????別看了，美元正在高歌猛進。我的同事杰弗里?史密斯的觀點如下：

????“美元指數(U.S. Dollar Index)衡量美元兌六種主要西方貨幣的走勢，但不涉及人民幣等新興市場貨幣。第三季度該指數上漲了7.1%，是2008年市場出現恐慌行情以來增長最快的一個季度……作為主要國際儲備貨幣，美元兌巴西雷亞爾和墨西哥比索創下了7個月新高，兌印度盧比也接近6個月來的最高點。在主要貿易伙伴國貨幣中，唯一沒有對美元貶值的是人民幣，部分原因是中國工業部門對大宗商品（以美元計價）的需求下降。”

????沒錯，盡管近年來許多人都警告說美聯儲（Fed）的政策正在摧毀美元的價值，但美元匯率卻達到了金融危機以來的最高點。正如史密斯指出的那樣，美元飆升的短期原因很明顯，那就是美聯儲開始壓縮債券購買規模，而日本央行則繼續將儲備資金注入該國銀行體系，同時歐洲也在考慮啟動歐洲版量化寬松政策。但除此以外，經濟基本面也是美元走強的原因。同時，有理由相信這些趨勢可能有利于全球經濟。

????那么，除了刺激性措施的作用，美元兌其他貨幣的匯率為什么會上揚呢？最合理的解釋是美國和世界其他地區的經濟增長率存在差異。三年來，歐元區18國的經濟基本處于停滯狀態。最新數據表明，作為歐元區經濟兩大傳統動力的德國和法國今年二季度不是萎縮就是持平。過去五年中，日本實際GDP增長率超過2%的時間只有四分之一。與之相比，上一季度美國4.2%的經濟增長率就顯得強勁得多。

????標準經濟理論認為，投資者會轉移到增長較快的經濟體。要做到這一點，他們就得購買這個經濟體的貨幣。就目前的全球局勢而言，這就意味著美元需求量將上升，因為投資者需要買入美元，以便投資于相對強勢的美國經濟。

????那出口呢？有人認為，世界就要陷入一系列貨幣戰爭，原因是各國央行都在壓低本國貨幣的價值，目的是讓出口產品變得更便宜，同時提振國內經濟。這種觀點的邏輯基礎是央行不會降低刺激性政策力度。但至少就美國來說，允許量化寬松推動低迷的日本和歐洲經濟實現增長顯然會讓美國經濟受益，盡管這樣做意味著美元匯率將上升。宏觀研究機構Renaissance Macro Research經濟研究主管尼爾?杜塔在本周寫給客戶的報告中指出：“雖然美元升值讓進口價格壓力處于低點，而且有損出口競爭力，但美國是一個相當封閉的經濟體。或者說，美元波動對進口價格和出口活動的影響相當小。全球經濟增長和出口之間的彈性遠遠超過美元（的相對價值）。”

????換句話說，和有利的匯率環境相比，日本和歐洲經濟快速增長對美國出口商以及整個美國經濟更為有利。

????鑒于其他發達國家面臨著和美國一樣的障礙，比如人口老齡化、貧富差距加大以及工資停止增長，幾乎沒有理由不相信美國的經濟增長速度將繼續超過前者。這個因素正在推升美元，再加上其他國家和地區剛剛開始實施貨幣性刺激措施，今后幾年美元可能繼續處于王者地位。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????Don’t look now, but the U.S. dollar is on a tear. Here’s my colleague Geoffrey Smith with the details:

????“The U.S. Dollar Index, which measures the buck against six major western currencies but not against emerging market currencies such as China’s yuan, has risen 7.1% in the third quarter, its biggest quarterly rise since the 2008 market panic . . . the world’s premier reserve currency is also at seven-month highs against Brazil’s real and Mexico’s peso, and near a six-month high against India’s rupee. The only major trading partner it isn’t strengthening against is the yuan, partly because of weaker demand for commodities (which are priced in dollars) from a slowing Chinese industrials sector.”

????That’s right, despite the manywarnings in recent years that Fed policies are destroying the value of the dollar, the greenback hasn’t been stronger since the financial crisis. As Smith points out, the short-term reasons for the dollar’s surge is clear: the Federal Reserve is winding down its bond buying program while Japan is still pumping reserves into its banking system and Europe is considering a quantitative easing program of its own. But beyond these, there are fundamental economic reasons for the dollar’s rise, as well as reasons to believe that these trends could bode well for the global economy.

????So why, beyond stimulus measures, is the dollar gaining value against foreign currencies? The best explanation is the difference in growth rates between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Growth in the 18-member eurozone has basically been stagnant for three years now, with the most recent readings showing that the usual engines of its economy, Germany and France, shrank or stalled in the second quarter of 2014. Japan, meanwhile, has only had one quarter of real GDP growth above 2% in the past five years, which makes the U.S. economy’s latest quarterly growth reading of 4.2% look a lot better.

????Standard economic theory says that investors will flock to economies that are growing faster, and to do that, they need to buy the currency of that economy. In today’s world, that means the dollar will be in greater demand because investors will need to buy dollars to invest into the relatively strong American economy.

????But what about exports? The logic of the argument that the world is descending into a series of currency wars–whereby central banks around the world are devaluing their currency in order to make their exports cheaper and boost their domestic economies–depends on central banks not letting up on stimulus. But at least in the case of the U.S., it’s clear that the American economy would benefit from allowing QE programs to help boost the sluggish Japanese and European economies to grow, even if it means a stronger dollar. As Neil Dutta, head of Economics for Renaissance Macro Research, wrote in a note to clients this week, “While a rising dollar keeps import price pressures low and hurts export competitiveness, the US is a fairly closed economy. That is, dollar movements have a fairly small impact on import prices and export activity.” He goes on to write, “There is a much more elastic relationship between global growth and exports than the [the relative value of] the dollar.”

????In other words, It’s better for U.S. exporters, and the broader U.S. economy, that Japan and the EU are growing quickly than to have a favorable exchange rate situation.

????And with the rest of the developed world facing the same hurdles as the U.S. in terms of aging populations, growing inequality, and stagnant wage growth, there’s little reason to believe that the U.S. won’t continue to outpace the rate of growth of the rest of the developed world. With that tailwind at the dollars back, and monetary stimulus just now getting underway in other parts of the world, we could see King Dollar reigning for years to come.