????美聯儲一直在向投資者暗示，今年將提高短期利率。亞特蘭大聯儲行長丹尼斯?洛克哈特顯然是較公開支持加息的聯儲成員之一。本月早些時候，洛克哈特接受《華爾街日報》采訪時表示，他預計利率將在9月份上調。本周一（8月27日），他在加州大學伯克利分校發表講話時重申，就算9月份不加息，美聯儲也應該在年內提高短期利率。

????眼下，主流經濟學家對利率的看法和洛克哈特及其同事的公開表態一致。全美企業經濟學家協會最近開展的一項調查也顯示，77%的受訪經濟學家認為美聯儲最終會在年底前加息。

????不過，盡管外界高度一致地認為今年利率將上升，Hedgeye風險管理公司仍堅持長期以來的觀點，那就是美國利率保持在較低水平而且接近于零的時間將長于大多數人的預期。從分析角度堅持這一論點的關鍵原因有五個，具體如下：

????股市震蕩

????首先就是證券市場的波動性。兩周來股市起伏不定，這顯然可以成為美聯儲在9月中旬的會議上暫緩加息的借口。實際情況是，和8月初的年內低點相比，衡量美國股市波動幅度的VIX指數幾乎上漲了65%。標普500指數則在上周下跌近10%。目前美國股市顯然很不平靜。由于過早加息而進一步刺激投資者，甚至可能讓傷害到消費者信心，應該非美聯儲所愿。

????The U.S. Federal Reserve has consistently indicated to investors their intentions to raise short-term interest rates this year. One of the more outspoken proponents of raising rates has clearly been Atlanta Fed PresidentDennis Lockhart. In a Wall Street Journal interview earlier this month, Lockhart indicated that he expected rates to increase in September. Then, just this past Monday in a speech in Berkeley, California, he once again reiterated the call for short-term rates to increase this year, even if not in September.

????Right now, the consensus view of mainstream economists echoes the public statements of Lockhart and his Fed colleagues on rates. In fact, according to a recent survey from the National Association of Business Economics, 77% of economists surveyed indicated they believed the Fed would ultimately raise rates before the end of the year.

????So, notwithstanding the strong consensus view that interest rates will increase this year, our firm is sticking with our long-held view that rates will remain both lower and near zero for longer than most people believe. From our analytical perch, there are five key reasons we believe this:

????Stock market drama

????On the first point of equity volatility, the tumultuous last two weeks in the markets offers the Fed clear cover to defer a rate hike at their next meeting in mid-September. The reality is that equity market volatility, as measured by the VIX, is up almost 65% off its year-to-date lows of early August and the S&P500 is down close to 10% over the last week. The U.S. equity markets are clearly rattled right now. The Fed won’t want to rattle investors even more, and potentially consumer confidence further, by prematurely raising rates.

????全球經濟全面放緩

????我們曾反復指出，2015年全球經濟增速可能放慢，這不同于市場的普遍觀點。今年初以來，世界經濟走勢和我們的預期吻合。亞洲和歐洲經濟都比此前預計的表現更弱，加拿大經濟則處于衰退邊緣。盡管美國經濟相對而言確實顯得較為強勁，但年初至今的經濟增長預期一直穩步下降。實際上，兩黨連立的國會預算辦公室已于本周二將2015年美國GDP增長預期從2.9%下調至2.0%。

????中國經濟局勢非常不明朗

????中國央行本周二降息，這可能再次表明中國經濟遠未觸底。同時，近幾個月公布的眾多數據都表明中國經濟正在放緩。不久之前出的中國8月份采購經理人指數為47.1，創六年半以來新低。當然，美聯儲不會根據中國的經濟形勢來制定貨幣政策，但他們一定會把中國經濟前景納入考量范圍，畢竟中國約占全球GDP的15%，而且為全球經濟增長做出了近一半的貢獻。

????強勢美元

????去年美元兌其他主要貨幣全面升值，美元指數在這一年里累積上升了近14%。美元走強是其他主要經濟體放松貨幣政策而美聯儲持鷹派立場的副作用之一。美聯儲主席珍妮特?耶倫已公開表示，強勢美元可能影響美國出口。因此，就利率做出決策時，美聯儲一定會認真考慮這樣一個問題，那就是美國將成為唯一提高利率的主要經濟體，而這對美元匯率影響重大。

????通脹率過低

????最后，美國的通脹率遠低于美聯儲目前2%的目標（這一點和美聯儲實際行動的關系可能最為密切）。提醒一下，美聯儲的兩項任務是盡量促進就業以及保持物價穩定。在第一點上，目前可能已接近充分就業水平。但在第二點上，或者說實際通脹水平上，美聯儲現在面臨的情形是：價格數據表明美國經濟正處于通貨緊縮邊緣，并且遠低于2.0%的長期消費者價格（CPI）目標。那么問題來了，為什么要現在加息呢？

????年初的聯邦基金利率期貨走勢表明，當時市場普遍認為美聯儲將在6月份之前上調利率。而現在，只有少數人相信美聯儲會在9月中旬加息。正如本文開頭所述，市場參與者仍一致預計美國加息將在年內發生。

????但鑒于以上原因，我們公司仍持相反觀點。（財富中文網）

????本文作者達里爾?瓊斯是投資研究機構Hedgeye風險管理公司研究總監。

????（注：本文僅代表作者觀點）

????譯者：Charlie

????審校：詹妮

????Slow growth across the globe

????Here at Hedgeye, we’ve been a non-consensus, broken record on the fact that global growth was likely to slow in 2015. So far, this is precisely how the year has played out. Asia is weaker than expected, Europe is weaker than expected, and Canada is verging on recession. While the U.S. economy does seem stronger on a relative basis, even here, growth expectations have been steadily ratcheted down throughout the year. In fact, on Tuesday, the bi-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) took down its 2015 GDP growth expectation from 2.9% to 2.0%.

????China is such a wildcard

????China’s interest rate cut on Tuesday is likely another sign that the Chinese economy has far from bottomed. Additionally, the high-frequency economic data out of China has been consistently slowing over the past few months. More recently, the preliminary reading for the Chinese purchasing managers index (PMI) came in at 47.1 in August, which was a six-and-a-half year low. Certainly, the Fed doesn’t manage U.S. interest rate policy to what is happening in China, but they will certainly take into consideration the outlook for a country that contributes about 15% of global GDP and close to 50% of global growth.

????The mighty U.S. dollar

????The U.S. dollar is up against every major global currency over the last year. In aggregate, the U.S. dollar index is up almost 14% over the last year. Dollar strength is one of the unintended consequences of other major economies easing monetary policy, and the Fed taking a hawkish stance. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen has already publicly stated that the strong dollar is likely holding down U.S. exports. So, in any rate decision, the fact that the U.S. will be the only major economy with rates going higher will certainly be given considerable consideration as it relates to its impact on the currency.

????Inflation is super low

????Finally (and likely the most relevant to actual Fed actions), is the fact that U.S. inflation is well under the current 2.0% target. As a refresher, the Fed’s dual mandate is to maximize employment and to maintain stable prices. On the first point of employment, arguably, we are close to maximum employment. On the second point of stable prices, or in effect inflation, the Fed currently is facing an economy that is reporting price data that is borderline deflationary and certainly well below the long run Consumer Price Index target of 2.0%. Which begs the question: why raise interest rates now?

????As highlighted in the chart of Fed Fund futures at the start of the year, when the year started the overwhelming consensus was that the Fed would raise rates by June. At this point, only a minority believe that Fed will raise rates in mid-September. As noted at the outset, the consensus does still believe a rate hike will occur this year.

????For the reasons outlined above, our firm continues to take the other side of that view.

????Daryl Jones is director of research at Hedgeye Risk Management. Follow him on Twitter @HedgeyeDJ.