????還記得新年時你給自己定下的2015年計劃嗎？比如“減肥，學(xué)一門外語，到遠(yuǎn)方旅行”…對那些最精明的投資者來說，必不可少的一項計劃是：多讀一些年報。眼下正是實施這個計劃的最佳時機。除了那些規(guī)模較小的上市公司以外，現(xiàn)在美股市場上，大多數(shù)公司的年報都已經(jīng)可以看到。再過一個月，公司2015年第一季度的業(yè)績也會陸續(xù)公布。現(xiàn)在正是回顧上年年報，快速對一家公司今年前景如何形成初步概念的最佳時機。但這些年報往往長達(dá)數(shù)百頁，為了避免各種細(xì)節(jié)把你搞暈，你可以重點關(guān)注以下五點：

????1. 委內(nèi)瑞拉。委內(nèi)瑞拉正奮力解決通脹和社會動蕩問題，導(dǎo)致該國貨幣持續(xù)貶值。對于在當(dāng)?shù)剡\營的美國跨國公司來說，這會使收益嚴(yán)重受挫。大家可以在上市公司的年報里搜索一下“委內(nèi)瑞拉”這個詞，看看其中是否提到了委內(nèi)瑞拉的混亂局勢對收入和凈投資的影響。

????2. 強勢美元的影響。這又是一項外部風(fēng)險，但好歹是“家事”。2014年，美元迅速升值，而且預(yù)計還會進(jìn)一步走強。雖然這對美國人來說可能意味著去歐洲旅游變得很劃算，但對美國公司而言情況較為復(fù)雜。找到綜合收益表，這份報表通常緊跟在損益表后面。然后看一下其中的外幣折算調(diào)整項目。如果這個數(shù)字和稅前利潤等項目比起來較大，而且是負(fù)值，那就意味著2014年下半年美元的強勢表現(xiàn)對這家公司產(chǎn)生了不利影響。再找到管理層討論與分析部分，看看管理層是否對2015年的前景發(fā)出了警告。

????3. 合同約定付款。這是美國證監(jiān)會10K表格中最有用的項目之一。這張表在管理層討論與分析部分，其中列出了公司按照合同所承擔(dān)的現(xiàn)金債務(wù)。大家可以把它視為公司的現(xiàn)金預(yù)算，至少是現(xiàn)金流出額。這么說吧，在上市公司變得捉襟見肘之前，大家就可以用這些短期現(xiàn)金流出額與現(xiàn)金流量表中經(jīng)營活動產(chǎn)生的現(xiàn)金流做一下對比。

????4. 低稅率。如果一家公司把更多未稅國外收益用于“無限期再投資”，并一再通過這種壓低稅率的方法小幅提升年度業(yè)績，那么大家就需要對此有所警惕了。畢竟，好景不常在。看一下這些公司的盈利能力。如果某家公司增加凈利潤的途徑是降低稅率，而不是經(jīng)營性收益，那就可以給它打上一個更大的問號。

????5. 讀一下管理層討論與分析中的“關(guān)鍵會計政策與估值”。在這里，大家可以看到管理層就年報中最敏感部分提出的警告。或者說，在這些最敏感的地方，管理層必須報出最符合股東心意的數(shù)字。大家可以將其視為膽量或IQ測試。如果你對管理層談到的問題沒有任何頭緒，那么最好還是不要把資金投入這家公司。

????年報要完整的讀一遍，但開始時帶著目標(biāo)去讀會對你有所幫助。請把以上這五點作為你的最低目標(biāo)，然后開始閱讀年報。等到一季度財報出爐時，你也就讀完年報了。減肥之類的新年計劃也形同此理。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者是位于巴爾的摩的資產(chǎn)管理和研究公司R.G.Associates, Inc.的總裁，該公司為機構(gòu)投資者出版研究服務(wù)資訊刊物《The Analyst’s Accounting Observer》。

????譯者：Charlie

????審校:李翔

????Remember those new year resolutions of 2015 – the ones like “l(fā)ose ten pounds, learn a foreign language, and travel to distant places?” For the most savvy investors, don’t forget one more: read more annual reports. It’s the perfect time to make good on this commitment. Most companies’ reports are available now except for the smallest public firms. With earnings season for the first quarter only a month away, it’s the perfect time to review a company’s annual report and get a snapshot of what the outlook will be in the year ahead. These reports can easily run hundreds of pages long; rather than get bogged down by the details, here are 5 things to watch for:

????1. Venezuela. The country’s battles with inflation and unrest have led to persistent currency devaluations that cause translation headaches and earnings jolts for U.S. multinationals operating in Venezuela. Run a Control-F on “Venezuela” in every annual report to find mentions of the firm’s revenue and net investment exposure to Venezuelan turmoil.

????2. The strong U.S. Dollar’s footprints. Another foreign exposure, yet close to home. The value of the greenback rose rapidly in 2014 and expected to strengthen further. While this signals it’s probably a good time for U.S. tourist to finally book that Europe vacation, it gets more complex for U.S. companies. Find the “Statement of Comprehensive Income,” which usually follows the income statement, and look for an item in it called “Currency Translation Adjustment.” If it’s big – for instance, compared to pretax income – and negative, the company was affected negatively by the dollar’s strength in the last part of 2014. Also, take a look at the Management’s Discussion & Analysis (MD&A) section to see if management has any warnings of what to expect in 2015.

????3. Contractual payments. One of the handiest 10-K requirements the SEC ever dreamed up, this table lists by year the contractually-required cash obligations of a firm right in the MD&A. Think of it as a company-issued cash budget – at least for the outflows. Compare the near-term outflows to the cash generated by the company’s operations as shown in the cash flow statement – before a company’s shorts get it in a knot, so to speak.

????4. Low tax rates. If a firm has been chiseling a little more out its tax rate each year by “indefinitely reinvesting” more untaxed foreign earnings, you’d be right to be somewhat skeptical. After all, all good things come to an end. Check the strength of a firm’s operating earnings; if the company depends on improving its tax rate to improve net earnings, instead of operating earnings, increase your skepticism.

????5. Read the “Critical Accounting Policies & Estimates” in the MD&A. This is where management is warning you about the most sensitive areas in the financial statements – the places where they have to come up with the most malleable numbers they report to shareholders. Consider it a gut check or an IQ test – if you don’t have the slightest idea of what they’re telling you, you probably should not be an investor in the company.

????Read all of the annual report – but it helps to have a goal when you start. Make these five points your minimum goal and get started. By the time the first quarter is reported, you’ll be finished with the annual reports – and you can start working on those ten pounds.

????Jack T. Ciesielski is president of R.G. Associates, Inc., an asset management and research firm in Baltimore that publishes The Analyst’s Accounting Observer, a research service for institutional.