《財(cái)富》美國500強(qiáng)排名顯示的是美國哪些企業(yè)的規(guī)模最大，但沒有透露其中哪些公司最具投資潛力。當(dāng)然，遵循“投資需謹(jǐn)慎”這一原則總是有益的。一些上榜公司的股票跌得很慘，今年1月初至今的跌幅甚至達(dá)到68%。

筆者與美國500強(qiáng)數(shù)據(jù)專家斯科特·迪卡洛一道，試圖找到今年的榜單上有哪些最值得投資的股票。我們首先篩選了那些市盈率估值低于標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的股票（目前，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的市盈率為2015年預(yù)期收益的17.9倍），但是我們并未止步于此。畢竟，在進(jìn)入第7年高歌猛進(jìn)的牛市之后，有些市盈率最低的股票之所以便宜，往往也是有原因的，比如剛剛扭虧為盈，陷入麻煩的能源公司，在競爭中落后，或是壓根不值錢。

相反，我們尋找的是那些已經(jīng)展現(xiàn)出一些勢頭，并且在過去5年跑贏了標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的公司（非常了不起的成就，因?yàn)檫^去5年里，標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的回報(bào)率115.4%，包括分紅）。另外，今年標(biāo)普500指數(shù)公司的預(yù)期收益增長率幾乎為零，惹得股民一片哀嘆。有鑒于此，相較于華爾街對該指數(shù)2015年平均每股盈利增長率的預(yù)期共識，我們的標(biāo)準(zhǔn)要略高一些。我們選擇的是那些今年的盈利增長率有望超過5%，并且明年將繼續(xù)保持積極增長的企業(yè)。

由于預(yù)期熊市可能到來，很多投資者首先追求的是安全和穩(wěn)定——當(dāng)然，股民都是盼著收益的，雖然它在這個(gè)低利率時(shí)代已經(jīng)算是罕見了。我們選擇的這9支股票的股息率都在2%以上（即標(biāo)普500指數(shù)的平均水平）。為了繼續(xù)縮小選擇范圍，我們只保留了那些在去年提高了分紅的公司，因?yàn)榫烷L期而言，能提高分紅的公司都展示出了跑贏大盤的驚人能力。

最后，我們剔除了那些今年的銷售額預(yù)計(jì)將下降的公司——光這一項(xiàng)就排除了信安金融集團(tuán)、化學(xué)品企業(yè)亨斯邁公司、美國國際紙業(yè)公司、計(jì)算機(jī)硬驅(qū)制造商西部電子公司、工業(yè)技術(shù)生產(chǎn)商派克漢尼汾公司、鐵路運(yùn)營商CSX等等。最后，我們還劃掉了包裝材料生產(chǎn)商Rock-Tenn公司，因?yàn)樵摴灸壳罢幱谂c米德維實(shí)偉克公司合并的過程中，等交易徹底結(jié)束后，該公司的股票也將不再以當(dāng)前形式存在。

最后剩下的就只有9只股票了，我們依據(jù)投資潛力對其進(jìn)行了排名：

【編者注：文中的業(yè)績和估值采用了截至今年7月的最新數(shù)據(jù)，所以可能與6月15日《財(cái)富》雜志刊登的美國500強(qiáng)榜單數(shù)據(jù)有出入。】

The Fortune 500 rankings tell you a lot about the biggest American companies, but nothing about which of them have the most potential as investments. And certainly it pays to be choosy: the biggest- loser stocks on this year’s list are down as much as 68% just since the beginning of January.

Working with our Fortune 500 data guru, Scott DeCarlo, we set out to find the best stock picks among the companies in this year’s rankings. We started by screening for stocks that had a lower price-to-earnings valuation than the S&P 500, which trades at a 17.9 multiple of estimated 2015 earnings. But we didn’t stop there. After all, in the seventh year of a charging bull market, the stocks with the lowest P/E ratios are often cheap for a reason—turnaround stories, distressed energy companies, left-behinds or all-around dogs.

Instead, we looked for companies that already had some momentum, those that had outperformed the S&P 500 over the last five years (quite a feat, considering the index returned 115.4%, including dividends, in that time). And because investors are lamenting the virtually nonexistent earnings growth predicted for the S&P 500 this year, we set the bar higher than the Wall Street consensus for the index’s average 2015 EPS growth: We screened for companies that are expected to grow earnings by more than 5% this year, and to post positive growth again in 2016.

Because many investors are looking for safety and stability in anticipation of a possible market downturn—not to mention income, that rare commodity in this low-interest rate era—we screened for stocks with a dividend yield of at least 2%, the S&P 500 average. To narrow it down even further, we kept only companies that had also increased their dividend at least somewhat in the last year, since dividend growers have demonstrated an uncanny ability to beat the market over the long-term.

Finally, we eliminated companies whose sales are expected to decline this year—which knocked out companies including Principal Financial Group PFG 1.08% , chemical producer Huntsman HUN -0.54% , International Paper IP -0.23% , computer hard-drive manufacturer Western Digital WDC -3.73% , industrial tech maker Parker-Hannifin PH 0.56% , and the railroad operator CSX CSX 0.52% . Last but not least, we crossed off cardboard packaging producer Rock-Tenn RKT -1.17% because it’s merging with MeadWestvaco Corp. MWV -0.59% , and the stock will cease to exist in its current form after the deal closes.

That left us with just 9 stocks, which we’ve ranked here in order of investment potential:

[Editor’s note: Performance and valuation figures were updated just before publication, and therefore will not be consistent with the figures in the Fortune 500 list that ran in the June 15 issue of Fortune magazine.]

1. KKR

美國500強(qiáng)排名：356

5年總回報(bào)率（至2015年6月22日）：231%

預(yù)計(jì)今年每股盈利增長率：119.7%

股息率：8.3%

2015年預(yù)期市盈率：9.8倍

從表面上看，KKR簡直是一支夢幻股：一家管理著990億美元資金的傳奇私募股權(quán)公司，其市場估值幾乎只有實(shí)際的一半——而且它的股息率竟然高達(dá)8.3%。但不管怎樣，投資者還是應(yīng)該保有一定警惕：像私募業(yè)的其他公司一樣，KKR一般采取“派利”的形式，每個(gè)季度的浮動都很大。所以盡管KKR公司上市后，年度派利總額年年上升，但到目前為止，它今年的派利支出要略低于去年同期。KKR公司的收入同樣也是不均勻的，因?yàn)樗氖杖肴Q于它所投資的項(xiàng)目價(jià)值，以及從中獲得的報(bào)酬。

不過對于能夠接受這種波動性的投資者來說，KKR有幾個(gè)值得入手的原因。這也是為什么有超過83%的華爾街分析師將該股評為“買入”級。首先，晨星公司指出，最近油價(jià)大跌導(dǎo)致該公司的能源投資十分不景氣，致使KKR的股價(jià)最近有所回落，KKR目前被低估了23%以上。其次，咨詢公司普遍預(yù)測，未來幾年將有更多資金流入私募領(lǐng)域和其它替代資產(chǎn)經(jīng)理手中，KKR公司也將從中獲益。另外，KKR不久后或許將獲得一筆等待已久的收益：First Data公司是KKR最大的投資之一，自KKR將其私有化后，這家公司一直陷于困境，但它在今年２月終于扭虧為盈。有些心急的投資者希望First Data最好能在今年年底就重新掛牌上市。

1. KKR

FORTUNE 500 RANK: 356

5-YEAR TOTAL RETURN (THROUGH 6/22/2015): 231%

ESTIMATED EPS GROWTH THIS YEAR: 119.7 %

DIVIDEND YIELD: 8.3%

ESTIMATED 2015 P/E RATIO: 9.8

On its face, KKR KKR 0.26% looks like a dream stock: A storied private equity firm managing nearly $99 billion that trades at a nearly 50% discount to the market—and pays a ridiculously high 8.3% dividend yield. Still, investors should be somewhat wary: As is typical in the private equity industry, KKR’s dividends—which are actually considered “distributions”—fluctuate dramatically quarter to quarter, depending on the firm’s investment exits. So while its total annual distributions have gone up each year since KKR went public, its payouts so far this year are slightly less than they were for the same period as last year. KKR’s revenues can be similarly uneven, as they depend on the underlying value of its investments and the fees it can generate from them.

But for investors who can handle that sort of volatility, there are several reasons to like KKR—and more than 83% of Wall Street analysts polled by Bloomberg rate the stock a “buy.” For one, the stock has pulled back recently as the slide in oil prices left several of the firm’s energy investments underwater, and now KKR is more than 23% undervalued, according to Morningstar. Plus, it should benefit as more money flows to private equity firms and other alternative asset managers, a trend consultants are predicting for the next few years. In the nearer future, KKR may also be in for a long-awaited payday: One of its largest investments, First Data, which has been struggling since KKR took it private in 2007, returned to profitability in February, stoking investors’ hopes that it could go public again as soon as later this year.