????本周，全球幾大產油國的領導人將在維也納會面。幾乎同時，油價開始在每桶60美元左右企穩。

????隨著夏季駕車出行高峰臨近，消費者可能會擔心本次會談將重現30多年前的場景：旨在通過限制供給提高油價的各石油出口國將推動原油產量下降。但今時不同往日，1979年石油輸出國組織（OPEC）曾權傾一時，占全球石油產量的一半，相比之下，目前其石油產量只占全球不到三分之一。

????今年2月份，《財富》雜志曾對油價暴跌進行過報道，當時，資深價值投資者杰里米?格蘭瑟姆等人告訴我們，長期來看油價會回到每桶100美元以上。其他分析人士，比如經濟學家魯比尼等認為，低油價只會延續一年或一年半，沙特等產油國只是借此擠壓美國頁巖油生產商等高成本的競爭對手。

????Leaders from some of the world’s most productive oil-exporting nations will meet this week in Vienna, just as oil prices have begun to stabilize at around $60 per barrel.

????As we near peak summer driving season, American consumers would have worried a generation ago that such a meeting would be an impetus for a pullback in production, with oil exporters aiming to raise prices by limiting supply. But the world has changed a great deal since the height of OPEC’s power in 1979, when member nations accounted for 50% of global oil production, compared with less than one-third today.

????When Fortune published its report on the collapse of oil prices in February, investors like Jeremy Grantham told us that oil would be heading back to a price per barrel of more than $100 in the long run. Other analysts, like economist Nouriel Roubini, argued that cheap oil would last just a year or 18 months before producers like Saudi Arabia had successfully flushed out higher-cost competitors like shale producers here in the U.S.

????魯比尼的預言能否成真還要一段時間才能見分曉。不過，近幾個月的實際情況表明，從飽受戰爭創傷的伊拉克石油企業，到美國頁巖油生產商，全世界的石油公司都沒有被低油價嚇得止步不前。就算今年夏天美國汽油消費量上升，我們仍然認為低油價時代不會很快結束，原因有以下四點。

????1. 低利率意味著美國石油生產商的資金成本不高。《華爾街日報》上周日指出，盡管油價不斷下跌，投資者仍然很愿意為美國的石油勘探和精煉提供資金。因為利率偏低，投資者正在尋求各種穩健的投資渠道，就連成本高價格低的石油公司都不存在融資問題：

????“去年原油價格開始暴跌時，許多能源專家都預計1986年的情景將重現。當時美國石油企業資金斷流，行業低谷持續了好幾年。資金匱乏的石油公司只能放慢生產速度，甚至停產，而美國石油正是全球供給過剩的原因之一。許多公司都被迫出售給競爭對手，要么就得破產。”

????“然而本輪油價暴跌后，并未大規模出現當年行業下滑時的慘狀。因為銀行、私募股權公司和機構投資者的資金源源不斷地涌向石油領域，哪怕石油生產商削減數十億美元預算又裁員逾十萬人，也擋不住投資的熱情。”

????2. 沙特除了繼續產油別無選擇。沙特曾在全球石油市場扮演“產量調節器”的角色，可以通過增減產來保持油價穩定并賺取高額利潤，如今時移世易。《紐約時報》刊登的一篇文章深入探討了幾十年來沙特的變化。首先，由于政局不穩，與政府繼續用石油賺取大筆收入相比，保持石油行業就業水平更加重要；其次，世界其他地區產油量激增，沙特生產的石油不再像過去那樣重要；最后，在過去30年中，隨著低硫原油產量下降，沙特越發依賴于出口質量較低的石油。為此，沙特一直投資提高石油精煉產能。正是這項投資需求促使沙特即便在油價不斷下跌的情況下，也得繼續產油。

????3. 伊朗的石油可能很快進入國際市場。如果伊朗和美國就核問題達成正式協議，從而解除石油禁運，全球原油供應就會進一步上升。分析師估算，到2016年，解禁后的伊朗可能會讓全球石油日供應量增加100萬桶。屆時如果美國頁巖油企業資金耗盡，伊朗的石油將為市場供應提供緩沖。

????4. 可再生能源越發廉價。本月初，《金融時報》引述某位未具名沙特官員的話稱：“沙特希望石油時代延續下去……希望石油仍是主要能源，也希望沙特仍是主要產油國。”這也是OPEC成員國減產動力不大的另一個原因，即可再生能源已經開始讓化石燃料面臨真正的競爭，而產油國愿意維持石油的廉價能源地位。

????人們經常說，低油價不會妨礙太陽能等可再生能源崛起，因為石油主要為汽車等機器提供動力，而可再生能源大多用于發電。然而，高油價也是電動汽車等產品的福音。舉例來說，美國汽車信息網站Edmunds.com上個月報道，電動汽車的用戶忠誠度有史以來首次跌至50%以下。Edmunds產業分析總監杰西卡?考德威爾表示：“不管怎么說，現在看來許多混合動力車以及電動汽車車主換車就是為了省錢，而不是出于保護環境的責任感。”（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????審校：夏林

????While there’s still time for Roubini’s prediction to come true, the intervening months have shown that producers around the world—from embattled drillers in war-torn Iraq, to shale concerns here in the U.S.—aren’t being scared off by cheap prices. Here are four reasons why we can expect the era of cheap oil to continue, even as Americans consume more gasoline this summer.

????1. Low interest rates mean cheap money for American producers.A report in The Wall Street Journal Sunday showed that despite falling prices, investors are still eager to fund oil exploration and extraction efforts here in the U.S. With interest rates so low and investors searching for anything that will provide decent returns, even oil companies facing high costs of production and low market prices are having no problem getting funding:

????“As crude prices began to plunge last year, many energy experts predicted a repeat of 1986 when U.S. oil companies lost their funding and the industry collapsed into a yearslong bust. Without money, companies had to slow or even stop drilling for the crude that helped create a global glut. Many were forced to sell out to rivals or go bankrupt.”

????“But the gloomy scenario of that downturn hasn’t played out on a large scale this time. That is because banks, private-equity firms and institutional investors have continued to pour money into the sector even as oil companies slashed billions of dollars in spending from their budgets and laid off more than 100,000 workers.”

????2. Saudi Arabia has no choice but to keep pumping.Long gone are the days when Saudi Arabia acted as the so-called “swing producer” in the global oil market, when it would increase or decrease production to keep prices stable and profits high. A report in The New York Times delves into what has changed in the Middle Eastern kingdom over the last generation. For one, political instability has made maintaining employment in the oil industry more important than keeping government revenues from oil sales high. Second, the explosion in oil production elsewhere in the world means that Saudi Arabia’s production just isn’t as significant as it once was. And finally, over the previous 30 years, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on selling lower quality oil as its supply of “sweeter” crude has dwindled. To facilitate this, the kingdom has invested in its refinery capabilities, and that investment demands that it keep the oil flowing, even amid falling prices.

????3.Iran’s oil could soon hit the global market. If Iran and the United States finalize an agreement on the latter’s nuclear enrichment program and lift an embargo against Iranian oil, we would see another increase in global supply. Analysts estimate that a sanction-free Iran could add another 1 million barrels per day of oil to global supply by 2016, providing a supply cushion if U.S. shale producers end up running out of financing.

????4. Renewable energy continues to get cheaper.Earlier this month, an unnamed Saudi official told The Financial Times, “Saudi Arabia wants to extend the age of oil…. We want oil to continue to be used as a major source of energy and we want to be the major producer of that energy.” That logic is another reason why OPEC countries have less of an incentive to cut back production: renewable energy sources is starting to give fossil fuels some serious competition, and oil-exporting countries have an interest in keeping oil a cheap alternative.

????It’s often said that cheap oil will not hurt the rise of renewables like solar because oil is used mainly to power things like automobiles, while renewables are mostly used for electricity generation. But expensive oil has been a boon to products like electric cars, too. Edmunds.com announced last month, for instance, that for the first time ever loyalty rates for electric car owners fell below 50%. “For better or worse, it looks like many hybrid and EV owners are driven more by financial motives rather than a responsibility to the environment,” said Edmunds.com director of industry analysis Jessica Caldwell.