????希臘一邊倒的選舉結(jié)果，并未對(duì)市場(chǎng)的正常活動(dòng)造成太大影響。

????反緊縮政黨Syriza將掌權(quán)的消息一出，希臘股市應(yīng)聲下跌。不過，歐洲股市和歐元似乎沒怎么受到影響，盡管Syriza誓將對(duì)抗三巨頭——?dú)W盟委員會(huì)、國(guó)際貨幣基金組織和歐洲央行，迫使它們免除希臘的部分債務(wù)，并允許希臘出臺(tái)刺激性支出計(jì)劃以及其它改革措施。

????市場(chǎng)對(duì)上述消息未加理會(huì)，因?yàn)樗麄內(nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為，希臘退出歐元區(qū)的可能性極低。英國(guó)金融咨詢公司德維爾集團(tuán)國(guó)際投資戰(zhàn)略家湯姆?埃利奧特表示：“希臘新政府將發(fā)現(xiàn)，三巨頭計(jì)劃采取強(qiáng)硬態(tài)度。”埃利奧特稱，希臘幾乎沒什么資本與其債權(quán)人進(jìn)行談判。該國(guó)有一筆價(jià)值45億歐元的債務(wù)將于三月到期，在七月和八月，還將各有一筆數(shù)額相當(dāng)?shù)膫鶆?wù)到期，沒有歐洲的援助，希臘根本無力償還。希臘的債權(quán)人可能會(huì)愿意對(duì)上述債務(wù)進(jìn)行展期，或者降低利率，但三巨頭不會(huì)進(jìn)行債務(wù)豁免，因?yàn)樗麄儞?dān)心這會(huì)使得其他債務(wù)國(guó)有樣學(xué)樣，紛紛提出類似要求。

????希臘唯一的資本是威脅退出歐元區(qū)，此舉必將導(dǎo)致希臘出現(xiàn)銀行危機(jī)，并陷入嚴(yán)重經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，至少在短期內(nèi)是如此，而對(duì)歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)不會(huì)造成多大破壞。希臘新當(dāng)選的代表必然會(huì)因此遭到指責(zé)。民意調(diào)查表明，盡管希臘存在經(jīng)濟(jì)問題，大多數(shù)希臘人還是希望留在歐元區(qū)。

????但投資者是否有些一葉障目？確實(shí)，上周日的選舉可能不會(huì)立即導(dǎo)致歐元區(qū)解體。但不論是對(duì)歐元區(qū)這一貨幣聯(lián)盟，對(duì)歐元區(qū)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者重振歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)的計(jì)劃，還是對(duì)歐洲政治凝聚力而言，該選舉結(jié)果肯定不是個(gè)好兆頭。

????歐亞集團(tuán)總裁伊恩?布雷默表示：“Syriza取得了壓倒性的勝利，其優(yōu)勢(shì)之大，超出了所有人預(yù)料。而且此政黨反德反歐的立場(chǎng)極度鮮明，不光是在經(jīng)濟(jì)層面，在政治層面也是如此。”

????反歐盟情緒不僅存在于經(jīng)濟(jì)萎靡不振的希臘。在西班牙，反救市政黨Podemos也正贏得支持，而西班牙2015年年底的選舉將對(duì)歐元區(qū)未來產(chǎn)生巨大影響。與此同時(shí)，法國(guó)民調(diào)顯示，如果將定于2017年舉行的法國(guó)總統(tǒng)大選挪到現(xiàn)在舉行，極右翼疑歐派人士瑪麗?勒龐將贏得首輪選舉。即使在堅(jiān)決主張維持現(xiàn)狀的德國(guó)，也有名為“德國(guó)另類選擇黨”的反歐元政黨處于上升態(tài)勢(shì)，最近在州選舉中收獲頗豐。

????因此，盡管希臘的選舉結(jié)果可能不是歐元區(qū)突然解體的催化劑，但它們可被視為歐元區(qū)失敗的一系列例證之一。布雷默稱，上周日的選舉，是“歐洲治理分崩離析”的又一例證。

????唯有經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，才能促使歐盟更好地團(tuán)結(jié)起來，重新確立共同目標(biāo)。但即使在歐洲央行公布刺激措施后，歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)方面也沒有太多利好消息。歐盟預(yù)計(jì)，歐元區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)去年僅增長(zhǎng)了區(qū)區(qū)0.8％，今年將僅增長(zhǎng)1.1％。鑒于西班牙、希臘、葡萄牙等國(guó)失業(yè)率高企，且銀行系統(tǒng)仍然資本不足，未來幾個(gè)月歐洲經(jīng)濟(jì)明顯改善的希望不大，因此主流政黨民調(diào)支持率停止下降的機(jī)會(huì)也不大。

????市場(chǎng)目前可能對(duì)此不以為意，其部分原因在于歐洲央行上周宣布了大規(guī)模債券購(gòu)買計(jì)劃。但與一周前相比，如今歐盟的遠(yuǎn)景看起來黯淡了一些。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Hunter

????審稿：李翔

????Markets are taking the landslide election in Greece more or less in stride.

????Greek stocks fell on the news that the anti-austerity Syriza party will take power. But European stocks and the Euro seemed to be largely unaffected by the news, despite the fact that Syriza vows to fight the Troika of the European Commission, the IMF, and the European Central bank and force them to forgive some Greek debt and allow the country to enact a program of stimulus spending, among other reforms.

????Markets are shrugging off the news because they still view the chances of Greece leaving the Euro as remote. “The new government will find that the Troika plans to play hardball,” says Tom Elliott, International Investment Strategist at deVere Group. Elliott argues that Greece has little leverage in its negotiations with its debt holders. It has a €4.5 billion bond maturing in March and two similarly large payments due in July and August, which it won’t be able to pay without aid from Europe. While its debt holders might be willing to extend the maturity on these debts or lower interest rates, the Troika won’t budge on debt forgiveness out of fear that it would encourage other debtor nations to ask for similar concessions.

????The only leverage Greece has is to threaten to exit the euro, an act that would surely cause a banking crisis and a severe recession—at least in the short term—in Greece without doing much broader damage to the eurozone economy. The newly elected representatives in Greece will surely be blamed for such a fiasco. Polls indicate that despite Greece’s economic troubles, a majority of citizens want to remain in the euro.

????But are investors here missing the forest for the trees? Sure, Sunday’s election might not be the cause of the immediate dissolution of the eurozone. But it certainly isn’t a good sign for the currency union and its leaders’ plan for reviving the European economy, or for European political cohesion.

????“This was a huge landslide, a larger win than pretty much anybody expected,” says Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group. “And this party has taken one of the most directly anti-German, anti-European positions you could take, not just economically but politically.”

????The anti-EU sentiment isn’t just a product of the depression-like conditions that Greek citizens have been enduring. In Spain, where elections at the end of 2015 will have huge implications for the future of the Eurozone, another anti-bailout party, Podemos, has been gaining support. Meanwhile, in France, polls indicate that the far-right eurosceptic Marie La Pen would win the first round of the 2017 French Presidential elections if they were held today. Even Germany, the stalwart of the status-quo, has an ascendent anti-euro party, called Alternatives for Germany, which recently won big gains in state elections.

????So, while Greece’s election results will not likely to be a catalyst for a sudden break up of the Euro, they can be viewed as yet another in a series of events that suggest that the union is failing. Sunday’s elections offered another example of the “disintegration and fragmentation of Europe as an effective source of government,” Bremmer says.

????The one thing that could jolt the EU back toward greater unity and a renewed sense of common purpose is economic growth. But even in the wake of the announcement of stimulus measures from the ECB, there isn’t a great deal of good economic news to report in Europe. The European Union estimates that the eurozone economy expanded at a measly 0.8% last year and will only grow by just 1.1% this year. With widespread unemployment in countries like Spain, Greece, and Portugal, and a banking system that remains undercapitalized, there’s little reason to believe that the European economy is going to improve enough in the coming months such that mainstream parties can stem their losses at the polls.

????Markets might be taking it easy for now, soothed by the massive bond-buying program the ECB announced last week. But the long-term picture for the European project looks a little worse today than it did a week ago.