????施羅德基金管理公司駐倫敦資深歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家阿扎德?桑加納表示，各家各戶很可能花掉大部分因油價(jià)下跌省下的錢，從而拉動(dòng)零售銷售。此外，仍存在大量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家所說(shuō)的“被抑制的需求”，因?yàn)橛?guó)的復(fù)蘇與美國(guó)一樣，未能使工資出現(xiàn)任何實(shí)質(zhì)性增長(zhǎng)，盡管經(jīng)濟(jì)已經(jīng)連續(xù)兩年增長(zhǎng)。上周公布的數(shù)據(jù)已經(jīng)顯示，零售銷售上升超出預(yù)期，油價(jià)暴跌的早期影響開(kāi)始顯現(xiàn)。

????對(duì)消費(fèi)者更利好的消息是，英國(guó)央行不大可能在經(jīng)濟(jì)顯現(xiàn)活力時(shí)加息。英國(guó)央行貨幣政策委員會(huì)最近一次會(huì)議的記錄顯示，鑒于歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)放緩，且快到年底時(shí)市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)性劇增，該委員會(huì)九名成員中，已有兩人放棄呼吁上調(diào)利率。此外，數(shù)據(jù)顯示，該行今年早些時(shí)候采取的防止房市過(guò)熱的措施，已取得預(yù)期效果。

????另一個(gè)問(wèn)題在于，黃金期能持續(xù)多久。英國(guó)將于五月進(jìn)行議會(huì)選舉，民意調(diào)查顯示，將再次出現(xiàn)英國(guó)兩大政黨都無(wú)法憑一己之力獲得多數(shù)席位的局面，其部分選票被另外兩個(gè)政治議程更激進(jìn)的政黨奪走。希望蘇格蘭脫離英國(guó)的蘇格蘭民族黨，已經(jīng)從偏左的工黨手中奪走不少選票。與此同時(shí)，希望英國(guó)脫離歐盟的英國(guó)獨(dú)立黨，也搶走了保守黨的大量選票。分析人士認(rèn)為，隨著選舉臨近，下屆政府組建過(guò)程中的政治不確定性，很可能打擊商業(yè)信心、抑制投資。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Hunter

????審稿：Sissi

????Azad Zangana, senior European economist with fund manager Schroders in London, said households are likely to spend most of any windfall they get from lower oil prices, boosting retail sales. There is still a high degree of what economists call “pent-up demand”, given that the U.K. recovery, like the U.S. one, has failed to deliver any meaningful rise in wages despite two consecutive years of growth. Figures released last week already showed retail sales rising ahead of expectations as the first effects of the oil price collapse were felt.

????The better news for consumers is that the Bank of England is unlikely to respond to any signs of animal spirits by raising interest rates. Minutes from the BoE’s latest Monetary Policy Council meeting showed that two of its nine members had backed down from their call for a rate hike, in response to the Eurozone slowdown and the sharp increase in market volatility toward the year-end. Moreover, data suggested that measures taken by the Bank earlier in the year to stop the housing market from overheating had had the desired effect.

????How long that sweet spot will last is another question. The U.K. is facing elections in May, and opinion polls suggest that, for the second time in a row, neither of the two main parties will be able to form a majority on their own, having lost ground to two different parties with more radical political agendas. The Scottish Nationalist Party, which wants Scotland to leave the U.K., has made huge inroads at the expense of the center-left Labour Party. At the same time, the U.K. Independence Party, which wants to take the U.K. out of the European Union, has lured away a large part of the Conservatives’ vote. Analysts say that political uncertainty over the course of the next government is almost certain to dint business confidence and investment as the election nears.