????GDP目標關系重大嗎？在中國，是這樣沒錯。中國經濟在許多方面仍不成熟。首先，中國政府的財政預算以經濟增長目標為基礎。其次，貨幣政策也要遵循這個目標。如果經濟沒有“充分”發揮潛力，中國央行就可以為市場注入流動性。第三，GDP目標有助于讓中國的貿易伙伴安心，因為這表明中國和歐美競爭對手不同，注意力將放在按預期實現經濟目標上。這既會影響到自然資源價格，又會影響其他新興市場經濟體。

????GDP目標對中國民眾來說重要嗎？不那么重要。無論新聞媒體什么時候提到中國的經濟增長率，記住一點很有用，那就是增長率并不會提高個人富裕程度。盡管中國是全球第二大經濟體，但中國的人均收入水平仍非常低。

????Do GDP targets even matter? In China, yes. Its economy is still immature in many ways. First, fiscal budgets in the country are based off the target number. Second, monetary policy is aligned with the targets too—the central bank can pump liquidity into the market if the economy isn’t reaching its “full” potential. Third, targets help reassure trading partners that China, unlike its European or U.S. competitors, will focus on predictably meeting economic targets that influence everything from natural resource prices to other emerging market economies.

????Do GDP growth targets matter to Chinese people? Less so. Whenever China’s GDP growth is in the headlines, it’s helpful to remember that individual prosperity isn’t driven by growth rates. China’s average per capita income remains very low despite the country’s standing as the world’s number two economy.

????就算將不同市場的價格按統一標準進行折算，中國1.2萬美元的人均國民總收入也只有智利的一半，和秘魯相當。

????幾年前，中國作家余華曾從普通中國人的角度寫過這個問題：“2010年中國的財政收入可望達到八萬億元，有關部門驕傲地聲稱中國將成為世界第二富國，僅次于美國。可是在這個光榮的數據后面，卻是一個讓人不安的數據，人均年收入仍然在世界的一百位。這兩項應該是接近或者平衡的經濟指標，在今天的中國竟然差距如此巨大。” 龍洲經訊分析師巴特森指出，隨著收入水平趕上發達市場，發展中國家的經濟增長率一般都會下降。中國目前的情況就是如此，但中國還有很長的路要走。

????Even after standardizing prices in different markets, China’s gross national income per capita of $12,000 is half that of Chile’s and on a par with Peru’s.

????Chinese author Yu Hua wrote several years ago about the issue from the perspective of the average Chinese citizen: “In 2010 China’s revenues are set to hit 8 trillion yuan, and we are told proudly that we are on the verge of becoming the second- richest country in the world, trailing only the United States. But behind these dazzling statistics is another, unsettling one: in terms of per capita income China is still languishing at a low rank, one hundredth in the world. These two economic indicators, which should be similar or in balance, are miles apart in China today.” Gavekal’s Batson points out that a developing country’s growth rate typically falls as incomes rise into developed market levels, which is happening now in China, but there’s a long way to go.

????那么，如何看待中國的經濟放緩以及中國政府下調增長目標呢？咨詢公司鼎榮集團分析師丹尼爾?羅森和包蓓蓓一直密切跟蹤中國市場。今年早些時候，他們解釋了中國經濟放緩幅度令人擔心的原因。兩位分析師指出，中國經濟增速放慢是因為重工業領域的資本密集型投資正在減速，這種投資創造的就業機會較少，但對GDP促進極大，“而資金需求少，能創造更多就業機會的服務業正在發展壯大。”

????他們的結論是什么呢？“7%左右的GDP增長率與就業需求相符，前提是改革繼續為新的經濟活動開辟空間，特別是在服務行業。”

????這么說來，下調經濟增長目標看來并不那么令人緊張。不過，這還要取決于大家從哪個角度來看待這個問題。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????審稿：李翔

????So how to view China’s slowdown and target reduction? Earlier this year, Rhodium Group analysts Daniel Rosen and Beibei Bao, who closely follow the country’s market, explained the causes of the country’s alarming slowdown. They pointed out that China’s growth is slowing because capital-intensive investment in heavy industry that creates few jobs, but outsized GDP, is slowing “while services, which use less capital and create more jobs, are growing.”

????Their conclusion? “A headline value around 7% for GDP growth is consistent with employment requirements, provided reform continues to open room for new activity, especially in the services sector.”

????In that way, a lower target growth rate doesn’t look so alarming. But it depends on your perspective.