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中國降息,國際股市攀升

中國降息,國際股市攀升

Geoffrey Smith 2014-11-25
中國經(jīng)濟(jì)增速降至五年最低,政府出臺新政支持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長

????上周五,中國央行兩年來首次下調(diào)官方利率,這一意外舉措令國際股市與大宗商品市場大幅走高。

????繼一連串令人失望的經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),以及地方銀根趨緊跡象之后,中國人民銀行出手降息,這是政府當(dāng)局?jǐn)?shù)月以來扶持經(jīng)濟(jì)力度最強(qiáng)的一次。

????中國經(jīng)濟(jì)正在以2009年以來最低的速率增長,雖然政府當(dāng)局努力表現(xiàn)得對此并不緊張,但現(xiàn)在有最新調(diào)查數(shù)據(jù)顯示,國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)停滯,主要制造業(yè)用工全面縮減。

????中國人民銀行的這一舉措與全球范圍內(nèi)央行放松銀根的趨勢不謀而合,旨在抵御日益增長的通縮威脅。同時,也與美聯(lián)儲正準(zhǔn)備出臺的緊縮政策背向而馳——美國在經(jīng)歷了為期六年的“緊急狀態(tài)”貨幣政策后迎來了逐漸強(qiáng)勢的經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇。

????中國人民銀行將一年期存款利率調(diào)低0.25個百分點(diǎn)至2.75%,一年期貸款利率調(diào)低0.4個百分點(diǎn)至5.6%。

????人民銀行的降息公告于中國金融市場收盤之后發(fā)布,但歐洲股市聽聞此消息后立即大幅上漲,原油等商品價格也聞風(fēng)而動。紐約商品期貨交易所石油基準(zhǔn)合約價格每桶飆升1.50美元,漲幅為2.5%,達(dá)兩周內(nèi)最高水平。在歐洲,德國DAX指數(shù)上漲2%,英國富時100指數(shù)(FTSE 100)上漲1%。

????歐洲市場的攀升也源自于歐洲央行(ECB)行長馬里奧?德拉吉(Mario Draghi)的一篇措辭強(qiáng)烈的演講。他在發(fā)言中承諾,將采取有力措施保證歐元區(qū)不會陷入通縮陷阱。

????由于與存款利率上限、法定存款準(zhǔn)備金率等其他管理工具的相互影響,官方利率在中國經(jīng)濟(jì)中起到的作用與西方國家不完全相同。并且,中國資本管控將國內(nèi)貨幣市場與境外相隔離。因此,相較于其他國家的類似措施(例如美聯(lián)儲于2008經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)前夕所出臺的),中國降息政策刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的作用較為有限。

????有趣的是,人民銀行同時也放寬了對銀行存款利率浮動區(qū)間的限制,將銀行存款利率浮動區(qū)間的上限由存款基準(zhǔn)利率的1.1倍調(diào)整為1.2倍。根據(jù)期限不同,利率可在0.35%至4%區(qū)間內(nèi)浮動。人民銀行對國內(nèi)銀行系統(tǒng)實施嚴(yán)格的75%貸存比要求。

????綜上所述,此次出臺的措施似乎旨在為面臨諸多挑戰(zhàn)的銀行系統(tǒng)提供流動性支持。中國銀行業(yè)的不良貸款激增,尤其是對房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)商和建筑公司的貸款。此外,銀行也在尋求機(jī)會來自行籌資,以積累資金,滿足客戶認(rèn)購股票的相關(guān)需求。

????上周五早些時候,人民銀行已經(jīng)通過其官方微博發(fā)布聲明,稱流動性“充裕”,以令市場各方放心。據(jù)《華爾街日報》報道,中國七天基準(zhǔn)銀行同業(yè)拆息已升至3.48%,升幅高達(dá)0.20%。(財富中文網(wǎng))

????譯者:Joe

????China’s central bank cut its official interest rates for the first time in two years Friday, in a surprise move that sent international stock and commodity markets sharply higher.

????The action by the People’s Bank of China, which comes in response to a string of disappointing economic data and increasing signs of tension in local money markets, is the authorities’ strongest show of support in months.

????The economy is currently growing at its slowest rate since 2009, and while Beijing has tried to appear relaxed about that, surveys are now showing output stagnating and jobs being shed across the key manufacturing sector.

????The PBoC’s action also adds to the trend of central banks across the world easing monetary policy to fight off a growing threat of deflation–a trend that goes in the opposite direction to the U.S., where the Federal Reserve is preparing to tighten policy as the economic recovery gains traction after six years of emergency measures.

????The PBoC cut its one-year deposit rate by 0.25 percentage points to 2.75% and the one-year lending rate by 0.40 percentage points to 5.6%.

????It timed its announcement to come after the close of financial markets in China, but European stock markets surged on the news, as did prices for commodities such as crude oil. The benchmark contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by $1.50 a barrel, or 2.5%, to its highest level in two weeks, while in Europe, the German DAX index soared 2% and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 rose 1.0%.

????European markets were also buoyed by a strongly-worded speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi promising aggressive action to ensure the Eurozone doesn’t fall into deflation.

????Official interest rates don’t have quite the same function in China’s economy as they do in western ones, due to their interplay with other tools, such as caps on deposit rates and statutory reserve requirements. And the market for money is in any case effectively sealed off from the rest of the world by China’s capital controls. As such, they may not have the same kind of stimulating effect that a similar move by, for example, the Federal Reserve (in the days before the 2008 crisis).

????Interestingly, the PBoC also relaxed its control of the amount that banks can offer for deposits. They can now offer 1.2 times the benchmark rate, rather than 1.1 times. These range from 0.35% to 4% depending on maturity. The PBoC enforces a strict cap of 75% on loan-to-deposit ratios in the banking system.

????Taken together, the measures look designed to support liquidity into a banking system that is facing challenges on a number of fronts. The sector is seeing a sharp rise in bad loans, especially to real estate developers and construction companies, which is hitting revenue. In addition, banks are also looking to raise capital themselves and amass cash to service clients’ demands for other stock offerings that are due next week in China.

????Earlier Friday, the PBoC had felt the need to issue a statement via its account on the Chinese Twitter-equivalent Weibo reassuring market participants that liquidity was “ample”. Benchmark one-week interbank rates had risen by an alarming 0.2o percentage point to 3.48% earlier, according to the Wall Street Journal.

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