????希臘政府上周宣布，它很快就會重返國際資本市場。消息引起了不小的振動。理應如此。希臘的債務重組給投資者帶來了相當大的損失，也切斷了它主動吸引民間資金的渠道——現(xiàn)在，希臘政府又可以開始自主發(fā)行債券，這可是一件大事。

????希臘的整體失業(yè)率為27%，年輕人失業(yè)率更是高達58%。在這種情況下，幾乎不會有人笨到把希臘重新進行自主市場融資的可能性和希臘經(jīng)濟發(fā)出了安全信號混為一談。不過，這并不是真正的風險之所在。風險在于，重新獲得吸引民間資金的能力將延誤尚未完成的經(jīng)濟改革，而不是為它提供支持。

????重新進入市場是這幾年希臘致力于解決金融嚴重失衡問題的直接成果，也源于歐洲鄰國和國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的大力支持。

????為尋找日益稀缺的收益，投資者對低質量債券交易似乎有著無窮的胃口，這種市場現(xiàn)象引人關注，但不怎么具有可持續(xù)性，希臘和其他一些國家都已經(jīng)從中受益。

????話雖如此，但我們應該記住，希臘政府用了六個多月的時間才跟機構債權人就遲遲沒有落實的第二批國際援助資金的發(fā)放問題最終達成協(xié)議。在這個過程中，一些政策措施遭到了延誤，另一些則只是部分得到了執(zhí)行。

????鑒于談判耗時漫長，希臘政府對商討新的援助方案并不是非常熱心。如果說重新獲得通過債券籌集民間資金的能力有什么吸引力的話，那就是希臘可以借此降低對機構資金的依賴程度，同時在這個過程中削弱外界通過機構資金制約本國政策的能力。

????這樣的行動很可能證明希臘政府目光短淺；而且，這樣做還會讓新的債券投資者在今后面臨風險，原因有三。

????首先，雖然希臘證券的市場收益率暴跌，但從債務可持續(xù)性的角度來說，目前希臘政府所期望的借款成本（約為7%）仍然高于人們心里認定的安全水平。同時，這樣的借款成本是機構債權人對希臘貸款的兩倍。

????其次，希臘的現(xiàn)有債務仍然處于令人不安的高水平。同時，希臘的債務結構已經(jīng)朝著增加高級機構債券【包括相當多的歐洲央行（European Central Bank）和IMF債務】的方向發(fā)生了顯著變化，因而提高了重組難度，而且也變得更不靈活。

????最后，希臘經(jīng)濟依然增長乏力，導致希臘失去了提高債務人生活水平同時解決遺留債務問題的手段。

????這場危機給希臘帶來了沉重災難，讓數(shù)百萬民眾陷入貧困，還迫使許多希臘人為了尋找更好的生活而移民。要徹底擺脫它的影響，希臘還有相當長的一段路要走。如果即將回歸國際資本市場成了推遲必要改革的借口，那就是一場悲劇。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????本文作者默罕默德?埃爾-埃利安曾在太平洋投資管理公司擔任首席執(zhí)行官兼聯(lián)席首席投資官。現(xiàn)在，他是安聯(lián)集團國際執(zhí)行委員會成員、管理委員會首席經(jīng)濟顧問兼總裁全球發(fā)展委員會主席。他撰寫的《市場沖撞之時》曾經(jīng)登上《紐約時報》和《華爾街日報》暢銷書排行榜。

????譯者：Charlie

????

????The Greek Government caused quite a stir this week when it announced it would soon re-enter the international capital markets. Rightly so. It is a big deal for a sovereign to be able to place its first voluntary bond issuance after having undergone a debt restructuring that imposed considerable losses on investors and shut voluntary access to private capital financing.

????With the overall unemployment rate at 27%, and with youth joblessness at 58%, few are daft enough to confuse Greece's likely return to voluntary market funding with an all clear sign on the economy. However, the risk is elsewhere -- that the renewed availability of private financing will defer rather than support the yet-to-be-completed economic reform effort.

????Renewed market access is a direct consequence of the multi-year efforts Greece has made in overcoming its massive financial imbalances, as well as enormous backing from European neighbors and the International Monetary Fund.

????Like others, the country is also benefiting from a notable, albeit less sustainable, market phenomenon -- namely, a seemingly insatiable investor appetite for the "down in quality" bond trade in search of increasingly scarce yield.

????Having said that, we should remember that it took over six months for the Greek government to finally reach agreement with its official creditors on the release of delayed funding under the country's second international bailout package. In the process, some policy measures were deferred; others only partially implemented.

????Given the protracted negotiations, the government is not very enthusiastic about negotiating a new package. If anything, the temptation is to use the renewed availability of private bond financing to reduce dependence on official funding and, in the process, dilute outsiders' policy conditionality that comes with that.

????There are three big reasons why such a course of action would likely prove short-sighted for Greece; and it would also expose new bond investors to risks down the road.

????First, notwithstanding the massive decline in market yields on Greek securities, the level at which the government would likely borrow these days (around 7%) is still above what would be deemed safe in terms of debt sustainability. It is also a multiple of what it pays on loans from official creditors.

????Second, the existing stock of Greek debt remains uncomfortably high. It is also less flexible now that its composition has shifted markedly in favor of more senior, and therefore harder to restructure, official debt (including considerable obligations to the European Central Bank and the IMF).

????Third, economic growth remains anemic, depriving Greece from the one remedy that allows debtors to improve living standards while also dealing with legacy obligations.

????Greece still has quite a way to go before it can decisively emerge from a crisis that has caused havoc, impoverished millions of citizens, and caused many others to migrate in search of a better life. It would be a tragedy if its impending return to international capital markets were to serve as an excuse to delay the required reforms.

????Mohamed A. El-Erian, former CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, is a member of the International Executive Committee at Allianz and chief economic advisor to its management board, chair of the President's Global Development Council, and author of the NYT/WSJ bestseller When Markets Collide.