????歐盟再次面臨危機，每月數(shù)以萬計難民抵境，其中很大一部分來自陷入內(nèi)戰(zhàn)的敘利亞。

????歐盟統(tǒng)計局的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，2014年進入歐盟28國尋求庇護的難民人數(shù)達62.6萬人，創(chuàng)歷史新高，而且沒有跡象顯示其增長勢頭將很快放緩。2012年中東和北非地區(qū)的沖突激化，造成數(shù)十萬人無家可歸，從那時起涌入歐洲的難民數(shù)量開始快速上升。

????報紙和電視上充斥著許多難民喪生，或被歐洲這個全球最富裕大洲拒之門外的圖文報道。對歐洲領(lǐng)導人來說，局勢已經(jīng)到達拐點。美國記者史蒂芬?厄蘭格上周三（9月3日）在《紐約時報》上發(fā)表文章指出，當前的難民危機和席卷歐洲的債務危機有相似之處。

????厄蘭格認為，從某種意義上講，緊張的局勢使希臘危機和移民危機從兩個方面反映出了同一問題。希臘人依靠歐元大舉借貸生活，這些借款由德國的最優(yōu)質(zhì)信貸提供支持。而當希臘遭遇財政問題時，卻拒絕按德國的要求大幅緊縮開支。

????同樣的，東歐邊遠地區(qū)的民眾一直享受著自由進入德國市場的福利。但當那些非歐洲難民穿越他們的土地，前往更富裕的歐洲核心地區(qū)尋求庇護或工作時，這些東歐國家也未能按德國的要求采取相應措施。

????以上分析不僅對歐債危機的經(jīng)濟原理進行了錯誤解讀，也過于相信歐洲有能力解決境外戰(zhàn)爭帶來的危機。首先，歐債危機的情況要比“希臘在德國信貸支持下無節(jié)制借款”更為復雜。和生產(chǎn)率較低的經(jīng)濟體建立貨幣聯(lián)盟后，歐元對德國來說一直處于低估狀態(tài)，多年來德國經(jīng)濟一直得益于此。將產(chǎn)品低價出口到歐盟其他地區(qū)讓德國受益匪淺。

????同時，正如牛津大學教授、國際移民研究所聯(lián)合主任海因?德?哈斯指出的那樣，涌向某個國家的移民多少與輸入國的經(jīng)濟健康狀況以及移民輸出地的情況直接相關(guān)。正是由于這個原因，歐盟上一次移民“危機”才會出現(xiàn)在1992年，也就是波黑戰(zhàn)爭進入白熱化之時。只要輸入國的情況遠好于輸出國，任何阻止移民的措施都只會加快移民速度，并讓正在逃離的民眾陷于危險之中。德?哈斯寫道：“移民限制雖然經(jīng)常可以減少移民數(shù)量，但作用往往相當小。同時，這些限制措施通常有四種潛在副作用（或者稱之為替代作用），這些副作用會進一步削弱這些措施的效果，甚至讓它們適得其反?！?/p>

????這四種副作用是：

?????移民找到其他非法移民渠道?！氨热?，歐洲國家曾在20世紀70年代設(shè)法限制摩洛哥和土耳其工人移民，但后者繼續(xù)以家庭移民和非常規(guī)移民的形式出現(xiàn)。”

?????“現(xiàn)在就走，否則再也無法移民”，這種想法會讓移民爭相逃離，以免受限于新政策。”

?????移民另尋出路。“舉例來說，如果某個歐洲國家收緊庇護政策，尋求庇護的人就可能流向鄰國。我們還發(fā)現(xiàn)，地中海的移民管控并未阻止移民潮，只是迫使移民和走私者采用其他路線?！?/p>

?????“第四種副作用可能最嚴重，那就是移民限制不光減少了入境移民數(shù)量，還減少了返回輸出國的移民數(shù)量。換句話說，這樣的措施減少了人口流動，使移民成為永久居民。具有諷刺意味的是，這和相關(guān)政策要達到的目的恰好相反?！?/p>

????因此，雖然德國動用了大量資源來安置難民，德國總理安吉拉?默克爾還動用政治資本敦促歐盟國家拿出更多資源來幫助難民，這些舉措雖然值得贊賞，但實際上最吸引難民的還是德國經(jīng)濟。而且，正是因為德國拒絕對存在問題的歐洲貨幣聯(lián)盟進行調(diào)整，才削弱了意大利和希臘等國擺脫經(jīng)濟危機的能力。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對：詹妮

????The European union is suffering from yet another crisis: the tens of thousands of migrants arriving at its shores each month, a large portion of whom are fleeing the civil war in Syria.

????According to Eurostat, the number of asylum seekers in the European Union’s 28 member states reached a record 626,000 in 2014, with no sign that the flow will abate any time soon. These numbers have been quickly rising since 2012, when conflicts in the Middle East and North Africa came to a boil and displaced hundreds of thousands of refugees.

????With newspapers and television dominated by pictures and reports of hundreds of migrants who have either died or been turned away by the richest continent in the world, the situation has reached a breaking point for Europe’s leaders. In a piece in Wednesday’s New York Times, Steven Erlanger argued that the migrant crisis bares resemblance to the debt crisis that continues to plague that EU:

????That tension has, in some sense, made both the Greek and migrant crises two sides of the same problem. The Greeks lived large borrowing in euros, which Germany backed with its sterling credit, and then challenged Germany’s demands for harsh austerity when it ran into financial problems.

????Similarly, people in the eastern reaches of Europe have enjoyed unfettered access to the big German market. But they have balked at Germany’s evolving demands for how to grapple with non-European migrants crisscrossing their lands on their way to seek asylum or work in Europe’s wealthier core.

????This analysis gets both the economics of the European debt crisis wrong and places too much faith in Europe’s ability to solve a crisis that is the result of wars outside its borders. First, the European debt crisis is a bit more complicated than Greeks going on a borrowing binge backed by German credit. The German economy has benefited for years from its use of a currency that is undervalued because its alliance with less productive economies. Germany has benefitted immensely from its ability to export its products cheaply to the rest of the EU.

????Meanwhile, as Hein de Haas, co-director of the International Migration Institute and professor at the University of Oxford, has pointed out that the level of immigration to a given country is directly related to the economic health of the destination and the conditions within the point of departure. That’s why the previous migrant “crisis” in the EU happened in 1992, at the height of the Balkan Wars. As long as the destination country offers far better conditions than what’s available in migrants’ home countries, any efforts to stem the flow will only speed up migration and endanger those who are fleeing. de Haas writes, “while immigration restrictions often reduce immigration, these effects tend to be rather small. In addition, restrictions often have four potential side-effects (‘substitution effects’) which further undermine their effectiveness or can even make them counter-productive.”

????Those four side-effects are:

????? Migrants find other illegal channels through which to migrate. “For instance, when European countries tried to curb immigration from Moroccan and Turkish workers from the 1970s, people continued to migrate as family and irregular migrants.”

????? “Now or never migration,” where migrants rush to avoid new restrictions.

????? Migrants simply use another geographic route. “For instance, if one European country toughens its asylum policies, this may divert asylum seekers to neighbouring countries. We also see this with migration controls in the Mediterranean Sea, which do not stop migration but rather compel migrants and smugglers to use other geographical routes.”

????? “The fourth and probably strongest side effect of immigration restrictions is that they not only reduce immigration but that they also reduce return migration. In other words: they reduce circulation and push migrants into permanent settlement. Ironically, this is exactly the opposite of what the policies aim to achieve.”

????So while it’s laudable that Germans have spent extensive resources on refugee resettlement, and that German chancellor Angela Merkel is spending political capital on the effort to get EU countries to devote more resources to help these refugees, it’s actually the German economy most of all which is attracting them. And it’s German resistance to fixing Europe’s broken currency union that is hampering the abilities of countries like Italy and Greece to recover from the economic depression they are suffering from.