????中國經濟眼下還沒有從鋼絲繩上摔下來。

????周三公布的數據顯示，中國2014年第一季度經濟增速為7.4％，低于上個季度的7.7％。此后，亞洲市場紛紛上漲。雖然第一季度增速是一年半以來的最低水平，但市場對經濟放緩的模式感到滿意——消費品零售額的增長表明國內消費上升，固定資產投資增速則略有下降。唱衰中國的人認為中國依賴于債務支撐下的基建項目，但這些數據則表明中國在這方面的依賴程度正在下降。

????不過，這些統計數據完全沒有體現出中國經濟正在發生的演變有多么劇烈。每個月，仍然有幾百萬人從中國農村到城鎮地區去尋找制造業領域的工作機會，而中國農民工的數量已經超過美國的全部勞動力。中國的首要任務是要維持出口領域的發展，從而確保為這些人提供就業機會，以防經濟增速放緩導致政治局勢不穩。

????雖然周三公布的數據顯示，在緩慢實現經濟再平衡的過程中，中國的經濟增速仍足夠高，但批評者們仍有充足的理由來質疑中國經濟能否繼續保持增長。下面就是其中三條：

????1. 經濟史表明不太可能出現不間斷增長。

????無論是19世紀80年代的美國，還是20世紀90年代的日本，新興經濟體在演變為發達經濟體的過程中一般都會經歷某種形式的金融危機。“亞洲四小龍”中的新加坡和韓國是例外，它們的經濟發展過程并沒有出現持久的政治或經濟危機。事實上，韓國從專制到民主的過渡有時會被那些希望中國進行民主改革的人奉為民主化的典范。然而，即便這樣，韓國和新加坡還是在20世紀90年代受到了亞洲金融危機的沉重打擊，更何況中國的國土面積和多元化程度都遠遠超過新加坡和韓國。

????2. 中國的中央政府并不是無所不能。

????前銀行家兼作家薩蒂亞吉特?達斯最近指出，中國是否會出現所謂的經濟硬著陸很大程度上取決于中央政府與地方政府之間的角力。達斯寫道，

????中國有句俗話叫山高皇帝遠。它的意思是，自古以來，中國中央政府對地方的控制力都較弱，地方政府擁有自治權而且幾乎談不上忠誠，也就是說中央政府對地方事務的影響有限。

????盡管中央政府努力遏制影子銀行為地方基建項目放貸（這些項目規模巨大，經濟效益令人懷疑，而且是為了政績而建），但有大量證據表明，許多這樣的投資項目以及其他隱性投資仍然得到了資金支持。去年，摩根大通（JPMorgan）在一份報告中估計，2010-2012年影子銀行的規模擴大了一倍，達到6萬億美元。即便最近中國一直在整頓監管范圍之外的貸款，但目前可能已經出現了很多嚴重問題。

????3. 就算泡沫沒有破滅，揮霍浪費的支出仍然可能嚴重拖累經濟增長。

????1月下旬，中國一家投資公司因為資助的煤炭公司被迫違約而得到了政府的援助。這樣做是為了不讓市場擔心這家基金公司破產、從而在影子銀行領域引起恐慌。這起事件表明，中國政府愿意竭盡全力來防止金融危機。但是，北京方面無法糾正影子銀行做出的錯誤決定。即便中國能夠避免債務泡沫的破滅，缺乏效益的項目未來仍然會導致中國經濟陷入困境。（財富中文網）

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????The Chinese economy hasn't fallen from the tightrope yet.

????Markets in Asia rose Wednesday following the release of data showing that the growth of the Chinese economy slowed in the first quarter of 2014 to an annual rate of 7.4% from 7.7% the previous quarter. Though the first quarter saw the slowest growth for the Chinese economy in a year-and-a-half, markets were pleased with the way in which it was slowing -- with increases in retail sales signaling growth in domestic consumption and a slight decline in the rate of fixed asset investment growth, which show the Chinese turning away from what China bears see as a dependence on debt-fueled infrastructure projects.

????But these statistics don't even begin to tell the story of how radically the Chinese economy continues to evolve. Millions of people per month continue to emigrate from China's farms to urban areas in search of work in the country's manufacturing sector, while the number of migrant workers in China is greater than the size of the entire American labor force. Maintaining an export sector that can supply jobs for all these people is priority No. 1 for China, lest a lack of economic progress leads to political instability.

????And while data released Wednesday suggest that China is growing quickly enough while managing to slowly rebalance its economy, there are still plenty of reasons for critics to doubt they can continue to pull it off. Here are three:

????1. Economic history suggests a seamless ascent isn't likely.

????Be it the United States in the 1890s or Japan in the 1990s, it's common for economies to experience some sort of financial crisis as they make a transition from emergent to developed. Exceptions to this rule include Singapore and South Korea -- both of these "Asian Tigers" were able to ascend in status without lasting political or economic crises. Indeed, South Korea's transition from authoritarianism to democracy is sometimes cited as a model for those hopeful that democratic reforms will come to China. But even these economies were hit hard by the Asian financial crisis of the 1990s, and neither country is anywhere near as large or diverse as China.

????2. The Chinese central government isn't all-powerful.

????As former banker and author Satyajit Das pointed out recently, much of the case for expecting a so-called hard landing is centered around the way the central government interacts with powerful local governments in China. Writes Das,

????An ancient Chinese proverb -- shan gāo, huángdì yuǎn -- states "The mountains are high and the emperor is far away." The saying implies that Beijing's control over its regions is historically weak, with local autonomy and little loyalty, meaning that central authorities have limited influence over local affairs.

????Despite the central government's efforts to curb shadow bank lending to support big, economically questionable, politically motivated local infrastructure projects, there's plenty of evidence that these and other dodgy investments continue to be funded, threatening the stability of the system. A JPMorgan report from last year estimated that the size of the shadow banking sector doubled between 2010 and 2012 to $6 trillion. Even with recent efforts to rein in unregulated lending, much of the worst could already have been done.

????3. Even without a bubble burst, wasteful spending could be a serious drag on growth.

????In late January, a Chinese investment company was bailed out by the government after a coal company it was funding was forced to miss a debt payment. The bailout was arranged to calm fears that this particular fund company going belly up would spark panic in the rest of the shadow banking sector. The incident shows that the Chinese government is willing to go to great lengths to prevent a financial crisis, but Beijing can't do anything to reverse bad decisions made by shadow banks. Even if China can avoid a bursting of a debt bubble, its economy will still have to struggle under the weight of economically unproductive projects.