????在輸家排行榜上，排在前兩位的是阿里巴巴大股東雅虎（Yahoo）和阿里巴巴公司自己。雅虎拿出了大約1.40億股。由于定價偏低，它只得到了92億美元，而短短一天后這些股票的價值就達(dá)到了131億，或者說雅虎錯失了38億美元的收益。對阿里巴巴本身來說，公司以自有股份籌集來的資金約為83億美元，可謂賺的盆滿缽滿。但如果按每股93.89美元的價格計算，融資額將超過115億美元。這就意味著阿里巴巴給了別人32億美元的“小費(fèi)”，超過自身市值的1%。

????現(xiàn)在，讓我們從投資角度來看下阿里巴巴，個人投資者是眾多沒有拿到“內(nèi)部價”的草根階層——換句話說，就是你和我。我們希望今后十年阿里巴巴每年能帶來至少10%的回報。鑒于這只股票的投機(jī)屬性，這個數(shù)字相當(dāng)保守。讓我同時假設(shè)，為了擴(kuò)張阿里巴巴將增發(fā)30%。這個數(shù)字可能也偏低，因為阿里巴巴最近一直在大肆收購——僅今年1-3月份它就斥資70億美元收購和投資了一大批公司。

????阿里巴巴可能不會很快分紅。因此我們的收益只能靠股價上漲來實現(xiàn)。按照上述假設(shè)，到2024年阿里巴巴的市值需從2310億美元提高到7770億。要知道，現(xiàn)在地球上市值超過6000億美元的企業(yè)只有一家，那就是蘋果公司（Apple）。

????要達(dá)到這樣的市值，阿里巴巴需要實現(xiàn)多少盈利呢？在截至今年6月30日的第四個財務(wù)季度，阿里巴巴的凈利潤為49億美元。如果今后十年它的市盈率從47倍降到20倍（20倍市盈率仍有溢價），該公司就得實現(xiàn)390億美元的凈利潤，也就是說每年的凈利潤增長率都要遠(yuǎn)高于20%。除了美國政府旗下的房利美（Fannie Mae）和房地美（Freddie Mac），盈利增速達(dá)到這種水平的超級明星企業(yè)也只有一家：還是蘋果公司（Apple）。為了說明這個挑戰(zhàn)的艱巨性，大家可以看看這個數(shù)字——2013年，微軟（Microsoft）的利潤為220億美元。

????實際情況仍可能表明，阿里巴巴是一家偉大的公司，但它仍可能無法實現(xiàn)這么高的目標(biāo)。對于高增長企業(yè)來說，47倍的市盈率聽上去并不離譜。但要知道，阿里巴巴的規(guī)模已經(jīng)非常大，按利潤水平計算，它已經(jīng)能進(jìn)入《財富》美國500強(qiáng)的前50名。因此，該公司必須像一個超負(fù)荷的暴發(fā)戶一樣讓已經(jīng)頗為巨大的利潤繼續(xù)快速增長。這種逆天的成功案例有悖大數(shù)定律。實際上，目前的股價讓阿里巴巴更像一個可供傳聞的故事，而不是實實在在的投資對象。所以，大家最好置身事外，繼續(xù)觀賞這出好戲。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????Heading the list of losers are Yahoo, a major Alibaba shareholder, and Alibaba itself. Yahoo is selling around 140 million shares. The underpricing means it will receive $9.2 billion, instead of the $13.1 billion those shares would be worth, just one day later. That’s $3.8 billion in foregone funds. As for Alibaba, it’s raising around $8.3 billion, funds that will swell its coffers. At a $93.89 share price, Alibaba would have amassed over $11.5 billion. Left on the table: $3.2 billion, more than 1% of its market cap.

????Now, let’s look at Alibaba as an investment for the great unwashed who didn’t get the insider price; in other words, you and me. We’d want a return on our Alibaba shares of at least 10% a year over the next 10 years. That’s quite a conservative figure considering that Alibaba is a speculative investment. Let’s also assume that Alibaba will issue 30% more shares to fund its expansion. We’re probably choosing a low figure here given its recent acquisitions binge: Alibaba spent $7 billion buying and investing in a sprawling portfolio of companies just in the quarter that ended on March 31.

????It’s unlikely that Alibaba will pay a dividend anytime soon. So all of our gains will need to come in the form of stock appreciation. Using those metrics, Alibaba will need to grow its market cap from $231 billion to $777 billion by 2024. Keep in mind that the market currently awards only one company on the planet a valuation over $600 billion, and that’s Apple.

????To get us there, how much will Alibaba need to earn? In the four quarters ended June 30, Alibaba posted net earnings of $4.9 billion. If its P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple of 47 falls to 20 over those 10 years—and 20 is still a premium P/E—it will need to show $39 billion in net earnings. That means earnings must grow by well over 20% a year. Other than government-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, only one superstar makes that kind of money: once again, it’s Apple. To put this challenge in perspective, consider that Microsoft earned $22 billion in 2013.

????Alibaba could still prove to be a great company and still not achieve that gargantuan goal. Its P/E of 47 doesn’t sound outrageous for a fast-grower. But keep in mind that Alibaba is already a massive company with earnings that would put it in the top 50 of the Fortune 500. So it has to grow those already large earnings like a super-charged upstart. The law of large numbers is working against this remarkable success story. Indeed, at these prices, it’s more a story than an investment. So stay entertained, and stay away.