????但我們還不知道，如果缺少拉爾夫，這家公司會陷入什么樣的狀態。我們理解為什么這家公司不太可能公開討論繼任者問題。很少有公司這樣做。但我們不一定要知道這項計劃的內容，我們只需要知道公司存在這樣的計劃。在我們看來，這就是拉爾夫?勞倫公司的不確定之處。

????身為首席執行官，拉爾夫?勞倫不可能在每次董事會議開始時都說：“大家討論一下我的繼任者問題吧。”此外，與其他雙層股權結構公司中的標志性大股東——比如逐步優雅地淡出耐克（Nike）的菲爾?奈特——不同的是，拉爾夫對產品設計和品牌戰略方向仍然發揮著至關重要的作用。

????因此，一方面我們當然希望他繼續擔任CEO；而另一方面，我們需要在某種程度上相信，即使有一天拉爾夫?勞倫離開了，這家公司也不會亂套。

????問題：所以向拉爾夫提出的問題是，他是否已經授權董事會在外部尋找下一任首席執行官，還是會從內部選出接班人？如果是后一種情況，拉爾夫是否會選擇大衛?勞倫（營銷執行副總裁）作為其繼任者？向彼得森、首席運營官內梅羅夫、法拉和“董事長辦公室”其他成員提出的問題是，他們是否相信確實存在繼任計劃？這似乎是個偽命題，但鑒于這家公司的權益價值為130億美元，而且有一位投票權超過60％的股東，所以我們必須清楚地了解這個問題。

關于手頭現金的堆壘

????目前，拉爾夫?勞倫公司手中的現金規模前所未有，不巧的是，現在是20年來收購機會最少的時候。具體來說，在今后5年中，這家公司的經營活動應該會產生近70億美元的現金，而維持性資本支出可能為17.5億美元，分紅可能需要8.5億美元，還有10億美元用于股票回購，以抵消期權的攤薄影響——共計36億美元左右。這樣，還剩下34億美元現金（而且它手頭已經有了5億美元凈現金）。

????問題：你會不會督促董事會（或者說拉爾夫）大力加強股票回購力度？這樣做的回報將超過持有越來越多的現金。但真正的問題是，有多少可供投資的高回報資本項目能讓你通過運用這些資金來提高收入增長率和/或利潤率？

????關于周期性利潤率風險的附加問題（我們充分意識到，現在已經遠遠超過了假設的五分鐘時間限制）

????你們約40%的現金流來自美國的百貨公司業務。雖然這遠低于零售業務產生的現金流，而且國際銷售也處于起步階段，但這仍是一個大問題。雖然在所有大品牌中，貴公司的不動產和在百貨公司領域的定位很可能具有最強的防御能力，但依然存在這樣一個事實，那就是百貨公司業務的整體利潤率剛剛度過了上升周期的第五個年頭，現在的利潤率正處于最高點；而且正如大家所想到的那樣，此前還沒有哪個利潤率上升周期能延續五年以上的時間。

????問題：如果我們發現貴公司美國批發渠道的利潤率回落，你覺得導致它下降的宏觀因素是否也會影響你們的零售業務？你認為在整個行業的利潤率出現滑坡的情況下，你們是否還能保持利潤率水平？需要通過哪些手段來幫助你們實現這個目標？（財富中文網）

????作者是金融研究機構Hedgeye Risk Management董事總經理兼零售行業負責人。

????譯者：Lina

????But what we don't know is what the company will look like in a Ralph-less state. We understand why the company is unlikely to openly discuss succession. Few companies do. But we don't necessarily need to know its plan -- we just need to know that it has one. That's where we're unsure about Ralph Lauren.

????We can't imagine that the CEO starts off every board meeting saying, "Let's talk about who's going to take my job." Also, unlike other iconic majority holders in a dual-class structure company -- like Phil Knight at Nike (NKE), who exited gradually and gracefully -- Ralph remains critical to product design and the strategic direction of the brand.

????So on one hand, we absolutely want him to remain in his current role. But on the other, we need to gain some confidence that the company will not miss a beat in the event that we wake up one day and Ralph Lauren is no longer a part of the company he built.

????Question: So the question for Ralph is whether he has given the board a mandate to go external for the next CEO, or if it will come from within? If the latter, will Ralph hand the keys over to David Lauren (EVP marketing) as his legacy? The question for Peterson, Nemerov, Farrah and the rest of the "Office of the Chairman" is whether or not they have confidence that a succession plan actually exists? This seems like a bogus question, but it's one we need to be crystal clear on for a company with $13 billion in equity value and has one holder who accounts for over 60% of the voting power.

On your pile of cash

????Ralph Lauren today has never had this much cash before, which happens to come at a time when there are fewer acquisition opportunities than at any time in the past 20 years. Specifically, over the next five years, the company should generate nearly $7 billion in cash from operations, and maintenance capex of maybe $1.75 billion. Tack on another $850 million in dividends, another $1 billion in stock repurchases to offset the dilutive impact of options. That's about $3.6 billion, and leaves an extra $3.4 billion in cash -- on top of the $500 million in net cash you already have.

????Question: Will you push for the board (i.e. Ralph) to meaningfully step up stock repo activity? You'll get paid more for that than for building a war chest of cash. But the real question is how many high-return capital projects can you invest in to deploy that capital in a way that will accelerate top line growth and/or margin improvement?

????Bonus question on cyclical margin risk (knowing full well that we're already well over our theoretical 5-minute time limit)

????About 40% of your cash flow comes from U.S. department stores. While that is down materially from retail and international sales were both in their infancy, it's still a big pill to swallow. Your real estate and positioning within department stores is probably the most defendable of any major brand. But one fact remains -- the department store group as a whole just completed year five of a margin expansion cycle and is now sitting at peak margins. There has never been a margin expansion cycle that's lasted longer than ... you guessed it ... five years.

????Question: If we see margins correct in your U.S. wholesale channel, do you think that the macro factors causing the decline would also hit your retail business? Do you think you can sustain margin even in the event of a broader industry margin correction? What levers do you have to pull to help you deliver?

????Brian McGough is Managing Director and Retail Sector Head at Hedgeye Risk Management.