????來自印度方面的官方消息：經(jīng)過20年的飛速發(fā)展，中國將在今年卸任“全球增長最快的經(jīng)濟大國”這一頭銜，接任者是印度。

????上周五，新德里公布的最新規(guī)劃中稱，印度政府預計下一年國內(nèi)GDP增長率將超過8%，并在隨后幾年突破10%（注：印度政府的財年從每年4月份開始，而非按日歷年計算）。

????與此同時，中國的增長正在放緩，政府正轉(zhuǎn)換重心，從出口導向型制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)向內(nèi)需和服務驅(qū)動經(jīng)濟。盡管如此，中國的經(jīng)濟規(guī)模仍是印度的兩倍以上。也就是說，在可預見的未來，亞洲經(jīng)濟的主要動力仍將來自中國，而不是印度。

????It’s official, sort of. After 20 years of breakneck growth, China is going to pass the title of the world’s fastest growing big economy to India this year.

????New projections out of New Delhi Friday confirmed that the government expects gross domestic product to grow by over 8% next year, rising to over 10% in subsequent years (albeit, the government’s fiscal year runs from April to April, rather than being a calendar year).

????Delhi’s forecasts come as China’s growth is slowing down, as the authorities switch their emphasis from export-oriented manufacturing to more domestically- and service-based activities. However, China’s economy remains more than twice as large as India’s, meaning that it, rather than India, will remain Asia’s powerhouse for the foreseeable future.

????印度政府在經(jīng)濟調(diào)查報告中稱：“印度已處于一個‘最佳擊球點’——這在世界各國的歷史上都相當少見——使其最終將踏上一個兩位數(shù)的中期增長軌道。這種勢頭將使印度達到基本目標——讓所有現(xiàn)存的貧困和弱勢群體‘擦去眼淚’，并為日益增加的年輕人和中產(chǎn)階級提供機會，使雄心勃勃的印度發(fā)揮出無限潛力。”

????經(jīng)濟調(diào)查報告歷來都是印度政府制定年度預算的基礎。本次報告由享譽國際的經(jīng)濟學家阿爾溫德?薩布拉曼尼亞執(zhí)筆。報告敦促印度財政部長阿蘭?賈特里利用這一有利環(huán)境來實施總理莫迪去年參加競選時提出的大膽改革計劃。

????全球金融危機過后，印度經(jīng)濟增速一度大幅下降，但去年有了起色。人們樂觀地認為，莫迪政府將讓印度對投資更加開放，并減少官僚主義。不過，到目前為止莫迪還在為開展改革奮力爭取，而印度經(jīng)濟好轉(zhuǎn)在很大程度上顯然得益于國際油價的暴跌，這有助于降低長期困擾印度的經(jīng)常賬戶赤字。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????審稿：李翔

????“India has reached a sweet spot—rare in the history of nations—in which it could finally be launched on a double-digit medium-term growth trajectory,” the government’s Economic Survey said. “This trajectory would allow the country to attain the fundamental objectives of ‘wiping every tear from every eye’ of the still poor and vulnerable, while affording the opportunities for increasingly young, middle-class, and aspirational India to realize its limitless potential.”

????The survey is traditionally a document that forms the basis for the country’s annual budgets, and the latest edition, penned by the internationally-respected economist Arvind Subramanian, urged Finance Minister Arun Jaitley to use the favorable conditions to deliver the bold reforms promised by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in his election campaign last year.

????India’s growth slowed significantly after the financial crisis but has appeared to recover in the last year on optimism that Modi will make the country more open to investment and cut bureaucracy. However, he has struggled to deliver much in the way of reforms so far, and much of the improvement in the economy appears more down to the collapse in world oil prices, which has helped cut its troubling current account deficit.