????過去一個月，蘋果公司的股價遭遇重創，但隨著新款iPhone手機的預定量即將打破去年的1000萬臺記錄，蘋果的股價趨勢也將迎來新的變化。2015年9月15日，蘋果公司股價的收盤價達到每股116.28美元，而且除了暫時性的震蕩之外，這一穩定增長的趨勢很有可能繼續下去。即便有報道稱蘋果將推遲發布Apple Watch的新操作系統，以修補系統漏洞，但這一消息不會對公司股票造成太大影響。

????盡管市場對蘋果新款手機的前景表示擔憂，但iPhone 6S還是成功累積了穩定的預定量，其中也包括來自蘋果第二大市場——中國市場的大量訂單。諷刺的是，對中國經濟的擔憂，恰恰是過去幾個月導致蘋果公司股價下跌的主要因素，由此看來，市場的擔憂有過慮之嫌。

????更重要的是，新iPhone手機銷售的火爆，意味著這款設備的受歡迎程度并未減退。有分析師擔心iPhone手機的銷量已經達到了頂峰，這是因為他們忽視了蘋果產品的粘性。瑞銀集團分析師在2014年進行的一項分析顯示，相比其他業內領先的科技公司，蘋果龐大的生態系統具有更高的用戶粘性。

????例如，iPhone用戶有可能同時使用MacBook或iPad，這些產品通過一個通用的操作系統可以與手機無縫整合。而其他設備卻與iPhone手機不兼容或更難同步。據IDC統計，新Apple Watch的銷量也呈現出上升趨勢，而這也需要與iPhone配套使用。

????對于消費者而言，這意味著放棄使用iPhone選擇其他手機，不僅價格昂貴，而且會帶來諸多不便。除非有競爭對手生產出一款比iPhone手機更優秀的革命性產品，否則的話，消費者，尤其是同時使用其他蘋果設備的消費者，沒有理由更換手機品牌。

????2015年第二季度，在智能手機總體銷量增長速度下降的情況下，蘋果相對于其主要競爭對手三星公司的市場份額持續增加，蘋果的巨大優勢由此可見一斑。據高德納統計，蘋果的市場份額從一年前的12.2%增加到14.6%，而三星的市場份額卻從26.2%下降到21.9%。

????此外，蘋果iPhone手機銷量增長的另外一個重要推動力，來自之前手機的更新換代，因此新的以舊換新選擇應該對銷量增長有巨大的推動作用。威瑞森和美國電話電報公司已計劃為消費者提供更靈活的以舊換新方案。《華爾街日報》報道稱，約1490萬美國消費者有資格在今年年底更換新機，在2014年iPhone 6發布的時候，這一數字為530萬人。

????此外，蘋果也將為購買者提供新的購買方案，允許iPhone用戶按月分期付款，每年還可以免費升級到新款手機，并有權選擇新的運營商。這與無線運營商提供的方案沒有太大區別，只不過蘋果公司提供的方案并不便宜，但無論如何，這些方案必能加強iPhone手機的前景。因為購買長期合約的用戶需要接受特定運營商許多年的約束，這令他們很是失望。

????此次蘋果還推出了面向商業應用的尺寸更大、功能更強的iPad Pro和下一代Apple TV，這些產品也會增加公司的收入，而且蘋果肯定正在開發其他有趣的產品，但在未來幾個月，新iPhone手機必將成為市場關注的焦點。到目前為止，一切似乎都很順利。蘋果公司的股票肯定會上漲。

????漲幅會有多大？我們無法預測，但在2014年第4季度iPhone 6的季度銷量公布之后，蘋果的股價漲幅超過20%，這或許能夠為我們提供一些參考。

????本文作者S.庫瑪爾是一位科技和商業評論員。他曾在科技、媒體和電信投資銀行工作。他未持有蘋果公司或本文提到的其他公司的股票。（財富中文網）

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

????審校：任文科

????Apple’s stock has taken quite a beating during the past month, but that tide is likely about to shift as preorders for the new iPhone are on pace to beat last year’s 10 million record. As of the market close on September 15, 2015, the stock was up to $116.28 per share and this steady climb will likely continue except for temporary blips. Even news that Apple is delaying its new operating system for the Apple Watch to fix some bugs is unlikely to hurt the stock much.

????Despite market worries to the contrary, Apple AAPL 0.11% has racked up solid preorders for the iPhone 6S. This includes robust orders in China as well, Apple’s second largest market. Concerns about China’s economy, ironically, were a major factor in the company’s stock price plunge of the last few months, so it seems that the market’s fears were premature.

????More importantly, the strong start to the new iPhone’s sales indicates that the popularity of the device has not waned. Analysts who worry whether the iPhone has peaked are ignoring the stickiness factor for Apple products. The vast ecosystem that Apple has created is stickier than for most other leading tech companies, a 2014 analysis done by UBS analysts showed.

????iPhone owners, for example, are likely to use MacBooks or iPads, which integrate seamlessly with their phone through a common operating system, rather than alternate devices which may be incompatible or more difficult to sync. The new Apple Watch, whose sales are trending up according to IDC, also requires the iPhone.

????What this means is that switching from the iPhone can be expensive and inconvenient for consumers. Unless a competitor produces a game-changing device that is substantially better than the iPhone, there is little motivation for consumers, especially those who use other Apple devices, to switch.

????As proof of Apple’s superiority, its market share in the second quarter of 2015 rose in comparison to its leading competitor, Samsung (although the growth rate for total smartphone sales declined). Apple’s market share rose to 14.6% from 12.2% a year ago, while Samsung’s declined to 21.9% from 26.2%, according to Gartner research.

????In addition, Apple’s iPhone sales are driven heavily by the replacement of previous phones, so the new upgrade options available should help that process along considerably. Companies like Verizon VZ -0.39% and AT&T T 0.46% are now offering plans that give consumers more flexibility; about 14.9 million U.S. customers will be eligible for upgrades at the end of this year, which is a big leap from 5.3 million in 2014 when the iPhone 6 launched, The Wall Street Journal notes.

????Then of course there is the new financing plan that Apple itself will now offer buyers, which allows iPhone owners to pay for the phone in monthly installments and upgrade to the new model every year for free and pick a new carrier. It’s not very different from what the wireless carriers are offering and Apple’s plan isn’t cheap, but in any case, it should bolster the iPhone’s prospects due to the frustration users have felt for years about being tied down to specific carriers on long-term contracts.

????Even though the larger and more powerful iPad Pro targeted at businesses and the next generation Apple TV could also boost Apple’s fortunes, and the company doubtlessly has other interesting products in the works, the story in the coming months will be all about the iPhone. And, so far at least, it seems like a good story. Expect the stock to pop.

????By how much? It’s impossible to know for sure but if the stock market response to the first full quarter of sales for the iPhone 6 is any guide, Apple shares went up by more than 20% in the month after Q4 2014 numbers were released.

????S. Kumar is a tech and business commentator. He has worked in technology, media, and telecom investment banking. He does not own any shares of Apple or other companies mentioned in this article.