????盡管近來貨幣刺激政策有所升溫，但日本經(jīng)濟(jì)還是連續(xù)第二個季度出現(xiàn)萎縮，再度陷入衰退。

????上述消息令日本政府意外受創(chuàng)，促使現(xiàn)任首相安倍晉三要求在下月提前選舉。這可能破壞安倍晉三振興日本經(jīng)濟(jì)的計劃，即英文媒體所說的“安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)”。正如我的同事杰夫?史密斯所言，安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)包括短期財政刺激、央行持續(xù)購買債券、商業(yè)管制放松，以幫助日本經(jīng)濟(jì)實現(xiàn)增長，隨后是數(shù)次上調(diào)銷售稅，以幫助削減巨額政府債務(wù)。目前，日本政府債務(wù)為該國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值（GDP）的238％，在發(fā)達(dá)國家中名列前茅。

????如今，安倍晉三放棄了于明年十月再次上調(diào)日本銷售稅的計劃，不過，他希望保住使他能大膽果斷進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的三分之二多數(shù)聯(lián)盟。但在目睹日本經(jīng)濟(jì)今年的表現(xiàn)后，還有理由相信上述改革嗎？

????全球經(jīng)濟(jì)研究機構(gòu)High Frequency Economics首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家卡爾?溫伯格認(rèn)為，答案是否定的。他聲稱，日本經(jīng)濟(jì)處于蕭條期，其主要原因是該國人口正迅速萎縮。政府資金都被用于照顧老人，無力推出能幫助經(jīng)濟(jì)擺脫蕭條的有力刺激計劃。為了說明安倍經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)毫無用處，溫伯格給出了下圖，并解釋稱：

????Despite a recent ramp up of monetary stimulus, the Japanese economy shrank again for the second straight quarter, and it is now back in recession.

????The news blindsided the Japanese political establishment and motivated current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to call a snap election for next month, which could put in jeopardy his plan to revitalize the nation’s economy, dubbed “Abenomics” by the English-speaking media. As my colleague Geoff Smith has explained, Abenomics involves a short burst of fiscal stimulus, sustained central bank bond-buying, and business deregulation to help Japan’s economy grow, followed by several rounds of sales tax increases to help cut down massive government debt, which currently sits at 238% of GDP—by far the highest ratio in the developed world.

????Abe has now backed off his plans to raise Japan’s sales tax again next October, though he is hoping to hold onto the two-thirds majority coalition that has enabled him to act boldly and decisively in his economic reforms. But is there any reason to be confident in these reforms after the performance of Japan’s economy this year?

????Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, says no. He argues that Japan is in a depression, driven primarily by its quickly shrinking population. Government funds are tied up taking care of the the nation’s elderly, and there’s no room for serious stimulus to drag it out of this slump. To illustrate the fultility of Abenomics, Weinberg provides the following chart, and an explanation: