????長期以來，沃倫·巴菲特一直看好中國和中國市場。但最近中國股市暴跌，這種情況下他還是那么樂觀嗎？

????近來中國股市就像坐了過山車。6月份到7月初，上證A股重挫25%，隨后反彈14%，本周前兩天又大幅滑落10%左右。

????但市場震蕩從來不會把巴菲特嚇退。這位億萬富翁投資人、伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司的首席執行官經常說，華爾街把波動等同于風險是錯的。如果打算長期持有某只股票，波段中有些起伏就沒關系。股價終將體現股票的真實價值，只要這個價值高于你的買入價就好。

????巴菲特真正關心的是，不要一開始就以過高價格買入。大約15年前，巴菲特向人們介紹了他眼中的最佳指標，用于判斷股市估值水平是過高還是過低。1999年，巴菲特首次在《財富》雜志上寫了一篇文章提到這項指標。他說，他喜歡把一國股市的總值和其經濟產出，或GDP進行比較。這個比值很像市盈率，但針對的是整體經濟，而不是某只股票。巴菲特稱，他喜歡在股市市值/經濟產出比率介于70-80%之間時買入股票；當這個數字超過133%時，股市估值就開始顯得偏高。

????Warren Buffett has long been bullish on China, and its market. But, given the nation’s recent stock market tumbles, would he still be now?

????Chinese stocks have been on a roller-coaster ride lately. Shares on China’s Shanghai exchange dropped roughly 10% on Monday and Tuesday. That comes after a 14% rebound since its 25% plunge in June and early July.

????But volatility has never scared away Buffett. The billionaire investor and CEO of conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A 2.07% often says that Wall Street incorrectly equates volatility with risk. If you plan on holding a stock for the long term, Buffett says, it doesn’t matter what it does along the way. The price of a stock will eventually reflect its true value, which is hopefully higher than what you paid to buy the shares.

????What Buffett is really concerned about is not overpaying in the first place. About a decade-and-a-half ago, Buffett divulged what he said was his favorite metric for determining whether the stock market was overvalued or undervalued. He wrote about it for the first time in an article in Fortune in 1999. (And here’s an update.) Buffett said he likes to compare the total value of the stock market to the output of the economy, or GDP. It’s like a price-to-earnings ratio but for the economy instead of just one stock. Buffett said he likes to buy when stocks are trading at 70%-to-80% of economic output. Anything over 133% begins to look expensive.

????那么，按巴菲特最喜歡的指標衡量，中國股市現狀如何呢？讓人意外的是，它表明中國股市情況良好，特別是跟美國股市相比。最近滑坡之后，中國股市的總市值（包括滬深兩市和有很多中國內地企業上市的香港市場）和中國GDP（包括香港）的比率是110%。

????許多評論人士都認為，中國股市在短短一年半時間里（即最近暴跌之前）上漲140%，已經形成了泡沫。但2014年初中國股市的估值水平實際上還非常低。2014年3月底，中國股市總市值只有GDP的69%（即上圖中中國股市總值/GDP曲線的最低點）。

????目前中國股市市值已經上升。但巴菲特指標顯示，估值水平也許還不太高。目前美國股市總值和GDP的比率是125%，也就是說，中國股市是個不錯的投資對象，至少和美國股市相比是這樣。

????當然，這里有一些附帶條件。首先，不能僅僅因為中國股市的估值水平比美國股市低，就認為中國的股票價格遭到低估。許多人認為美國股市估值偏高，原因是美國經濟增速一直處于中等水平。中國發展迅速，但經濟增長率呈下降態勢。為股市估值時要把這些因素都考慮在內。

????投資者重視的是穩定性。和巴菲特不同，大多數投資者都不喜歡市場波動。因此，美股市值往往高于美國的GDP。過去五年平均來看，美股市值/GDP比率接近110%。而中國只有90%多一點。如果再往前推，中國的數字可能還要更低。因此，和中國股市相比，美股的估值看起來總是很高。

????同時，這項指標表明，當前中國股市仍被大幅高估的說法有誤。該指標的走勢完全符合今年5月份巴菲特在股東大會上對中國的評價，當時A股的點位還較高。

????巴菲特在會上預測，中國股市還可延續2-3年牛市，原因是中國人“找到了釋放潛力的途徑”。此后不久，中國股市站上了歷史最高點。約一個月后，A股又開始急劇下挫。不過，這些對巴菲特而言可能都是浮云。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????校對：詹妮

????So, what does Buffett’s favorite market indicator say about Chinese stocks right now? It offers a surprisingly positive message, especially compared to what it is saying right now about the U.S. After China’s recent market drop, the total value of all Chinese stocks (I added up the value of shares on China’s two main exchanges, the Shanghai and the Shenzhen, as well as the Hong Kong’s Hang Seng market, where many mainland Chinese companies have long traded) to China’s GDP (plus Hong Kong’s) is 110%.

????Many commentators have suggested that China’s market 140% rise in just a year-and-a-half (before the recent correction) was a bubble. But back in early 2014, China’s stock market was actually very cheap. At the end of March 2014, China’s total market value was just 69% of GDP. (That’s the lowest point for China in the chart above.) That’s below the territory that Buffett, who is known as a value investor, would usually says it’s time to buy.

????China’s stock market value is higher now, but, the Buffett indicator suggests, perhaps not too high. The U.S. stock market trades at a value of 125% of America’s GDP. That means Chinese stocks are, at least relative to the U.S., a good buy.

????There are, of course, some caveats. First of all, just because China’s stock market is cheaper than the U.S. stock market doesn’t mean Chinese shares are undervalued. Many people think the U.S. stock market is overvalued because the nation’s economic growth has been middling. China is growing fast, but it’s slowing. All of that comes into play when you are valuing a stock market.

????Investors place a premium on reliability. Unlike Buffett, most investors actually don’t like volatility. So the U.S. stock market tends to trade above its GDP. Over the past five years, the U.S. stock market has traded at nearly 110% of GDP. China has traded at just over 90% of GDP. Go back even further, and it’s likely that China’s market has averaged much lower than that. So, compared to China’s market, America’s market always looks expensive.

????Still, the Buffett indicator suggests that the people saying China’s stock market is still way overvalued are wrong. And Buffett’s favorite indicator matches up nicely to what he said about China back in May at Berkshire’s annual shareholder meeting, when the market was higher.

????The investor predicted the Chinese stock market had another two to three years to run because the country’s population had “found a way to unlock their potential.” He made those comment right around when China’s stocks hit their all time high. They started to tumble about a month later. But none of this is likely to bother Buffett.