親身體驗告訴我希臘也許永遠無法復蘇
????從2010年,也就是希臘債務危機爆發后的那一年起,我和家人每年都會到希臘去。 ????我們到希臘半是工作半是度假。作為布魯金斯學會前董事總經理,我協助啟動并指導了該學會的希臘危機研究項目,其中為希臘經濟如何恢復競爭力提出了一些建議。 ????我是美籍希臘人,在家里說希臘語,但小時候幾乎沒有到過希臘。我想讓自己的孩子們接觸到希臘的歷史和文化,并感受到希臘人的熱情。 ????過去五年來,我們發現希臘人的生活受到了越來越大的影響,比如雅典的店鋪關門歇業,許多人失去工作,政府削減養老金,企業無法獲得資金,中東和北非移民帶來的問題加劇等。 ????我們還看到了街頭的游行示威和希臘議員們的爭執。兩年前,時任希臘財政部長的雅尼斯?斯托爾納拉斯帶我看了他辦公室窗戶上的彈孔。現在,斯托爾納拉斯是希臘央行行長,他與總理阿萊克斯?齊普拉斯意見向左也是公開的事實。 ????但我們也看到希臘取得了一些重大成功,比如現代化的雅典新衛城博物館。我的一位美國旅游達人朋友把這座熠熠生輝的建筑稱為他參觀過的最好的博物館。它是希臘公共設施中不可多得的明星建筑。 ????有一次,我和妻子幫助安排了100名朋友到希臘伯羅奔尼撒半島西部的科斯塔納瓦里諾度假區旅游。這個度假區的設計和施工都非常精細。伯羅奔尼撒半島的卡拉馬塔地區保留了一些希臘最重要、也是最人跡罕至的古跡,更不用說那里美麗的自然景觀和真正的農家飯。科斯塔納瓦里諾品位上乘而雅致,也是希臘需要的那種大型旅游度假區。 ????在希臘,我們出行時從未遇到不便或延誤。這曾經是希臘的一個普遍問題。給我們制造麻煩的只有美洲或歐洲航空公司,比如美國聯合航空、加拿大航空、達美航空、法國航空和德國漢莎航空,它們總會帶來這樣或那樣讓人頭疼的問題。希臘的愛琴海航空或奧林匹克航空卻不這樣;此外,我們在希臘坐了無數次渡船和公交車,也沒有出現問題。偶爾我們會遇到過分殷勤或態度冷淡的出租車司機、酒店前臺或者渡船搬運工。但總的來說,熱情好客的文化依然是主流。 ????盡管有這些成功之處,但今年希臘危機的影響還是撲面而來。在酒店前臺、出租車司機、餐館老板和政界人士的臉上都能看到真正的沮喪和憂慮,這讓我們意識到現代工業社會真的會遭遇衰退。“比爾先生,我們今后會怎么樣?美國能令我們不受制于歐洲嗎?” ????六年來,金融動蕩始終貫穿著希臘經濟,最明顯的表現就是ATM機前總是大排長龍。在這六年中,希臘經濟萎縮了近30%;三分之一的希臘人失業;在25歲以下的希臘人中,待業者占六成。 ????今年,我的孩子們第一次看到了希臘共產黨集會,到處都是紅旗飄舞。盡管是和平集會,但它告訴人們,經濟低迷會讓民眾更支持某些觀點,而(據我愚見)這些觀點只會讓希臘的境遇變得更糟。熱血集會的場面讓孩子們感到很開心,但我卻笑不出來。 ????希臘當然要承擔很大一部分責任。雅典一家餐廳的老板對我說:“我們選了一群笨蛋來治理國家。”在希臘,有太多對公眾福祉貢獻微乎其微的公務員。這就造成了預算問題,主要是因為希臘政府的稅收一直不足以支付那么多的工資和養老金。 ????但這也是個競爭力問題。希臘既需要為國內企業解除過多條條框框的束縛,還需要允許后者進行研發投資。希臘需要改革大學和研究機構,允許它們構建一個更善于創新和創業的社會。 ????更糟糕的是,歐洲也是希臘問題的直接成因之一。歐盟的著眼點一直在希臘的預算赤字上,而不是其競爭力基石上。現在,在歐洲的作用下,希臘處于倒退邊緣,民眾把拯救經濟的希望寄托在政府身上。無論他們是否愿意留在歐盟,我還沒有發現有哪個希臘人相信歐洲其他國家想幫助希臘重振經濟,降低失業率并提高競爭力。他們都直截了當地指出,歐盟只想讓希臘遵守歐元區的預算規定。 |
????My family and I started traveling annually to Greece in 2010, the year after the crisis began. ????Our visits mixed business and pleasure. As the former managing director of the Brookings Institution, I helped launch and supervise a Brookings study of the crisis, including recommendations for how to return competitiveness to the Greek economy. ????As a Greek American who spoke the language at home, but who rarely visited here as a kid, I wanted my own children to be exposed to the country’s history and culture and hospitality. ????Over these last five years, we’ve seen the growing impact on the lives of real people — shuttered stores in Athens, tales of people losing their jobs, pension cuts, businesses unable to find financing, tensions with middle eastern and north African immigrants, etc. ????We’ve also witnessed our share of public protests, and parliamentary debates. Two years ago, the then-finance minister, YannisStournaras, showed me the bullet hole in his office window. He’s now the Governor of the Bank of Greece, and in open disagreement with Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras. ????We’ve also witnessed sparkling successes. On the top of any tourist bucket list: the modern, gleaming new Acropolis museum. One well-traveled American friend described it as the best museum he’s ever visited … ever. It is a rare shining star in Greece of public sector success. ????And, on this trip, my wife and I helped organize travel for 100 friends to the exquisitely designed and implemented Costa Navarino resort in the western Peloponnese. The Kalamata region of Greece is home to some of the country’s most important and least explored antiquities, not to mention beautiful natural wonders and true farm-to-table dining. Costa Navarino is tasteful and elegant, and also the kind of large-scale tourist resort that Greece needs. ????In our annual visits here, we never once have had a travel inconvenience or delay within the country – once standard issue in Greece. Our only troubles have been on U.S. or European carriers: United Airlines, Air Canada, Delta DAL 0.19% , Air France AF 0.44% , Lufthansa , each caused one headache or another. But not so for Aegean or Olympic or the countless ferries and buses we’ve taken. One still meets an occasional officious or gruff taxi driver, hotel clerk, or ferry porter. But by and large, the hospitality culture dominates. ????Despite those successes, this year the crisis came home directly. The look of real frustration and fear in the faces of hotel clerks, cab drivers, restaurant owners, and politicians remind us that modern, industrial societies can experience true depression. “Mr. Bill, what will happen to us? Will America save us from Europe?” ????The long lines at ATMs are only the most noticeable tremor of financial instability that has been coursing through the economy for six years. In that period, the Greek economy has declined by nearly 30%, with one out of three Greeks out of work, and six out of ten Greeks under 25 in search of a job. ????This year, my kids got to see their first-ever Communist Party rally — red flags everywhere, and while peaceful, it was a reminder that economic distress fuels support for views that (in my humble opinion) will only lead to further misery for the country. The kids were amused. I was not. ????Greece certainly bears much of the blame. “We have chosen to be governed by fools,” one Athenian restaurant owner told me. It is a country with too many public employees who deliver too little public benefit. That’s a budgetary issue – largely because it has not been able to generate enough tax revenue to pay those salaries and pensions. ????But it’s also a competitiveness issue. Greeks need to both free up their companies from excessive red-tape, and also allow their companies to invest in research and development. They need to reform their universities and research institutes, allowing them to build a more innovative, and entrepreneurial society. ????Worse still, Europe has directly contributed to the problem. The EU has focused only on Greece’s budget deficits, and not on the building blocks of competitiveness. Now, with Europe’s help, the country is on the verge of moving backwards, of seeing the Greek state as the salvation of economic malaise. Whether or not Greeks favor staying in the EU, I have not met one Greek who believes that European partners care about restoring growth, alleviating unemployment, or building a more competitive Greece. They rightly point out that the EU simply want Greece to follow the Eurozone’s budget rules. |