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伯克希爾股東大會知道這6件事就夠了

伯克希爾股東大會知道這6件事就夠了

Stephen Gandel 2014-05-07
巴菲特在股東大會上回答了外界提出的許多問題,但他對這6個問題的看法和立場最值得投資者和普通大眾關注。

????沃倫?巴菲特上周六在伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司(Berkshire Hathaway)的股東大會上回答了投資者、記者和分析師提出的問題,而且破天荒地邀請了一位投資者登臺——受邀者是看空伯克希爾股票的道格?凱斯(巴菲特在回答凱斯的問題時說:“你還沒有說服我們拋售自己的股票,但繼續努力吧。”)聽眾的問題很多,從美國面臨的挑戰到美聯儲(Fed)的經濟刺激政策,再到內衣(內衣制造商Fruit of the Loom是伯克希爾的子公司),無所不包。下面是我們在本次大會上了解到的信息:

????1)巴菲特說,美國經濟面臨的最大威脅是不斷上升的醫療成本。美國經濟的17.5%都用在了醫療保健方面,而在其他國家,這個數字只有8%。巴菲特說這是一個重大的競爭劣勢。

????2)美國公司的利潤可能已經見頂,至少它占經濟的百分比可能已經達到了高點。巴菲特說美國企業的復蘇令人贊嘆,但失業率仍然居高不下。他還說,自己認為二元對立仍將是“公眾議題”。他預計美國GDP將實現增長。所以并不全是壞消息。

????3)巴菲特還沒有去考察比特幣(Bitcoin)交易機構Mt. Gox。他說自己對比特幣了解不多——這種虛擬貨幣最近成了非常熱門的話題。巴菲特的合伙人查理?蒙格說,他不相信比特幣會真正成為一種有意義的貨幣。巴菲特說,他認為今后許多年內美元仍將是全球通用貨幣,甚至可能永遠如此,“我們的490億美元資產中,還沒有任何一部分進入比特幣領域。”

????4)巴菲特不擔心再次出現金融危機,但蒙格也許有這樣的顧慮。巴菲特說,他不擔心銀行制造出新的泡沫,或者經濟泡沫破裂。他還說,自己并未計劃拋售任何大型銀行的股票,比如富國銀行(Wells Fargo)、美國合眾銀行(U.S. Bancorp)和M&T Bancorp。但巴菲特確實提到,《多德-弗蘭克法案》(Dodd-Frank Act)和其他新法規已經削弱了銀行創造回報的能力。

????但蒙格表示,他覺得應該進一步限制大型銀行。比如,他認為金融衍生產品市場已經變得過于龐大,應該和傳統銀行業務劃分開來,“大型銀行的財務報表很難理解。”

????5)巴菲特不得不繼續為自己在報社的投資進行辯護。他首次表示,收購小型報社給他帶來了稅收方面的好處。

????6)巴菲特依然看好美國。他說:“我相信,如今在美國出生的人在一生中獲得的機遇要好于以往任何時候。”(財富中文網)

????譯者:Charlie

????At Berkshire Hathaway's (BRKA) annual meeting on Saturday, Warren Buffett fielded questions from investors, journalists, analysts and, for the first time, invited onto the stage one investor, Doug Kass, who is betting against Berkshire's stocks. ("You haven't convinced us yet to sell our stock, but keep working," said Buffett in response to one question.) The questions ranged from those about the challenges facing America, the Fed's stimulus efforts and underwear (Berkshire owns Fruit of the Loom). Here's what we learned:

????1) The biggest threat facing the U.S. economy is rising health care costs, says Buffett. The U.S. economy spends 17.5 cents of every dollar on health care, compared to 8 cents in other countries. Buffett said that's a major competitive disadvantage.

????2) Corporate profits may have peaked, at least as a percentage of the economy. Buffett says corporations have made an amazing recovery, but he notes that the unemployment rateremains high. He said he thought that dichotomy would remain a topic of "public discourse." But he

????3) Buffett hasn't been to Mt. Gox. He says doesn't know much about Bitcoin, the virtual currency that has been gotten a lot of buzz lately. Buffett's partner Charlie Munger said that he has no confidence that Bitcoin will become a viable meaningful currency. Buffett said he thinks the dollar will remain the world's default currency for years to come, perhaps forever. "Of our $49 billion, we haven't moved any of it into Bitcoins," says Buffett.

????4) Buffett isn't worried about another financial crisis, but Munger may be. Buffett says he doesn't worry about banks creating the next bubble or bust. And he says he has no plans to sell the shares he has in any of the big banks, including Wells Fargo (WFC), U.S. Bancorp (USB), and M&T Bancorp (MTB). But Buffett does say that Dodd-Frank and other new regulations have lowered the returns banks can generate.

????Munger, though, says he thinks more should be done to rein in the big banks. For one, he thinks the market for financial derivatives has gotten too big and should be separated from traditional banks. "The financial statements of big banks are hard to understand," says Munger.

????5) Buffett still has to defend his investment in newspapers. For the first time, Buffett says he's getting a tax benefit from buying small newspapers.

????6) Buffett is still bullish on America. "I believe a baby born in America today will have better opportunities in life than ever before," says Buffett.

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