????從技術(shù)角度講，這趟旅程還遠(yuǎn)未結(jié)束。計(jì)算機(jī)已經(jīng)從由人操控變?yōu)樗杏?jì)算機(jī)和互聯(lián)網(wǎng)云端相連，也就是所謂的“物聯(lián)網(wǎng)”，就連最悲觀的行業(yè)分析師也必須承認(rèn)，這樣的轉(zhuǎn)變?cè)杏姸嘈聶C(jī)遇。Dropcam、GoPro和Nest的發(fā)展只是冰山一角，但從中可以看到將來(lái)的趨勢(shì)。

????當(dāng)然，最強(qiáng)大的業(yè)界成員絕不會(huì)停滯不前。

????早期風(fēng)投已經(jīng)意識(shí)到需要利用這種趨勢(shì)，這就是為什么許多傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)投公司在核心基金之外還設(shè)立了“機(jī)會(huì)型基金”，其作用就是要更多地抓住私募市場(chǎng)（即上市前市場(chǎng)）的價(jià)值。對(duì)于有限合伙人來(lái)說(shuō)，機(jī)會(huì)型基金通常是更加經(jīng)濟(jì)的投資對(duì)象。

????傳統(tǒng)風(fēng)投業(yè)并沒(méi)有遭受滅頂之災(zāi)——它得到了補(bǔ)充。

????許多知名有限合伙人也已經(jīng)看到了“既定比例機(jī)遇”，并成立“直接投資實(shí)體”，以便更迅速地獲得已經(jīng)納入其經(jīng)理人投資組合的公司既定比例的股份。這種趨勢(shì)預(yù)計(jì)將持續(xù)下去。不過(guò)，價(jià)值從公募市場(chǎng)轉(zhuǎn)向私募市場(chǎng)所引發(fā)的最強(qiáng)烈反應(yīng)是把公募市場(chǎng)投資者推向私募市場(chǎng)。上市公司的技術(shù)投資者在后期融資階段造成了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，如果愿意，這些投資者可以變得對(duì)價(jià)格不那么敏感。

????在私募市場(chǎng)獲取的價(jià)值還讓一些對(duì)沖基金和其他大型非私募市場(chǎng)投資者參與到后期風(fēng)投中。其中有許多機(jī)構(gòu)都缺乏技能、專注力、經(jīng)驗(yàn)和氣質(zhì)，無(wú)法成為優(yōu)秀而有耐心的私募市場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)期投資者。試圖在風(fēng)投市場(chǎng)套用對(duì)沖基金思維無(wú)法讓人預(yù)見(jiàn)到什么好結(jié)果。馬克?安德烈森的文章《毀掉高增長(zhǎng)科技初創(chuàng)公司的十種方法》（10 Ways to Damage Your High-Growth Tech Startup）最近在Twitter上引發(fā)激烈探討，其中就談到了一些這樣的問(wèn)題。

????From a technology perspective, our journey is nowhere near over. Even the most somber of industry analysts must acknowledge that the shift from computers as devices controlled by humans to smart devices that are all computers connected to an Internet cloud — the so-called “Internet of Things” — is breeding massive new opportunities. Just see the growth of Dropcam, GoPro and Nest for the tip of the iceberg in what is to come.

????Of course, the strongest industry players don’t stand still.

????Early-stage VCs have realized that they need to capitalize on this trend, which is why many traditional VCs have set up “opportunity” funds that sit alongside their core funds as a means of capturing more private-market (pre IPO) value. Opportunity funds typically have better economics for the LPs who invest in them.

????Traditional VC isn’t being gutted — it’s being supplemented.

????Many prominent LPs have also recognized the “pro rata opportunity” and have set up “direct investment vehicles” themselves to take pro rata stakes in their managers portfolio companies. Expect this trend to continue. The biggest response to the public-turned-private value capture, however, has been the push for public market investors to move into the private sphere. Public-company tech investors creates competition in late-stage financings and these investors can afford to be less price sensitive if they choose.

????The value capture in the private markets has also led some hedge funds and other major non-private-market investors to become late-stage VCs. Many of these investors lack the skills, focus, experience and temperament to make great, patient, long-term, private-market investors. Trying to shoe-horn a hedge-fund mentality into venture capital markets cannot portend a happy outcome. Marc Andreessen captured some of this sentiment in his recent “10 Ways to Damage Your High-Growth Tech Startup” Tweetstorm.

????當(dāng)科技市場(chǎng)不可避免地進(jìn)入下一個(gè)下行周期后，所有公募市場(chǎng)投資者都將重新?lián)炱鹱约旱娜粘９ぷ鳎⑶曳艞壷亟ê椭亟M剩下的那些資本過(guò)剩公司這項(xiàng)艱難任務(wù)。互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫破裂后我們?cè)?jīng)見(jiàn)識(shí)了這樣的場(chǎng)面，而這次的結(jié)果也不會(huì)有什么不同。公募投資者把許多頭寸出售給了二級(jí)市場(chǎng)投資者。如果某位同行并不真的打算解決問(wèn)題，就很難和他們一起確定相應(yīng)的股權(quán)結(jié)構(gòu)。

????為什么風(fēng)投公司會(huì)堅(jiān)守崗位并在金融市場(chǎng)經(jīng)歷巨變時(shí)去解決問(wèn)題呢？因?yàn)檫@就是它們的工作。如果我們想在雨過(guò)天晴之后和所有的風(fēng)投界同行以及企業(yè)家共事，我們的聲譽(yù)就極為重要。盡管我們有時(shí)候會(huì)激烈競(jìng)爭(zhēng)，但這種合作則互利的“博弈理論”將迫使風(fēng)投行業(yè)展露更好的行為。

????在份額固定的權(quán)益持有者、公司投資者和公募市場(chǎng)新生力量帶來(lái)的市場(chǎng)新趨勢(shì)作用下，后期融資的價(jià)值陡然上升。對(duì)一個(gè)行業(yè)中的頂尖企業(yè)來(lái)說(shuō)這或許不算什么，但隨著人們競(jìng)相參與他們所認(rèn)為的絕佳融資活動(dòng)，“頂尖”的定義顯然會(huì)變得牽強(qiáng)起來(lái)。

????When the tech markets goes through their next inevitable bear cycle, every public market investor will return to their day jobs and abandon the hard work of rebuilding and restructuring the remaining over-capitalized companies. We saw this movie already after the dotcom collapse and the sequel will be no different. Publics sold many of their positions to secondary investors. It’s hard to work out the cap table with your peers when one of them has no real intent in fixing the problem.

????Why do VCs stick around and fix problems in a massively changing financial market? Because this is all VCs do, and if we intend to work with all of our fellow VCs and entrepreneurs when the rain ends and the sun shines again, our reputations matter greatly. This “game theory” of mutual interests in collaboration — even as we occasionally compete fiercely — is what forces better behavior in our industry than otherwise might exist.

????The result of these new market trends of pro rata takers, corporate investors and public market entrants has led to a sharp spike in the valuations of late-stage financings. While this might not matter for the industry’s best companies, the definition of what is “best” will clearly be stretched as people compete to get in on perceived great deals.