????我們在過去六年看到的牛市是在多種力量作用下形成的，但股票回購是其中最重要的因素。由于低利率和充滿不確定感的經濟環境，美國公司手握大量現金。各大公司覺得，與其把錢花在未必能成功的內部投資上，還不如通過回購股票來回饋股東。

????回購股票和支付股息，究竟哪一種是更好的回饋方式？這個爭論已經持續了好幾十年。但我們都同意，各大公司一窩蜂地回購股票，已經顯著地提振了股價。這張由研究公司Bianco Research制作的圖表，為我們展示了回購股票是如何導致股價在經濟衰退結束后持續飆升，如今已接近歷史最高點的。

????Many forces have fueled the bull market we have witnessed over the past six years, but share repurchases are at the top of the list. Driven by low interest rates and an economy rife with uncertainty, Corporate America is awash with cash. Rather than spend that money on internal investments that might not pan out, companies have instead decided to return that money to shareholders by buying their own stock.

????The debate over whether it’s better for firms to send money to shareholders in the form of buybacks or in the form of dividends has gone on for decades. But we can all agree that companies ramping up their share repurchasing has buoyed stock prices. This chart from Bianco Research shows how buybacks have soared since the end of the recession and are now close to all-time highs:

????這一趨勢既可以被解讀為好的跡象，也可以被看作一種令人擔憂的狀況。一方面，一家公司只應該在非常確定自己的股票有很大漲幅空間時回購股票，因為購買價格過高的股票可不是利用股東金錢的明智方式。但正如Behind the Numbers公司分析師比爾?貝克爾最近為客戶撰寫的報告所指出的那樣，歷史顯示高管和董事們往往會選擇最差的回購時機。他寫道：

????回購往往發生在經濟景氣，股價已經很高的時候。公司最終會以虛高的價格買回自己的股票，但鑒于越來越多的薪酬委員會在經濟景氣時分發這些紅利，所以這些股票有很大一部分最終只是被管理層贖回了。

????然而，美國公司似乎仍然計劃堅持回購策略。高盛公司證券策略師大衛?科斯滕表示，今年股票回購的價值還將增長18%，達到7000億美元以上。不過貝克爾認為，有理由相信2015年至少會有一些公司的美好回購計劃最終擱淺。

????貝克爾寫道：“坦白說，我們認為許多公司的現金流很快就將遭遇困境，這會讓他們擴大回購的舉動變得十分艱難。”

????他舉出了以下四家公司的例子，這些公司的大規模回購項目恐怕堅持不了多長時間了：

????1、思科系統：上個夏天，這家網絡設備制造商宣布了多年來的第四次裁員。公司表示將減少6,000個工作崗位，即員工總數的8%。這是自2011年以來公司結構調整的動作之一，而這項計劃光在2015年就將花費公司7億美元。

????貝克爾認為，由于結構調整導致的支出大部分都是耗費現金的遣散費，因此我們可以預計此舉將導致思科的現金告急。此外，重組過程中公司的表現也乏善可陳。思科的銷售額在2014年有所下滑，自2011年起利潤也在連年降低。

????但缺乏現金的思科并未停止回購股票。2014年的回購量是前一年的兩倍，而回購資金則完全來自新增債務。

????2、通用磨坊：盡管這家食品制造商由于銷售額的下降正在進行結構調整，但公司的股價卻在去年上漲了10%。

????股票回購讓該公司股價目前保持穩定，但隨著該公司在截止10月份的12個月內出現了12億美元的自由現金流赤字，他們恐怕不會有多少現金來繼續回購了。

????3、可口可樂：在當下這個含糖飲料需求日益降低的時代，這個軟飲料巨頭正努力尋找立足點。不過可口可樂在本周二發布的最新財報顯示，在連續四個季度收入下滑后，最近一個季度的銷售額終于有所提高。

????為了精簡產品線，以應對不斷變化的消費偏好，可口可樂在2012年和2014年宣布進行結構調整，這將花費該公司數億美元的現金。盡管存在著這些問題，這家公司去年依然設法讓股價上漲了11%，這主要是其股份回購計劃所致。在截止去年9月的12個月中，可口可樂購回了價值39億美元的股票。

????4、菲利普?莫里斯國際公司：自從2008年從奧馳亞集團拆分出來后，菲利普?莫里斯公司就在跨國業務的結構調整中花費了數百萬美元。近幾個月來，這部分開銷有了顯著提高，與此同時，該公司每年還要花上數十億美元來回購股票。為了進行回購，公司負債累累，而相當一部分購回的股票都轉化為了高管薪酬。

????當利率維持在歷史最低點，難以覓得投資機會時，你不能指望美國公司回避回購股票這一選擇。這種回饋股東的方式十分靈活，還能將每股收益保持在很高的水平。

????但正如貝克爾指出的，投資者應當留心那些過于依賴股權回購的公司，尤其是那些在業績每況愈下時依然這樣做的公司。像本文提及的這些公司正陷于銷售額下滑和債務增加的困境，投資者不能指望他們通過回購來長時間維持高股價。（財富中文網）

????譯者：嚴匡正

????審校：任文科

????You can view this trend as a good sign or a worrying one. On the one hand, companies should only buy their shares when they are confident that the stock has a lot of room to grow, as buying overpriced shares is a terrible use of shareholder money. But, as Will Becker, an analyst with Behind the Numbers, puts in his latest report to clients, history shows that executives and directors plan buybacks at the worst times. He writes:

????Buybacks are typically initiated in good times when stock prices are high…. Corporations end up purchasing their own stock at inflated prices, only to have many of these same shares then redeemed by management as compensation committees increasingly hand out these perks in good times.

????Nevertheless, it appears that Corporate America plans to stick to its buyback strategy. Goldman Sachs equity strategist David Kosten says that share repurchases will increase by 18% this year, to more than $700 billion. Becker, however, thinks there’s reason to believe that 2015, at least for some companies, might be the year the good ship buyback finally runs ashore.

????Writes Becker, “Frankly we believe free cash flow for many of these companies could soon encounter a number of headwinds, thereby making it more difficult for them to expand their buyback programs.”

????He cites four examples of companies that could soon run into trouble maintaining their significant buyback programs:

????1. Cisco Systems: Over the summer, the network equipment manufacturer announced it’s fourth round of layoffs in as many years, saying it will cut 6,000 jobs or 8% of its workforce. It’s all part of a restructuring the firm has undertaken since 2011, a plan that will cost the company $700 million this year alone.

????Becker argues that since the majority of the expenses related to the restructuring are cash-eating severance payments, we can expect Cisco’s cash pile to be drained by this process for some time to come. On top of that, the company’s performance amid its shakeup has been lackluster. Sales shrank in 2014, while its margins have been falling every year since 2011.

????Cisco is light on cash, but that hasn’t stopped it from repurchasing its own shares. Buybacks doubled in 2014, financed wholly by new debt offerings.

????2. General Mills: The food maker’s stock is up over 10% in the past year, despite the fact that it is undergoing its own restructuring amid declining sales.

????Stock buybacks have kept share prices steady for now, but with the company posting an adjusted free cash flow deficit of $1.2 billion in the 12 months ending in October, there’s not much cash lying around to keep up the practice.

????3. Coca-Cola: The soft drink giant has struggled to find its footing in an era of falling demand for sugary drinks. Though Coca-Cola posted rising sales in its most recent earnings statement on Tuesday, that comes after four quarters of falling revenue.

????To slim down and respond to changing consumer preferences, Coke announced restructuring initiatives in 2012 and 2014 that will cost the firm hundreds of millions of dollars in cash. It too has kept its stock price up more than 11% in the past year despite these problems, primarily a result of its share repurchase program. The company bought $3.9 billion worth of its own shares over the 12 months ending in September.

????4. Philip Morris International: Since being spun off by Altria in 2008, Philip Morris has incurred millions of dollars in restructuring costs in its international operations. These charges have increased significantly in recent months, at the same time that it has continued to buy back billions per year in its own stock. The company has taken on debt to facilitate its stock purchases, much of which has been transformed into executive compensation.

????While interest rates remain historically low and investment opportunities are scarce, you shouldn’t look for Corporate America to shy away from buying back its own stock. It is a more flexible way to return money to shareholders and it helps keep earnings per share high.

????But, as Becker points out, investors should be wary of firms that rely too much on share repurchases, especially ones who do so in the face of declining performance. Firms, like the ones mentioned above, experiencing declining sales and increasing debt can’t be counted on to prop up their share prices with buybacks for very long.