????今年夏末幾大新興市場都遭遇了股市暴跌。8月份，MSCI新興市場基準指數重挫9%，這讓人們不光擔心股票上的損失，更擔心資本外流傷及各個新興經濟體的根本。

????今年夏初，《金融時報》和《華爾街日報》雙雙發表文章，著重描述了這種顧慮，原因是今年第一季度15個最大新興經濟體的資本外流規模超過了2009年同期，也就是全球金融危機期間的水平。熱錢蜂擁而去會讓一個國家的金融體系變得不穩定，還會給該國貨幣帶來沉重打擊，有時甚至會引發全面危機（想一想1998年的俄羅斯）。

????目前的情況真是這樣嗎？

????今年確實有大量資金流出新興市場。資產管理公司NN Investment Partners的數據顯示，今年上半年新興市場的資本外流規模超過4000億美元。不過，其中的要點在于，很大一部分資金外流都發生在一個國家，那就是中國。

????研究機構Emerging Advisors Group追蹤著39個新興市場的數據。它發現，除中國外，其他新興市場的資本外流很少，和2008-09年出現金融危機，2013年美聯儲壓縮資產購買規模，2014年底油價暴跌以及美元走強時的外流水平根本無法相提并論。

????該機構總裁喬納森?安德森指出，8月份股市重挫，世界各地的投資者從新興市場抽離了數十億美元資金，但即便如此，新興市場也沒有發生危機的跡象。安德森是最受推崇的新興市場觀察人士之一，曾在瑞銀擔任全球新興市場經濟學家。他在最近接受采訪時說：“觀察一下當地儲戶和境內居民的行為就會發現，并沒有發現達到危機級別的大批資金外逃。但中國的資本外流是個問題。”

????8月中旬，中國央行下調人民幣兌美元匯率引起外界關注。評論人士擔心，人民幣貶值會造成中國國內資金外逃。其中一些人預計，8月份中國的外匯儲備將減少2000億美元，按這樣的速度計算，中國的外儲將在短短一年多時間里流失殆盡。

????本周一，實際數據表明唱衰者過于危言聳聽。中國央行公布，8月份中國外儲減少了900億美元，雖遠高于7月份的750億美元，但鑒于中國仍有3.6萬億美元外儲，這樣的流失規模并無大礙。

????事實表明，熱錢并未逃離中國，富裕的中國精英階層也沒有攜款逃往澳大利亞。據安德森介紹，反而是許多國內的人在遠離人民幣。最近兩年美元快速升值，人民幣匯率近期則下調并且不斷滑落，這意味著中國的生意人和精英人士會選擇更多地持有美元。中國外儲減少的原因是央行將其用于支撐人民幣匯率，但中國商業銀行海外資產的增長產生了相反效果，而且這些海外資產并未計入中國的外匯儲備。安德森說：“現在的局面真的不是資金逃離中國，而是人們在權衡之后開始遠離人民幣。”

????對于中國央行宣布下調人民幣匯率，獨立經濟研究機構凱投宏觀（Capital Economics）的關注中國市場的經濟學家朱利安?埃文斯-普里查德的看法如下：

????人民幣/美元匯率將出現歷史最大單月跌幅，但并沒有出現許多人說的資本大逃亡……我要重申的是，資本外流并非資本外逃。很大一部分資本外流只是源于中國的公司和銀行持有了更多的外幣存款，或者其境內外外幣債務的下降。

????如果相關數據不再惡化，大家就不要相信中國或其他新興市場出現了恐慌。那里的資本并未奪門而出。

????安德森總結說：“基本情況就是，人們在觀察全球匯率市場的基本面，在操作中做了一點方向調整”，也就是說，人們拋售人民幣是為買進升值的美元。安德森指出：“這就是為什么我要強調，目前的局勢可能只是一種周期性現象，而非今后五年的重大結構性問題。”（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對：詹妮

????The end-of-summer meltdown in emerging markets, when the MSCI stock benchmark collapsed by 9% in August, created a bigger fear than just stock losses—chiefly that emerging countries are experiencing crippling capital outflows.

????Earlier this summer a pair of articles in the Financial Times and Wall Street Journal highlighted the fears after the fifteen largest emerging economies recorded larger capital outflows in the first quarter this year than they had during the same period of the financial crisis in 2009. Hot money rushing out of a country destabilizes a country’s financial system and plays havoc on its currency— sometimes leading to full-blown crises. (See Russia 1998.)

????Is that what’s really happening?

????Emerging markets have in fact experienced massive outflows this year—more than $400 billion in the first half of 2015, according to NN Investment Partners. However, and this is the key point in the data, much of that has originated from a single source: China.

????Another researcher, Emerging Advisors Group, looked at 39 emerging markets it follows, minus China, and found capital outflows to be minimal—certainly nothing compared to crisis times of 2008-09, the Fed tapering in 2013, or the collapse of oil and the rise of the U.S. dollar in late 2014.

????Even after the August stock collapse, when global investors yanked billions out of the countries, a crisis didn’t appear in store for emerging countries, says Emerging Advisors president Jonathan Anderson, one of the most respected EM watchers and formerly global emerging markets economist at UBS. “If you look at the behavior of local depositors, residents on shore, what we don’t see is massive crisis level flight,” he said in a recent interview. “But there is a China outflows problem.”

????Attention shifted to China in mid-August after the country’s central bank devalued the yuan’s value to the dollar, which worried pundits that Chinese money would flee the country as the currency fell. Some commenters were predicting China’s foreign exchange reserves to fall by $200 billion in the month—a rate that would deplete its foreign reserves in just over a year.

????On Monday, evidence arrived that showed thedoomsayers were far too alarmist. China’s central bank said in August, reserves fell by $90 billion, which while up substantially from $75 billion in July, was not crippling, considering that China still has $3.6 trillion worth.

????It turns out hot money isn’t escaping China, nor are rich officials and elite fleeing with cash for Australia. Instead, according to Emerging Advisors’ Anderson, many inside the country are fleeing China’s currency. The U.S. dollar’s rapid rise over the past two years, compared to the recently devalued and falling renminbi (RMB), means Chinese businesses and elite are opting to hold more dollars. China’s central bank foreign reserves are declining because it is spending dollars to prop up the renminbi, but there’s an offsetting increase of foreign assets in China’s commercial banks, which aren’t counted in the foreign reserves figure. “It’s not really a story about money rushing out of China—it’s a story about getting out of the renminbi at the margin,” he says.

????Here’s Capital Economics’ Julian Evans-Pritchard on China’s central bank’s announcement:

????This would be the largest one-month fall in dollar terms on record but not the rout many were talking about. … It’s also worth reiterating that capital outflows are not the same as capital flight. Much of the “outflows” simply represent increased holdings of foreign currency deposits by Chinese firms and banks, or reductions in their foreign currency debts both at home and abroad.

????If the numbers don’t worsen, don’t fall for the panic in China or other emerging markets. Capital isn’t rushing out the door.

????Again, Anderson: “Basically, it’s people looking at global currency fundamentals and taking a bit the other direction,” he says, meaning that people are trading in some yuan for a rising U.S dollar. “Which is why, I stress, this is likely to be cyclical phenomenon rather a massive structural problem in the next five years.”