????這是充滿希望的春天，也是令人絕望的寒冬……

????對專業投資者而言，2014年最令人沮喪的一點是，美國經濟復蘇時斷時續。2014年1月，經濟領域捷報頻傳。然而，在短短幾周內，一場暴風雪席卷全美，各種經濟數據似乎也因此停擺。

????市場觀察人士被迫接受一季度美國GDP負增長2.9％這一現實。突然間，同波詭云譎的現實相比，所有人的預測似乎都過于樂觀，至少是過于平穩。這導致人們紛紛猜測美聯儲最終退出其債券購買計劃的時機。短短幾周內，我們從信心滿滿變成了垂頭喪氣，同時，伴隨著不確定性的再次來襲，資產類別的交替以及市場調整也隨之而來。

????盡管每輪市場反彈最終都呈V形，每次連續的漲勢中，個股的參與越來越少。今年春夏兩季的絕大部分時間里，時事分析評論員們都專注于贏家與輸家、大盤股和小盤股之間的明顯差異。歐洲的通縮擔憂以及日本的技術性衰退，使得分析師們愈加困惑，盡管美國經濟正在好轉，美國國庫券收益率和通脹指標卻雙雙下行。

????簡言之，2014年種種相反的趨勢無法描述和解釋。我也不信，多年之后，人們憑借后見之明，能將今年發生的種種事情看得更清楚。

????我們的前路應有盡有，我們的前路一無所有……

????在即將結束的2014年，標普500指數再次實現亮眼增長，而那些本欲跑贏該指數的基金經理們，表現則沒那么出色。Lipper公司稱，截止11月底，85％的活躍股票型共同基金經理業績低于標普500指數。而在正常的年份里，跑贏該指數的基金經理比例是今年的兩倍，也就是說，通常只有約三分之二的基金表現不如標普500指數。Lipper公司稱，這是30年來活躍基金經理相對大盤表現最差的一年。

????今年選股遇到困難，部分原因在于市場頂部高度集中。蘋果、伯克希爾?哈撒韋、強生、微軟和英特爾這五只股票占去了市場漲幅的20％。如果你未持有上述股票，幾乎就沒有機會分享這場增長盛宴，而正是這幾家公司的增長推高了標普500指數。市場上大部分股票的表現要遜色得多。研究公司路佛集團稱，標普1500綜合指數成分股中，僅有30％的個股跑贏了該指數。上次出現這樣的景象，那還是1999年的事。

????在令人失望的2014年里，基金投資者們沒有太多的動作。總體而言，過去11個月中，主動選股基金僅新增了350億美元資金，還不到2013年同期新增資金（1620億美元）的四分之一。2013年是該行業自2007年以來首次實現資金凈流入。不過，這并不是說基金行業毫無作為。截止感恩節，交易所交易基金（ETFs）和被動指數型基金吸納了2060多億美元凈存款，行業領先者先鋒集團管理的基金規模在今年夏末突破了3萬億美元大關。投資者們似乎已經決定，與其把寶押在“騎手”身上，不如直接把賭注押在“賽馬”身上。

????我們都將直上天堂，我們都將直下地獄

????萎靡不振的不光是那些挑選個股的基金。截止12月1日，對沖基金整體回報嚴重落后于市場。彭博收集的數據顯示，對沖基金平均同比上漲了2％，其回報率也就勉強趕上無風險10年期美國國債的票面利率。2014年將有1000多只基金倒閉，是自2009年以來破產清算最多的一年。

????幾家大型對沖基金的資產規模，占據了該行業的大半江山。各家的回報率相差巨大。每個像威廉?阿克曼旗下潘興廣場那樣的大贏家，都對應著一個像約翰?保爾森旗下優勢基金那樣的大輸家。投資者選擇對沖基金，是沖著其“非相關收益”，意即與大盤走向背道而行的趨勢。今年，他們絕對是獲得了“逆市”的收益，可惜是在大盤表現出色的情況下“逆市”。

????那些原本希望今年憑借戰術策略獲得些利益的財務顧問和資產配置人員，也在反復無常的市場中栽了跟頭。全美前三位的戰術策略產品中，有兩款產品幾乎因為高達兩位數的虧損而崩盤，還有一款產品則因為向公眾誤報自身歷史回報率而受到美國證交會調查。另一家戰術產品巨頭嘉信理財旗下90億美元的Windhaven Diversified Growth產品，2014年的回報率幾乎為零。戰術策略原來不過如此。

????簡言之，那個時代與當今時代極為相似，一些最嘩眾取寵的權威人士，要么將其捧上天，要么把其貶得一文不值。

????狄更斯在《雙城記》中描寫法國大革命時，距離事件發生已有近一個世紀。而我則是在今年12月就回顧盤點這一年。因此，我在此描述的某些趨勢，可能將在可預見的未來繼續存在，而另一些趨勢則可能已經開始減弱。作為當今時代“最嘩眾取寵的權威人士”之一，我只要求各位在閱讀這篇評論文章時記住一點：過去的業績并不能保證將來的表現。

????各位，我們明年見。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Hunter

????審稿：李翔

????It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…

????One of the most discouraging aspects of 2014 for professional investors has been the start-and-stop nature of the recovery. We coasted into January on a trend of strengthening economic reports. Within a few weeks, a nationwide snowstorm seemingly drove the economic data off the side of the road.

????Market watchers were forced to digest the reality of negative 2.9% GDP for the first quarter of the year. All of a sudden, everyone’s forecasts seemed too rosy—or at least too smooth—compared to the lumpy reality. This led to a raft of second-guessing on the timing of the Fed’s eventual exit from its bond-buying stimulus program. We went from confidence to WTF? in a space of a few weeks, with all the asset class rotations and market corrections that come along with a fresh bout of uncertainty.

????Despite the fact that each market rebound ended up as a V-shaped affair, each successive rally was carried out with less and less individual stock participation. Glaring divergences between winners and losers, large caps and small caps, preoccupied the commentariat for most of the spring and summer. Deflationary concerns from Europe and the Japanese technical recession further confounded analysts, as Treasury yields and inflation indicators in the U.S. were driven lower despite the improving domestic economy.

????Put succinctly, there was no way to describe or explain the crosscurrents of 2014. And I’m not convinced that the benefit of hindsight will make what happened this year any clearer years from now.

????We had everything before us, we had nothing before us…

????While the S&P 500 is on track to conclude another stellar year of gains, those who sought to beat the index are poised to finish with a more dubious distinction. According to Lipper, 85% of all active stock mutual fund managers had been trailing their benchmarks through the end of November. In a typical year, there are nearly twice as many managers outperforming, with only around two thirds of funds struggling to catch up. Lipper says this is the worst year for active managers relative to the market in three decades.

????Stock pickers encountered difficulty this year in part because of concentration at the top of the market. Just five stocks—Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Johnson & Johnson, Microsoft, and Intel— accounted for 20% of the market’s gains. If you weren’t at least equally weighted toward them, you had virtually no shot at making up for missing their enormous, index-driving gains. A majority of the market’s stocks did not perform nearly as well. According to the Leuthold Group, only 30% of S&P 1500 stocks posted gains exceeding the index itself. You’d have to go back to 1999 to see anything like this.

????Fund shareholders weren’t wasting any time reacting to this year of disappointment. Collectively, they’ve added just $35 billion to active stock-picking funds in the last 11 months, less than a quarter of the $162 billion they added in 2013, which was the first year of positive flows for the industry since 2007. This is not to say that they were sitting still. ETFs and passive index funds took in over $206 billion in net deposits through Thanksgiving, and Vanguard surpassed the $3 trillion mark sometime in late summer. Investors seem to have decided that they’d rather bet on the horses than the jockeys, after all.

????We were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way

????The malaise was not confined to those picking individual stock winners. Through December 1, aggregate hedge fund returns trailed the market to the point of farce. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, hedge funds were up an average of 2% on the year, just barely offering the coupon rate of a risk-free 10-year Treasury note. Over 1,000 funds are on track to close down in 2014, the worst year for liquidations since 2009.

????Among the gargantuan hedge funds that make up a majority of the industry’s assets under management, dispersion of returns shot up to notable levels. And for every big winner, like William Ackman’s Pershing Square, there was a big loser to counterbalance it, like John Paulson’s Advantage Fund. Investors choose hedge funds for their “non-correlated returns,” meaning a tendency to move opposite from the general market’s direction. They certainly got such returns this year, unfortunately.

????Financial advisors and asset allocators who had been hoping to see some benefit this year from tactical strategies were also not spared the punishment of a capricious market. Of the top three tactical strategies in the country (Mainstay Marketfield, Good Harbor U.S. Tactical Core, F-Squared Premium AlphaSector Index), two had nearly imploded with double-digit losses while the third found itself under SEC investigation for misleading the public about its historical returns. The other giant tactical manager, Schwab’s $9 billion Windhaven Diversified Growth product, looks to end 2014 with a return close to zero. So much for tactics.

????In short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.

????When Dickens wrote about the French Revolution in A Tale of Two Cities, he did it with nearly a century of hindsight. Here, at the end of December, I don’t enjoy that luxury. As such, some of the trends I’ve written here are likely to remain in force for the foreseeable future, while others may have already begun to fade. As one of this period’s “noisiest authorities,” I insist only on your receiving this review with just one caveat in mind: Past performance does not guarantee future results.

????I’ll see you next year.