????商業(yè)研究機構(gòu)世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會（Conference Board）周一發(fā)布報告預(yù)計，今后6年中國經(jīng)濟將在“軟滑坡”過程中不斷減速。如果中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人未能采取行動落實商業(yè)友好改革措施，到2020年中國的經(jīng)濟增速或?qū)⑾禄?%。

????一直以來，中國官方預(yù)測經(jīng)濟增速將下滑到8%左右，并稱之為“軟著陸”。但世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會在上述報告中指出，今后中國的經(jīng)濟形勢會遠不如夕，尤其是如果政府無法通過一些緊迫手段重塑經(jīng)濟。

????報告的合著者、該聯(lián)合會中國經(jīng)濟和商業(yè)中心（China Center for Economics and Business）董事總經(jīng)理大衛(wèi)?霍夫曼稱：“中國在過去15年來獲得的巨大成功是基于歷史上很獨特的一種發(fā)展模式。但這種發(fā)展方式的特點是由政府著力指揮資本流向，貨幣政策旨在促增長，但這同時帶來了深層次的風險和失衡問題。在中國的經(jīng)濟增長過程中，總是潛藏著減速的可能性，而且減速過程至少會和加速過程一樣快。我們發(fā)現(xiàn)，現(xiàn)在已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)這種轉(zhuǎn)變的跡象了。”

????增速下滑可能影響本已疲弱的經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇過程。但報告指出，在華經(jīng)營的跨國公司將因此受益。經(jīng)濟放緩時期這些跨國公司將有更多的人才可以挑選，而且中國領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人可能對在華經(jīng)營的外國公司持更加開放的態(tài)度。由此可能出現(xiàn)更多收購中國公司的機會，這對打算進一步在華投資的跨國企業(yè)而言是個福音。

????這份報告預(yù)測中國經(jīng)濟增速將迅速從諸多政府官員的預(yù)期水平下滑，但更為緩慢的增長不會扭轉(zhuǎn)中國經(jīng)濟的前進勢頭。經(jīng)濟減速并不意味著危機，報告的另一位合著者、該聯(lián)合會經(jīng)濟學家安德魯?波爾克認為，4%的增長率“仍代表著巨大的機遇。”

????他也同時指出：“但是，中國已經(jīng)到了一個十字路口。政府以及外國投資者都必須承認是時候進行結(jié)構(gòu)性經(jīng)濟調(diào)整了。在政府主導(dǎo)和信貸推動之下，中國經(jīng)濟實現(xiàn)了舉世矚目的成就，現(xiàn)在要轉(zhuǎn)向更可持續(xù)并以消費為中心的增長模式，這將是一個長期而危險的過程，近期會帶來許多陣痛。”

????在2011年之前的30年中，中國的年均經(jīng)濟增速為10.2%。二戰(zhàn)之后中國的經(jīng)濟增速無可匹敵，這也使中國成為國際社會中的重要一員。最近，中國的年均增長速度開始放慢，今年政府設(shè)定的增長目標為7.5%。

????其他經(jīng)濟監(jiān)管機構(gòu)也預(yù)計中國經(jīng)濟將減速，只是幅度要小得多。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）預(yù)測，在2016年的某個時刻，中國經(jīng)濟增長率會降至6.5%。世界銀行（World Bank）則預(yù)計，2016年中國經(jīng)濟增速將下滑到7.1%。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????China’s economic growth is expected to continually decline over the next six years in a “soft fall” to an annual rate of 4% by 2020 — at least if the nation’s leaders fail to take action to implement business-friendly reforms, according to a report by the Conference Board.

????Chinese officials have been forecasting a drop in economic growth to about 8% per year in what they labeled a “soft landing.” A report released Monday by business-research group the Conference Board, however, says the future economic picture is much more muted, especially if leaders don’t pass stringent measures to remake the economy.

????“China’s remarkable success, over the last 15 years, in particular, was built on a historically unique development model,” said David Hoffman, a co-author of the report and the managing director of the Conference Board China Center for Economics and Business. “But the hallmarks of this approach — substantial state direction of capital and growth-fixated monetary policy — also generated deep-seated risks and imbalances. The course of China’s growth has always harbored the potential for deceleration at least as rapid as its acceleration. We are beginning to see the signs of this transformation take hold.”

????The drop in growth would hinder an already fragile recovery, though such a steep decline would be a boon to multinational firms doing business in the country. Slow growth would provide a better pool of workers from which to hire the most talented employees, and Chinese leaders would be more open to foreign businesses operating locally, according to the report. That could open up more opportunities to acquire Chinese companies, a benefit for multinationals looking to invest further in the country.

????While China’s growth is expected to rapidly decline from what many officials have predicted, the slower growth won’t reverse the generation of progress. The slowdown doesn’t imply a crisis: 4% growth “still represents a huge and dynamic opportunity,” said Andrew Polk, a Conference Board economist who co-authored the report.

????“But China stands at a crossroads: The government and foreign investors alike must be honest in acknowledging the time has come for structural economic adjustment,” he said. “Transitioning away from the state-driven, credit-fueled boom that has amazed the world, toward a more sustainable, consumption-centric model will be a long and perilous process that causes much near-term pain.”

????Over 30 years through 2011, China posted an average annual growth rate of 10.2%. That growth rate was unmatched by any nation in the post-World War II era and helped transform the country into a major world player. China’s annual growth has recently slowed and the country is aiming for a 7.5% growth target this year.

????Other economic watchdogs also expect the Chinese economy to slow down, albeit at a much more modest pace. The International Monetary Fund anticipated China’s growth will hit 6.5% sometime in 2016. The World Bank expects China’s growth to slow to 7.1% in 2016.