????周三，美聯(lián)儲（Federal Reserve）發(fā)布聲明，宣布將結(jié)束其持續(xù)多年的債券購買計(jì)劃。這項(xiàng)旨在刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)的舉措給經(jīng)濟(jì)和金融市場帶來了一系列影響，引發(fā)無數(shù)爭論，現(xiàn)在終于即將畫上句號。

????隨著市場狀況不斷改善，對持續(xù)低通脹的擔(dān)憂減弱，失業(yè)率也在以穩(wěn)定地速度下降，美聯(lián)儲最終決定結(jié)束第三輪購買抵押貸款和財政部擔(dān)保債券。自2008年啟動量化寬松策略以來，美聯(lián)儲的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表至今已膨脹至4.48萬億美元。

????與此同時，美聯(lián)儲計(jì)劃繼續(xù)持有其證券，并將所持到期證券的本金重新投資于自己的機(jī)構(gòu)擔(dān)保證券，同時會在拍賣時對到期的國庫債券進(jìn)行展期。顯然，通過持有債券余額，美聯(lián)儲希望能夠“在經(jīng)濟(jì)中保持具有適應(yīng)性的金融市場狀況”，而無需進(jìn)行新的購債安排。

????這份聲明是由美聯(lián)儲的政策制定機(jī)構(gòu)——公開市場委員會（Open Market Committee）在結(jié)束為期兩天的會議后所發(fā)布。很多分析師都希望能從中挖掘線索，推斷美聯(lián)儲將在何時開始加息。委員會繼續(xù)將聯(lián)邦基金利率的目標(biāo)范圍設(shè)立在0%至0.25%之間，這意味著目前整體經(jīng)濟(jì)內(nèi)的利率仍將保持在一貫的低水平位置。

????在聲明中，美聯(lián)儲對經(jīng)濟(jì)前景十分樂觀，表示自9月份的聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會會議以來，“就業(yè)市場狀況已得到進(jìn)一步改善，崗位增長穩(wěn)定，失業(yè)率下降。”

????聲明指出，“總體來說，一系列的就業(yè)市場指標(biāo)顯示，勞動力資源利用不充分的情況正在逐漸消失。”

????對于經(jīng)濟(jì)增長是否歸功于美聯(lián)儲的量化寬松計(jì)劃，目前仍存在爭議。自量寬啟動以來，失業(yè)率已經(jīng)從2009年10月份（購債計(jì)劃開始的一年后）10%的高位下降至上個月的5.9%。與此同時，根據(jù)國際貨幣基金組織（International Monetary Fund）的數(shù)據(jù)，今年美國國內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值預(yù)計(jì)將增長2.8%，遠(yuǎn)超2008年0.3%的負(fù)增長。

????“從投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)的角度來看，沒有量寬比繼續(xù)量寬更好，雖然短期來說會造成一定的波動性。”嘉信理財（Charles Schwab）的首席投資策略利茲?安?松德斯表示，“至少，我們可以考察經(jīng)濟(jì)能否在自身引擎的驅(qū)動下運(yùn)作，股市的表現(xiàn)也將與營收的表現(xiàn)更為貼近，而不是被量寬牽著鼻子走。”

????松德斯認(rèn)為，和第一輪及第二輪量化寬松所不同，第三輪量寬令市場信心面臨考驗(yàn)。

????由于規(guī)模空前的資產(chǎn)購買計(jì)劃，美聯(lián)儲的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表不斷膨脹。“資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模越大，退出就越發(fā)困難。”她解釋道。

????美聯(lián)儲目前還無需面臨退出投資的后果，并且表示至少在委員會開始再次加息之前，不會調(diào)整其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。即便如此，在第三輪量寬之后，市場難免波動，情況會和前兩次計(jì)劃結(jié)束時一樣。

????The Federal Reserve will bring to an end its long-running bond purchase program, according to a statement released Wednesday, concluding a stimulus exercise that has attracted intense debate as to its impact on the economy and the financial markets.

????Improving market conditions, including diminished fears of persistently low inflation and a steadily descending jobless rate, led the Fed to make the call to put an end to its third round of purchases of mortgage- and treasury-backed bonds. To date, the Fed has amassed a balance sheet of $4.48 trillion since it started its quantitative easing strategy in November 2008.

????The Fed plans to hold onto its securities and will reinvest principal payments from its holdings into its own agency-backed securities and will roll over maturing Treasury securities at auction. It is hoping that by holding its bond balance, it will “help maintain accommodative financial conditions” in the economy without needing to continue with new purchases.

????The Fed’s policy-setting Open Market Committee made the statement at the end of its two-day meeting Wednesday. Many analysts were hoping for further insight into when the Fed may start boosting interest rates. The committee stands by its 0% to 0.25% target range for the federal-funds rate, which means that interest rates across the broader economy will remain at their consistently low levels for now.

????In its statement, the Fed was remarkably upbeat about the economy’s prospects, saying that since the Federal Open Market Committee last met in September, “l(fā)abor market conditions have “improved somewhat further, with solid job gains and a lower unemployment rate.”

????“On balance, a range of labor market indicators suggests that underutilization of labor resources is gradually diminishing,” the statement said.

????Whether or not the economy’s gains can be attributed to the Fed’s quantitative easing program is a matter of debate. Since its inception, the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.9% last month from a high of 10% in October 2009, a year after the bond-buying began. Meanwhile, U.S. gross domestic product is expected to pick up to 2.8% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, compared to 0.3% decline in 2008.

????“We’re better off from an investment and economic perspective without QE than if it had continued, even if there is short-term volatility,” said Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab. “We can at least see if the economy can operate under its own engine power, and we will probably see the stock market behave more in-line with earnings rather than gyrating around QE.”

????Sonders said that unlike the first and second rounds of quantitative easing, the third round put downward pressure on confidence.

????“The bigger the balance sheet, the harder to exit,” she said, referring to the growth in the Fed’s balance sheet due to its unprecedented asset-purchase program.

????The Fed still doesn’t have to face the prospect of exiting its investments just yet, and has said it won’t change its balance sheet until at least the committee begins raising interest rates again. Even so, there may be some volatility in the markets following the end of QE3, much like after the end of the first two programs.