????從尋常巷陌到華爾街，從北京到巴黎，人人都想知道油價將是漲是跌。要探討這個問題，我覺得我們應該先要問清楚，為何此前紐約商品交易所的油價會直線下跌，從2014年夏天的每桶逾105美元跌至2015年1月的約47美元。然后，我們再來看造成油價暴跌的因素今后會不會出現逆轉。

????首先，油價主要由石油交易商在紐約商交所等市場上的綜合行為決定。當交易商預期油價上漲時，就會買入原油期貨以期隨后賣出套利。這些買入行為會推動油價上漲，最終也會推高汽油和民用燃料油等衍生品的價格。

????正如我在《石油熱潮之謎》一書中談到的，2014-2015年的油價暴跌是一場多因素聯袂演繹的“完美風暴”。彼時全球經濟增速放緩，尤其是在中國、印度、日本和歐洲，因此國際能源署于2014年10月中旬下調了全球石油需求預期。此外，美元匯率也達到了兩年高點（由于國際上石油經常用美元計價，美元貶值通常會推高油價）。

????地緣政治方面，利比亞局勢逐漸穩定，石油產量開始提高；交易商對伊朗核談判的前景更為樂觀，該地區爆發戰爭的可能性大大減少，對伊朗的制裁有望取消，石油出口量也可能大幅提高。

????最重要的是，2014年11月，沙特及其他石油輸出國組織成員帶頭宣布不減產。他們本來可以通過減產抵消美國石油熱潮帶來的新增產量，后者對油價形成了持續壓力。通常情況下，沙特起碼會想辦法把油價維持在某個區間，本次不作為的態度實屬罕見，而這正是這次油價直線下跌的主要促因。

????2015年1月油價觸及低點后，一些造成油價暴跌的因素開始反轉。這就是最近石油期貨價格反彈，并在五個月里首次突破每桶60美元的原因。現在我們應該作何預期呢？

????全球經濟仍是一大不確定因素。堅挺的美元對美國的出口和GDP造成了不利影響，但世界其他經濟體則正從這種失衡中獲益。以歐洲為例，歐盟委員會最近就上調了歐元區經濟增長預期。不過，作為石油消費大國，中國的經濟增長率降至了多年來的最低點。

????美元最近稍有回落，相應地，油價近期有所上漲。不過美聯儲可能將提高利率，在其他條件不變的情況下，這將支撐美元走強，從而繼續壓低油價。

????近期地緣政治方面又有新動向，利比亞一處石油港口發生抗議活動，油價隨之上升，也顯示出利比亞局勢依然不穩定。其實許多主要產油國都面臨這個問題，比如伊拉克、尼日利亞和委內瑞拉。但另一方面，也是更重要的一點是，伊朗核談判似乎很可能成功。盡管伊朗提高石油產量仍需時日，但戰爭警報解除應該可以讓石油交易商松一口氣。

????美國石油業的蓬勃發展勢頭已有所減弱，這可能是2014年沙特拒絕維持油價時希望看到的情況。油價暴跌已經導致美國一半的油井停產。石油輸出國組織最近斷言，美國的石油產量即將見頂，而這也是最近油價上揚的原因之一。除非油價持續反彈，否則已關閉的美國油井可能將繼續停產。

????接下來，沙特將采取怎樣的行動呢？此前沙特不減產可能是為了打壓迅猛增長的美國石油業，遏制主要對手伊朗，并提高石油輸出國組織的紀律性。如今目標都已實現，沙特很可能認為已經完成任務。而且，像許多石油輸出國組織成員一樣，沙特需要高一點的油價來完成預算指標，為其日益壯大的高福利社會提供更多資金。因此，沙特很可能不會繼續打壓當前油價。

????總之，今后六個月油價可能價格既不會過高，也不會過低。我估計在所有因素作用下，平均油價將在52-68美元之間波動，除非出現意料之外的重大情況。

????這樣的油價水平對美國和全球經濟來說沒什么問題。消費者仍將從偏低的油價中受益，能源行業也不至于整體陷入困境。

????但無論怎樣，不要忘記推動綠色能源并實施可持續發展策略，這樣方為明智之舉，也可以降低石油市場急劇波動對我們造成的影響。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????審校: 夏林

????From Main Street to Wall Street, Beijing to Paris, people are interested in whether oil prices will rise or fall. I suggest that we begin to examine this question by asking why oil prices dropped like a rocket from over $105 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in summer 2014 to around $47 per barrel in January 2015. We can then see if the causes of the price collapse are likely to reverse going forward.

????For starters, oil prices are determined mainly by the combined behavior of oil traders on markets like the NYMEX. When traders believe that oil prices will rise, they buy oil futures in hopes of selling them later for a profit. Such buying increases oil prices, and, eventually, the price of derivatives, such as gasoline and heating oil.

????As I discuss in my book, “Myths of the Oil Boom,” the oil price crash of 2014-2015 resulted from a perfect storm of developments. Global economic growth slowed worldwide most notably in China, India, Japan, and in Europe, leading the International Energy Agency to lower its forecast for global oil demand in mid-October 2014. Moreover, the US dollar reached two-year highs (because oil is priced globally in dollars, a weak dollar usually raises the price of oil).

????Geo-politically, Libya stabilized and started to pump more oil, and traders became more sanguine about a nuclear deal with Iran that would prevent war in the region, lift sanctions on Iran, and free it to export much more of its oil.

????Most importantly, the Saudis and other OPEC members decided chiefly in November 2014 not to cut oil production. That could have offset the extra oil production of the American oil boom, which in and of itself was pressuring prices. Saudi inaction, which was rare given the Kingdom’s historical role of at least trying to keep oil prices in a range, was the main trigger of the oil price free fall.

????Since the January 2015 low in oil prices, some of the causes of the price collapse have started to reverse, which explains why oil futures recently rebounded to over $60 per barrel for the first time in five months. What can we now expect?

????The global economy remains a big wild card. The strong dollar has hurt American exports and gross domestic product, but others around the world have benefited from this imbalance such as Europe where the European Commission recently raised its forecast for Eurozone economic growth. Yet, China’s oil guzzling economy is growing at its slowest pace in many years.

????The US dollar has weakened a bit, which is correlated with the recent rise of oil prices, but the Federal Reserve could eventually raise interest rates, which could buttress the US dollar and continue to suppress oil prices, all things equal.

????Geo-politically, recent protests at a Libyan oil port contributed to rising oil prices and that underscored Libya’s ongoing instability—a problem faced by other major producers, including Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela. But on the flip side and far more importantly, nuclear negotiations with Iran seem likely to succeed. Yes, it will take time for Iran to ramp up oil production, but taking war off the table should placate oil traders.

????For its part, the American oil boom has lost some steam—which is probably what the Saudis wanted when they refused to buttress oil prices in 2014. Half of the American oil rigs have been shut down due to the oil price crash, leading OPEC recently to conclude that America is near an oil-output peak. And that has contributed to the recent rise in oil prices. These rigs are likely to remain shuttered unless oil prices recover in a sustained way, which will probably bring the rigs back into action.

????Then there is the House of Saud. What will the Saudis do? By failing to cut their oil production, they have met their probable goals of hurting the U.S. oil boom; checking their arch enemy Iran; and instilling more discipline in OPEC. They probably think that their work is done for now. And, anyway, they need higher oil prices, as do many OPEC members, to meet their budget targets at home and to subsidize their growing cradle-to-grave society. They probably won’t take action to suppress oil prices at these levels.

????Overall, then, we may expect a Goldilocks price scenario in the next six months—not too high and not too low. My guess is that all these countervailing forces will yield an average price between $52 and $68, barring major unforeseen developments.

????And that’s just fine for the American and global economy. Consumers will continue to benefit from relatively lower prices, while the energy industry will not be hobbled altogether.

????But whatever happens, we would be wise not to forget about greener energies and practices for a sustainable future, partly to temper our vulnerability to the vagaries of oil markets.