嶄新的角度，客觀地衡量各區(qū)域的經濟表現。

????自2014年在新加坡成立米爾肯研究所亞洲中心后，研究所開始發(fā)布亞洲最佳表現城市報告。而今年，研究所進一步擴展最佳表現城市系列，并首次發(fā)表以中國為核心的研究報告。研究所于九月在新加坡舉行了為期兩天的亞洲峰會，向四百多名參與者公佈有關報告，并就中國未來發(fā)展進行了激烈的討論。

????中國最佳表現城市指標由九個部分組成，衡量城市短期（一年）和中期（五年）的表現。 為了更準確地判斷未來的經濟增長趨勢，指標研究了每個城市的就業(yè)及收入增長、地區(qū)生產總值（GRP）、外商直接投資（FDI）和高增值產業(yè)的實力。這個方法能夠有利進行多方面的評估，指出城市經濟增長背后的主要因素。

????此次報告一共研究了266個中國地級市及以上級別城市的經濟數據。研究城市被分為兩個組別：大型城市，包括34個一線及二線城市；中小型城市，包括232個三線城市。這兩個組別的城市經濟表現排名均基于實際的經濟表現，而非預測的經濟成就。

????令人驚訝的是，成都超越了上海、北京和深圳，憑著其卓越、優(yōu)秀的表現在全國一線及二線城市中位居第一。在九個經濟表現指標中，成都有七項名列前十名。多項優(yōu)勢包括人力資本、中央政府支持、成熟的高端航空和飛機設計業(yè)和最新崛起的電子制造業(yè)均拉動著成都的快速經濟增長。

????除了重慶以外，經濟表現排前十名的大部分一線、二線城市均位于長江三角洲、珠江三角洲及京津唐地區(qū)的城市群。我們從此得出的結論為，中國的未來將非常依靠城市群和中小規(guī)模城市的發(fā)展來獲得增長動力。因此，中國內陸擁有巨大的增長潛力。

????我們的數據分析亦指出中國最具經濟活力的城市均具有一些重要的共通點，包括產業(yè)多元化、重視高科技產業(yè)、良好的交通網絡、持續(xù)地發(fā)展基礎建設及培養(yǎng)人才，及具有吸引外資的能力。

????在我們的三線城市經濟表現排名中，蘇州市居于榜首。三線城市位列前十名的，有七個來自江蘇省，全部隸屬于長江三角洲經濟區(qū)；這些城市都受惠于鄰近上海的地緣優(yōu)勢，并能享受匯集人才與先進技術的好處。

????報告的排名反映我們深信可持續(xù)的社會及經濟發(fā)展取決于三個最基本的因素：人力資本、就業(yè)機會和融資機會。中國近期的經濟放緩也預示著，目前是關鍵的時機去了解哪些城市或地區(qū)在進行改革和放眼未來上表現更杰出。

????本文作者黃華躍先生是米爾肯研究所董事總經理、研究員及中國報告聯合撰寫人。

????In early September the Milken Institute launched its pioneering Best-Performing Cities China Index at a press briefing in Beijing. The index identifies the Chinese urban areas with the most exceptional economic performance. With this new ranking of Chinese cities we attempted to answer two questions: which cities in China have the most dynamic economies, and why?

????To some of the Chinese reporters attending the press briefing, the question seemed so obvious as to be not worth asking. Of course, they replied, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have the most dynamic economies in the country. Those are, after all, among the biggest cities in China.

????Putting China’s big cities at the top of such rankings is the norm. But those urban areas are not the most dynamic cities in China according to our index criteria. Before I get into some of the details, I want to address another question some of the reporters asked: why undertake such a study at all?

????The goal of the index is threefold. First, it can help businesses, investors, industry associations, government officials, development agencies, academic and public policy groups monitor and evaluate the economic performance of cities where they work and do business. Second, it suggests approaches to improving cities’ performance. Third, the index provides a vehicle to explore relatively untapped markets and business opportunities. That has been the value of the annual Best-Performing Cities ranking in the United States, launched by the Milken Institute in 1999. It objectively measures regional economic performance in a way that had not been done previously.

????In 2014, following the establishment of the Singapore-based Milken Institute Asia Center, the Institute developed its first Best-Performing Cities Asia Index. This year, we expanded the Best-Performing Cities series with this report centered on China. The China report was made available to the 400 attendees of the Institute’s two-day Asia Summit, held this September in Singapore, and engendered lively discussions about China’s future growth.

????The Best-Performing Cities China index is based on nine components that take into account both short term (one year) and middle term (five year) measurements. To better predict future growth, the index weighs jobs and income growth, gross regional product (GRP), foreign direct investment (FDI), and the strength of high value-added industries in each city. This approach yields a multidimensional assessment, and sheds light on the factors behind the cities’ growth.

????In terms of methodology, we ranked 266 Chinese cities at the prefecture level and above. Index rankings are divided into two categories: the largest-cities group includes 34 first- and second-tier cities; the small and medium-sized group includes 232 third-tier cities. The two groups are separately ranked based on actual economic performance, rather than projected success.

????To the surprise of many, Chengdu surpassed Shanghai, Beijing and Shenzhen to be the strong No. 1 among first- and second-tier cities with its outstanding and unrivalled performance. The city secured Top 10 positions in seven of the index’s nine components. Advantages such as human capital, central government support, established industries in high-end aerospace and aircraft design, and a more recently developed electronics-manufacturing sector, are driving Chengdu’s success in economic growth.

????Except for Chongqing, most of the top ten first- and second-tier cities in economic performance are part of the urban clusters of the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Jing-Jin-Tang (the Beijing, Tianjin and Tanggu corridor). We conclude that China’s future will largely depend on the development of urban clusters and small and medium-sized cities. As a result, inland China still possesses great potential for growth.

????Our analysis also shows that Chinese cities with the most dynamic economies share some important characteristics. Among them are diversified industries, a focus on high-tech, improved transportation networks, continued efforts to develop infrastructure and the talent pool, and the ability to attract foreign investment.

????Of the third-tier cities we ranked, Suzhou came in at No. 1. Seven of the Top 10 best-performing third-tier cities are in Jiangsu province, and all are part of the Yangtze River Delta economic region. They have all benefited from Shanghai’s proximity, as well as an influx of talent and technology.

????The report’s rankings reflect our belief that sustainable social and economic development relies fundamentally on three pillars: human capital, job creation, and access to capital. The recent slowdown of China’s economy indicates that it is more important than ever to understand which cities or regions are doing a better job of implementing change and looking to the future. By benchmarking the performance of Chinese cities and regions on a continuing annual basis, the Milken Institute aims to provide key insights into China’s growth opportunities for investors, policy makers and observers of China’s development.

????Perry Wong is Managing Director, Research at the Milken Institute, and co-author of the Best-Performing Cities China Report.