數(shù)據(jù)表明中國經(jīng)濟明顯放緩
????周二公布的一系列數(shù)據(jù)顯示,中國經(jīng)濟放緩的幅度遠遠超過之前預(yù)期的水平。 ????今年前兩個月,中國的工業(yè)產(chǎn)值、零售銷售額和固定資產(chǎn)投資增速都遠低于市場預(yù)期。這引發(fā)了對當(dāng)局將出臺更多刺激措施的猜測,政府或?qū)⒉坏貌粍佑眠@些手段來實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長目標(biāo),盡管該目標(biāo)已經(jīng)降至二十多年來的最低點。 ????外界普遍認(rèn)為,中國經(jīng)濟放緩是今年全球經(jīng)濟面臨的最大威脅之一。美聯(lián)儲也將其視為美國經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇的特定風(fēng)險之一。 ????據(jù)中國國家統(tǒng)計局公布,今年1-2月份國內(nèi)工業(yè)總產(chǎn)值同比僅增長6.8%,這是2009年中國經(jīng)濟觸底以來的最低增速,而且明顯低于經(jīng)濟學(xué)家預(yù)測的7.8%。同時,固定資產(chǎn)投資增速也從2014年12月的15.7%降至13.9%。 ????為了減輕春節(jié)假期對數(shù)據(jù)帶來的影響,中國政府會把每年前兩個月的多項經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)合并后公布。 ????政府官員對于工業(yè)增長放緩的跡象普遍持樂觀態(tài)度,因為這和中國的長期戰(zhàn)略一致——讓經(jīng)濟增長更倚重于國內(nèi)消費和服務(wù)業(yè)的拉動。 ????但周二公布的數(shù)據(jù)表明,消費增速也明顯下滑。盡管相對于發(fā)達經(jīng)濟體來說,這樣的增長水平依然非常高。今年1-2月份,中國社會消費品零售總額同比增長10.7%,低于去年12月的11.9%。 |
????China’s economy is slowing at a much sharper rate than previously thought, according to a raft of data out Tuesday. ????Figures for industrial production, retail sales and investment in fixed assets in the first two months of the year all fell well short of market expectations, prompting fresh speculation that Beijing will have to resort to more stimulus measures to meet what is already its most modest growth target in over 20 years. ????The slowdown in China is widely seen as one of the biggest threats to the world economy this year, with the Federal Reserve also singling it out as a particular risk to the U.S. recovery. ????According to the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial output in January and February was up only 6.8% from a year earlier, the slowest since the trough of the 2009 downturn, and clearly below the 7.8% rate forecast by economists. At the same time, the rate of growth in investment in fixed assets fell to 13.9% from 15.7% in December. ????China bundles many of its data for the first two months of the year in order to smooth out the effect of the Lunar New Year holiday, which can fall in either month. ????Government officials have been generally sanguine about signs of slowing industrial growth, as it’s in line with their longer-term strategy of re-orienting the economy more to domestic consumption and services. ????But the figures showed that consumption, too, is slowing appreciably–albeit to rates that developed economies would consider alarmingly high. Retail sales grew 10.7% on the year, down from a rate of 11.9% in December. |