????過去幾個月，中國官方媒體一直大肆報道中國的“新常態”，并透露政府可能將2015年的GDP增長目標定為7％。新華社20日撰文稱：“中國的超高速增長期已經過去，我們得接受這一點。”

????早在2014年伊始，中國就在淡化自身增長潛力。2014年早些時候，李克強總理宣布，中國經濟增長目標為7.5％，僅一天后，財政部長樓繼偉就表示，增長7.2％就很好了。

????以花長春為首的野村證券香港分析師團隊，詳細說明了中國經濟增長繼續放緩可能會帶來的局面。可以說是“塞翁失馬，焉知非福”。

????花長春寫道：“鑒于地方政府債務控制收緊、房地產市場調整以及去杠桿化等深層次的國內挑戰……，經濟將持續下滑。對于2015年，我們維持GDP增長6.8％的預測。”

????中國宣布的國有企業、影子銀行以及地方政府債務等多項改革，會導致增長放緩，但它們有助于經濟健康發展。目前，中國公共債務占GDP的比重高達250％，已令國民經濟幾乎難以支撐。

????澳新銀行的劉利剛表示，中國服務業在2014年的表現，是此次公布的GDP數據中的一大亮點。服務業對GDP增長的貢獻率為3.8個百分點，而制造業的貢獻率為3個百分點。劉利剛稱：“過去四年，盡管中國經濟增長放緩，但新增就業崗位數量卻在逐年增長，原因便在于服務業的發展。”相比自動化的工廠，服務業雇傭的人更多。

????同時，盡管中國經濟增長速度在全球各大經濟體中仍然遙遙領先，但其對石油、鐵礦石和銅等大宗商品的消耗量卻未同比例增長，出現這一現象的原因亦是因為服務業。隨著市場意識到中國對大宗商品的需求增長被嚴重高估，過去半年，上述商品的價格直線下跌。

????如今的GDP增長放緩，同去年三季度時一樣明顯。當時，中國季度經濟增長創下5年來的新低，消息一出，中國股市應聲下跌。然而，同樣是面對經濟增長放緩的消息，本月20日中國股市反而上漲了2％，這暗示投資者或許已經習慣中國經濟增長放緩。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Hunter

????審稿：李翔

????For the past couple of months, China’s state-run press has been relentlessly running stories about China’s “new normal” and telegraphing the government’s likely reduction in the 2015 GDP target to 7% growth. “The country’s period of miraculous break-neck growth is over, but let’ s get over it,” state-run Xinhua wrote today.

????Even in the beginning of 2014, China was downplaying its growth potential. Only a day after Premier Li Keqiang announced China’s growth target of 7.5% earlier last year, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei undercut him and said 7.2% growth would be just fine.

????Nomura analysts led by Chang Chun Hua in Hong Kong spell out the likely scenario by which China’s growth continues slowing. It shouldn’t be completely unwelcome.

????“The economy will resume its downtrend … given deep-rooted domestic challenges such as tighter controls over local government debt, the property market correction and deleveraging,” Hua writes. “For 2015, we maintain our GDP growth forecast of 6.8%.”

????China’s announced reforms for state-run enterprises, shadow banking, and local government debt should reduce growth but contribute to a healthier economy which is struggling under a public-debt-to-GDP ratio of 250%.

????ANZ’s Liu says China’s service sector’s performance in 2014 is an important takeaway from the GDP announcements. The contribution from services to GDP growth was 3.8 percentage points vs. manufacturing’s 3 percentage points. He says, “This also explains, despite China’s slowing growth over the past four years, the new jobs created are growing year by year.” Services employ more people than do automated factories.

????It also explains why a growth rate that is still by far the fastest of any large economy in the world isn’t translating one-for-one into consumption of commodities such as oil, iron ore and copper, prices for which have tumbled in the last six months as markets wake up to how much they have overestimated the profile of Chinese demand growth.

????Today’s GDP growth slowdown was just as apparent in the third quarter, when China’s quarterly growth hit a five-year low. Back then Chinese stocks fell on the news. In a hint that investors may be getting used to a slowing China, stocks in Shanghai rose by 2% today.