????美聯(lián)儲9月份貨幣政策會議已經(jīng)結束，利率依然為零。

????它做出這樣的決定有理有據(jù)。新興市場經(jīng)濟體面臨著不同程度的麻煩，全球市場的反應則是能源價格一直較低以及美元走強。在這些因素的共同影響下，美國的通脹率處于相當?shù)偷乃健Ｃ缆?lián)儲公開市場委員會成員預測的2015年通脹率中值僅為0.4%，遠低于2%的官方目標。近10年來，美國通脹率一直未曾觸及這樣的水平。

????同時，美聯(lián)儲對充分就業(yè)時對應的長期失業(yè)率預估持續(xù)下調。2014年9月，美聯(lián)儲認為充分就業(yè)時的長期失業(yè)率將不低于5.2%。盡管目前這個數(shù)字是5.1%，但鑒于長期失業(yè)者以及非自愿兼職者如此之多，有理由認為官方對充分就業(yè)時失業(yè)率水平預估還有很大的下行空間。美聯(lián)儲公開市場委員會成員目前預計的長期失業(yè)率中值為4.9%。

????盡管通脹率一直沒有達到美聯(lián)儲的目標，盡管美聯(lián)儲下調了充分就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟增長預期，但觀察一下公開市場委員會成員各自的預測數(shù)字就會發(fā)現(xiàn)，他們似乎相信今年底以前這些指標仍將上升。

????那么，美聯(lián)儲究竟為什么會一直這樣認為呢？正如《華爾街日報》今年8月報道的那樣，失業(yè)率下降總會造成通脹率上升最多也只能算是一種牽強的理論。呈下降狀態(tài)的失業(yè)率和通脹率的關系如下圖所示：

????The Fed’s September meeting has come and gone, and interest rates remain at zero.

????The reasoning behind the Fed’s decision is sound. With emerging market economies in various states of disarray, global markets have responded by keeping energy prices low and the dollar strong. These forces have conspired to keep inflation here at home quite low. Federal Open Market Committee members’ median projection of inflation for 2015 is just 0.4%, well below it’s 2% target, which it has failed to reach for close to a decade.

????Meanwhile, the Fed’s projections for what constitutes maximum employment continue to fall. In September 2014, the Fed saw unemployment in the long run going no lower than 5.2%. Well, now it’s at 5.1%, and with long-term unemployment and involuntary part-time employment so high, there’s reason to believe that the official rate has plenty of room to fall. The median FOMC member now sees the long-term rate at 4.9%.

????Even though the Fed continues to miss its inflation targets and then revises down its estimates of full employment and economic growth, if you look at individual members projections, it would appear they believe that rates will still rise before the end of the year.

????But why exactly is the Fed holding onto this idea? AsThe Wall Street Journal pointed out in August, the theory that lower unemployment will always lead to higher inflation is tenuous at best. The following chart shows the relationship between falling unemployment and inflation:

????另外，其他陷入麻煩的經(jīng)濟體尚未有脫困的跡象。到目前為止，它們對美國經(jīng)濟的影響表現(xiàn)為進口價格下降和美元升值。這也許就是幾個月來美國市場通脹預期持續(xù)下降的原因之一。

????Second, the trouble abroad, which has so far filtered to the U.S. economy in the form of lower import prices and a stronger dollar, doesn’t show signs of abating. That may be one reason why market-based inflation expectations have been falling for months now:

????市場認為通脹率上升的局面不會很快出現(xiàn)，而且今年年底前利率也不會上揚，這和公開市場委員會成員的普遍觀點不同。正如《金融時報》指出的那樣，美聯(lián)儲的預測數(shù)字公布后的短短幾分鐘之內，“交易員們就根據(jù)彭博對聯(lián)邦基金期貨的推算分析認為，美聯(lián)儲在今年12月以前采取行動的可能性約為49%。”

????美國前財長拉里·薩默斯上周早些時候曾指出，市場不相信美聯(lián)儲會提高利率增加了后者加息的難度。因為在這種情況下，美聯(lián)儲上調利率引發(fā)的金融市場震蕩將有損于經(jīng)濟。美聯(lián)儲再次發(fā)現(xiàn)，市場參與者不相信他們的話，而這正是目前美聯(lián)儲需要解決的溝通問題。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對：詹妮

????The market doesn’t see inflation rising anytime soon, and it doesn’t agree with the median FOMC member that interest rates will go up by the end of 2015. As the the Financial Times points out, just minutes after the Fed projections were released, “Traders bet there is roughly a 49 per cent chance that the Fed moves by December, according to calculations on federal funds futures by Bloomberg.”

????As Larry Summers argued earlier this week, the fact that markets don’t believe you’re going to raise rates makes it more difficult to raise rates because it sets up a situation where a move by the Fed can create economy-damaging volatility in the financial markets. The Fed has once again found itself in a position where market participants don’t believe what it is saying, and that’s a communication problem it needs to fix now.