數(shù)據(jù)表明中國經(jīng)濟明顯放緩
????目前,服務業(yè)創(chuàng)造的就業(yè)機會仍足以抵消制造業(yè)裁員的影響,經(jīng)濟滑坡給后者帶來的沖擊最大。不過,中新社周二報道,中國人力資源和社會保障部部長尹蔚民表示,如果經(jīng)濟繼續(xù)放緩,要完成政府的就業(yè)目標“任務十分艱巨”。 ????由于政府日益重視就業(yè)水平,這樣的表態(tài)抬高了外界對更多刺激措施的預期。澳新銀行駐香港分析師指出,包括中專、技校和初中高中畢業(yè)生在內(nèi),今年中國城鎮(zhèn)新增勞動力將達到1500萬人,進城務工人員的數(shù)量也將大幅上升。 ????越來越多的國家都已通過放松貨幣政策來支持經(jīng)濟增長。上周,中國也加入了這一行列。中國央行將存款準備金率下調(diào)0.5個百分點至19.5%,從而為銀行提供了6000億元人民幣(約合960億美元)可用資金。該行還在三個月內(nèi)兩次下調(diào)基準利率,只是受中國的金融市場監(jiān)管方式影響,基準利率在中國的作用和發(fā)達國家不完全一樣。 |
????For the moment, the services sector is still creating more than enough jobs to offset labor-shedding in a manufacturing sector that is bearing the brunt of the slowdown. However, the newspaper China News Tuesday quoted China’s Minister of Human Resources and Social Security Yin Weimin as saying that the government’s employment goals will be “difficult to achieve” if the slowdown continues. ????Such comments have raised the expectation of more stimulus, due to Beijing’s increasing focus on employment levels. Analysts at ANZ bank in Hong Kong note that around 15 million students will graduate from vocation, technical or middle schools this year, with many more migrating from rural areas to cities in search of work. ????Last week, China joined the swelling ranks of those countries that have relaxed monetary policy to support growth. The central bank cut its reserve requirement ratio for large banks by 0.50 percent to 19.5%, freeing up some 600 billion yuan ($96 billion) for the banks to deploy. It has also cut official interest rates twice in three months, although official rates don’t have quite the same impact in China as they do in developed markets, owing to the way financial markets are regulated. |
????這些措施是否足以保持經(jīng)濟穩(wěn)步發(fā)展,那是另一個問題。房地產(chǎn)市場的巨大泡沫繼續(xù)縮小(住宅成交量同比下降了16%),而中國政府可能需要大力干預,以免大批違約事件產(chǎn)生破壞性影響。 ????此外,通縮風險似乎正在上升,而不是下降。國家統(tǒng)計局周一公布,今年2月份,工業(yè)生產(chǎn)者出廠價格同比下降4.8%,這是2009年以來的最大跌幅。(財富中文網(wǎng)) ????譯者:Charlie ????審校: Lina |
????Whether all that will be enough to keep the economy on an even keel is another question. A massive bubble in property development is still deflating (housing sales were down 16% year-on-year), and drastic intervention from Beijing may be needed to prevent a wage of damaging defaults. ????Moreover, the risk of deflation appears to be increasing rather than decreasing. Producer prices fell by 4.8% in the year through February, the NBS reported Monday, the biggest drop since 2009. |