一張圖看懂:股市暴跌的問題可能比你想得更嚴重
????美國投資者終于切身體會到了中國股市跳水所帶來的影響。 ????中國股市將近一個月的暴跌讓大盤狂降了26%,期間,美國投資者似乎一直在扮演旁觀者的角色??傮w而言,美國股市近期持續上揚,而且在各類市場消息中,美國、希臘甚至是波多黎各都要比中國更為搶眼。 ????然而問題在于,中國股市跳水會給全球市場帶來多大的經濟影響?中國股市的波動性很大。之前一飛沖天,現在一瀉千里。中國的經濟增速正在放緩,但速度不快,很有可能會“軟著陸”,除非股市崩盤打破這一趨勢。 ????中國股市的大多數投資者都是普通老百姓,但大多數中國人并沒有買股票。因此,我們很難得知股市的暴跌會帶來多大的影響。如今,中國似乎既有意愿,也有能力幫助其銀行擺脫困境。 ????但是在過去一周,有跡象表明,中國股市的下跌并非只是涉及股市本身,它有可能會觸動整個中國經濟。突然之間,在美國上市的中概股的表現開始落后于上交所的中國股。自7月初以來,由阿里巴巴等在美上市的中國大公司組成的iShares高市值交易所交易基金指數(iShares Large-Cap ETF)下跌了10%。阿里巴巴股價最近下探至IPO以來的新低。指數中表現最差的當屬為中國各省提供在線彩票服務的500.com。自6月中旬以來,該公司股價下跌了40%。 ????這波下跌所釋放的信號在于:中國股市的現狀并非僅是股價下跌這么簡單,它可能意味著中國的經濟要比人們想象的差。至少,這一現象說明了中國股市的問題正蔓延至其他市場。不過,上述兩點都不是什么好事,而且美國投資者也應對此有所警覺。(財富中文網) ????譯者:馮豐 ????校對:詹妮 |
????U.S. investors are finally getting a front row seat to China’s market meltdown. ????Much of the near month-long collapse of the Chinese stock market, which has sent prices plunging 26%, has seemed like a sideshow to U.S. investors. Stocks in the U.S. in general have mostly continued to go up. And the U.S., Greece, and even Puerto Rico have played a larger role in market news. ????The question is, how big of an economic story is China’s stock market stumble? China’s market is volatile. It went up too much and now it is falling fast. The nation’s economy is slowing, but slowly, and likely into a soft-landing, unless the Chinese stock market crash changes that dynamic. ????The vast majority of Chinese stocks are held by average Chinese investors. But the vast majority of Chinese don’t own stocks. So it’s hard to know how much impact the drop will have. And China seems willing, and able, to bail out its banks for now. ????But in the past week, there have been signs that what’s going on in the Chinese markets is not just about the markets, but potentially about China’s economy overall. U.S.-listed Chinese stocks are all of sudden doing worse than Chinese stocks listed on the local Shanghai exchange. Since the beginning of July, the iShares Large-Cap ETF, which is made up of large U.S.-listed Chinese companies including Alibaba BABA -0.76% and others, is down about 10%. Alibaba recently fell to its lowest price since its IPO. The worst performer in the index is 500.com WBAI -16.64% , which offers online lottery services to Chinese provinces. That company’s stock is down 40% since mid-June. ????The drop in U.S.-listed Chinese stocks signals that what is going on in mainland China’s markets is more than just about stock prices. It could signal that the Chinese economy is in worse shape than we think. At the very least, it suggests that the troubles in China’s local stock market are spreading. Either one is not good. And something that U.S. investors should keep an eye on. |