????上周，作為2015年第一家首發上市的熱門初創型科技企業，總部設在加州洛斯阿爾托斯的云存儲服務公司Box籌集了1.75億美元。盡管在損益表中披露了巨額虧損，Box仍受到了投資者熱捧。上市當天，該公司股價一度飆升76%。

????這是否預示著今年將迎來科技公司的IPO盛宴呢？過去幾年中出現了兩次歷史上規模最大的IPO——2012年Facebook上市，募集資金160億美元；2014年阿里巴巴上市，籌集了220億美元。市場依然樂此不疲。這種情況會延續下去嗎？答案是“也許”。按照觀察人士的預測（或者說期望），很快就會有一系列人們耳熟能詳的科技企業在美國證券交易所上市，為這些公司添磚加瓦的消費者將有機會變成股東。這些公司包括租車服務商Uber、租房網站Airbnb、云服務公司Dropbox、視覺創意平臺Pinterest和圖片及視頻共享網站Snapchat（請參見《財富》雜志首次推出的“獨角獸”公司（即估值超過10億美元）名單，每季度更新一次）。

????不過，這些初創型企業都有意盡可能地延長其私有狀態的時間。其中許多都曾被視為2014年的IPO大熱門。一年來，這些公司中的大多數都在私募市場籌集了數億美元，從而為自己爭取了更多時間，不必立刻面對上市后公眾挑剔的目光，以及股價的起起落落。Uber和Snapchat等少數幾家公司在2014年即將結束之際大舉融資，這降低了它們在2015年首發上市的可能性，甚至是必要性。

????以Uber為例。就像個人投資者非常愿意見到Uber首發一樣，該公司一向不服管束的首席執行官特拉維斯?卡蘭尼克可能非常不愿意這樣做。最新一輪融資過后，Uber的估價達到了410億美元——有人預計，如果今年上市，其價值將超過1000億美元。但該公司IPO的可能性看來不大。在許多城市，Uber的業務都遭遇了來自政府的威脅、訴訟和禁令，這必將延緩該公司的國際擴張速度。任何不利因素都會加劇上市公司股價的波動幅度；在和監管部門較量的過程中，Uber可能更愿意處于私有狀態。通過Uber為他人提供代步服務的車主總是招來很大非議，如果該公司上市，這也可能給它的股價帶來壓力。

????Airbnb在擴張過程中也遇到了類似問題。該公司的經營模式和現行法律以及酒店業的利益存在沖突。去年4月份，Airbnb籌集了4.75億美元，這讓它的私募融資總額達到了8億美元左右。這家租房網站最近的估值為130億美元，和Uber相比它更可能首發上市。但Airbnb也許能創造足夠的現金來保持私有狀態。

????以前，預測IPO的時間并不是難事。過去幾十年中曾有一項規定，要求股東人數超過500名的公司必須申請上市。2012年的《創業企業融資法案》把這一數字提高到了2000人，這讓公司有可能在更長時間里維持其私有狀態。谷歌和Facebook的上市并非發自內心，但“500名股東”的規定讓它們不得不這樣做。現在，私有公司可以有更多的股東，還可以在私募市場接觸到一些機構投資者——它們首發上市時這些機構投資者將率先出手。二、三線公司可沒有這樣的待遇。但這中間也蘊含著風險——實力較強、較受歡迎的企業最終上市后可能發現，投資者對它們的熱情已經消失。股市的表現可能也不會像近幾個月那樣強勁。

????2014年上市的科技公司有53家，但投資者朝思暮想的重量級企業只有寥寥數家，比如攝像設備廠商GoPro和P2P貸款平臺LendingClub。2015年，這種情況可能延續下去，出現在我們面前的可能仍是規模較小而且較不知名的公司。這不一定是壞事?？偟膩碚f，去年表現最好的首發新股中也包括首日上漲173%的軟件公司Zendesk和首日上漲197%的視頻廣告平臺TubeMogul。

????不過，如果想持有名氣最大、人們最期待的那些IPO公司的新股，特別是那些智能手機日常應用制造商的股份，大家可能還要再等一段時間。只要能保持私有狀態，它們可能就不會上市。考慮一下急著上市的Box和Dropbox。它們的在線存儲業務都展現出了很強的實力。去年1月份，Dropbox通過權益融資獲得了3.5億美元，幾個月后又借發債籌集了5億美元。這些資金可供它使用很長時間。即使不選擇上市，這也足夠該公司支撐下去。

????Box的情況和Dropbox不同。該公司去年7月份融資1.5億美元時的估值為24億美元，而且當時已經約定要在一年內上市。隨著IPO期限臨近，Box的估值似乎一度接近15億美元。該公司并沒有為避免IPO爭取時間，相反，它選擇上市的原因是因為公司面臨未來資金方面的壓力（目前其市值為27.7億美元）。

????其他私有科技公司的情況與之類似——有些公司的歷史跟消費互聯網本身一樣長。電子商務支付服務供應商First Data 1992年首發上市，今年該公司正在籌備再次上市。它于2007年私有化，并借此制造了歷史上規模最大的杠桿收購之一。受此次收購影響，First Data目前仍負債230億美元。該公司打算通過IPO來籌集資金，以減輕債務負擔。域名注冊公司GoDaddy可能更不對投資者的胃口。在前首席執行官鮑勃?帕森斯的管理下，這家公司以廣告缺乏品味著稱。盡管上市條款對新股東來說并不理想，然而，首發上市是GoDaddy良久以來的期盼。

????無論如何，初創型企業的CEO們都要考慮到這樣一些重大趨勢：今年晚些時候美國的利率可能開始上升，從而削弱對新股的需求；歐洲經濟存在不確定性，再加上油價暴跌的影響還沒有得到體現，股市可能出現更多的震蕩。另外，2014年最后幾周IPO申請陡然增多——但除了Box以外，一家明星科技企業都沒有。

????今年首發上市可能性最大的公司將是那些最缺錢的公司。至于其他企業？請勿凝神期許。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????審稿：李翔

????Box raised $175 million on Friday in the first initial public offering of 2015 by a hot technology startup. Despite significant losses on the business software company’s income statement, investors were happy to welcome it. Shares of the Los Altos, Calif. company BOX -2.71% surged as much as 76% on its first day of trading.

????Does this presage a blockbuster year for tech IPOs? In recent years investors saw two of the biggest IPOs ever: Facebook’s FB -0.43% $16 billion offering in 2012 and Alibaba’s BABA 0.85% $22 billion deal in 2014. The market has yet to lose major momentum. Will that continue?

????The answer is “maybe.” There are a number of household names in the tech industry that observers expect (or hope) to soon list on U.S. exchanges, allowing consumers to have a chance to own a piece of the companies they help support. Among them: Uber, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and Snapchat. (See each company’s valuation on Fortune‘s first-ever Unicorn List, updated quarterly.)

????But these startups have shown a willingness to stay private as long as possible. Many were thought to be prime IPO candidates in 2014. Most raised hundreds of millions of dollars in private markets this past year, buying them more time before they would have to face the public scrutiny and earnings circus that a public offering would entail. A few, such as Uber and Snapchat, raised huge rounds in the waning days of 2014, making a 2015 IPO less likely or even necessary.

????Take Uber, for example. As much as individual investors would love to see an Uber IPO, the transportation company’s regulation-averse CEO, Travis Kalanick, may not feel the same way. Uber’s recent investment round left the company valued at $41 billion, though some expect it could be worth more than $100 billion should it make an offering this year. But that prospect is looking unlikely.Uber’s international expansion is sure to face speed bumps as governments threaten, sue, or ban the service in many cities. Any setbacks can add volatility to public stocks; the company may prefer to remain private while it fights these regulatory battles. The ongoing, high-profile controversies involving Uber drivers could also weigh on the company’s shares in the public market.

????Airbnb is facing similar issues as it expands. Its business model clashes with current laws and the interests of the hotel industry. Airbnb raised $475 million in April, bringing its total private financing to about $800 million. The real estate rental company, recently valued at $13 billion, may be a more likely IPO candidate than Uber. But it could be generating enough cash to remain private.

????Timing IPOs used to be easier. For decades, there was a rule that companies with more than 500 shareholders had to file for a public offering. The JOBS Act of 2012 raised that figure to 2,000, giving companies the chance to stay private longer. Google and Facebook weren’t looking forward to going public at the time that they did, but the 500-shareholder rule forced their hands. Now companies can stay private with more shareholders and find access in private markets to the kinds of institutional investors who would be first in line during an IPO. Second and third-tier companies don’t have this luxury. But there’s a risk: Once the stronger, more sought-after names finally do go public, they could find that investors’ appetite for them has diminished. The stock market may also be less bullish than it’s been in recent months.

????Fifty-three tech companies went public in 2014, but only a few of the big names that investors pined for—GoPro GPRO -4.00% andLendingClub LC 4.77% among them— ended up listing their shares. We’re likely to see a continuation of the trend in 2015 with smaller, lesser-known enterprise technology companies. (Read: “Beyond Box: 10 big business-tech IPOs in the offing.”) This is not necessarily a bad thing. Some of the top-performing IPOs of last year in all industries were companies like Zendesk ZEN -5.63% , up 173% from its offering price, and TubeMogul TUBE -2.40% , up 197%.

????But if you’re looking to own a piece of best-known, most-desired IPO candidates—especially the ones you use daily on your smartphone—you may have to wait longer. The ones that can afford to stay private likely will.

????Consider the counterexamples of Box and Dropbox. Both make strong showings in the online storage business. Dropbox raised $350 million in an equity round last January and secured another $500 million in debt financing a few months later. The loans will give it a resource to draw on for a long time, leaving it plenty of gas in the tank should it choose to steer away from public markets.

????Box is a different story. The company raised $150 million last July at a valuation of $2.4 billion, with the stipulation that it would go public within a year. For a time, it looked as if Box would be worth closer to $1.5 billion as it neared its IPO deadline. Rather that buy time to avoid an IPO, Box faced pressure to go public for future capital. (Its market capitalization today is $2.77 billion.)

????It’s a similar story for other private tech companies—some that are as old as the consumer Web itself. First Data, an e-commerce payment processor that first went public in 1992, is staging another IPO this year. The company went private in 2007 in one of the biggest leveraged buyouts ever. It’s still holding $23 billion in debt from that deal and is looking to raise capital from an IPO to lighten its debt load. GoDaddy may be even less palatable. The domain-registration company—known for its tasteless commercialsunder former CEO Bob Parsons—has been itching for awhile to make a public offering, even though the terms may not be ideal for new shareholders.

????Whatever the case, there are important market trends for startup CEOs to consider. Interest rates in the U.S. could start to rise later in the year, dampening demand for new stocks. Economic uncertainty in Europe and Asia, coupled with the still-to-be-felt aftershocks of plummeting oil prices, could create more fluctuation in the stock market. And then there’s the fact that IPO filings surged in the final weeks of 2014—but aside from Box, there was nary a tech star among them.

????The surest IPOs this year will be the ones that need the capital most. And the rest? Well, don’t hold your breath.