????多年來(lái)，全世界的投資者都知道，人民幣只有一個(gè)前進(jìn)方向，那就是升值。

????上周，中國(guó)人民銀行（the People's Bank of China）宣布將人民幣每日交易波動(dòng)范圍從中間價(jià)上下各1%擴(kuò)大到2%。分析師隨后預(yù)計(jì)，中國(guó)未來(lái)將允許人民幣升值，從而更吻合中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的相對(duì)實(shí)力，而此舉正是朝著這個(gè)方向邁出的又一步。但上周市場(chǎng)開(kāi)盤(pán)后，人民幣實(shí)際上穩(wěn)步下行，創(chuàng)下了近一年來(lái)的新低。

????一般認(rèn)為，這種局面是中國(guó)人民銀行一手策劃的——它首先大舉拋售人民幣，隨后又協(xié)同中國(guó)國(guó)有銀行以及出口商共同采取了這樣的行動(dòng)。上周四，《金融時(shí)報(bào)》（Financial Times）在一篇報(bào)道中這樣寫(xiě)到：

????在中國(guó)人民銀行的持續(xù)干預(yù)之下，人民幣從一個(gè)月前開(kāi)始下跌，但大多數(shù)企業(yè)和銀行都在境內(nèi)市場(chǎng)保持觀望態(tài)度，認(rèn)為人民幣貶值將是短期現(xiàn)象。

????不過(guò)，交易員透露，從國(guó)有石油公司到私營(yíng)出口商，市場(chǎng)上的主要參與者近幾天來(lái)都出現(xiàn)了退讓?zhuān)F(xiàn)在正在針對(duì)人民幣為期更長(zhǎng)的貶值調(diào)整自己的倉(cāng)位。

????因此，看起來(lái)中國(guó)人民銀行、中國(guó)國(guó)有企業(yè)和私營(yíng)公司全面參與了壓低人民幣匯率的行動(dòng)。這種策略對(duì)出口商的吸引力顯而易見(jiàn)，因?yàn)槿嗣駧刨H值對(duì)中國(guó)的出口導(dǎo)向型經(jīng)濟(jì)而言意味著更多的收入。但這步棋并不僅僅是為了在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)表面呈現(xiàn)滑坡趨勢(shì)的時(shí)候?yàn)槌隹谏烫峁椭?/p>

????康奈爾大學(xué)（Cornell University）經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、《美元陷阱：美元鞏固全球金融控制權(quán)的秘密》（The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance）一書(shū)的作者伊斯瓦?普拉薩德認(rèn)為，此舉是中國(guó)政府一項(xiàng)復(fù)雜行動(dòng)的一部分，行動(dòng)的目的是緩慢實(shí)現(xiàn)中國(guó)金融市場(chǎng)的自由化，同時(shí)讓人民幣在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中發(fā)揮更顯著的作用。普拉薩德說(shuō)：“擴(kuò)大人民幣匯率波動(dòng)范圍和人民幣走低是一個(gè)整體。從借此獲得國(guó)內(nèi)政治支持的角度來(lái)看，我覺(jué)得中國(guó)人民銀行面臨著壓力。它得讓人們看到，擴(kuò)大波動(dòng)范圍不會(huì)立即造成人民幣幣值躥升?！?/p>

????因此，中國(guó)人民銀行必須和其他方面聯(lián)手帶動(dòng)人民幣貶值，以便讓具有政治實(shí)力的出口商感到滿(mǎn)意。但同時(shí)，它也給了人民銀行以及中國(guó)政府內(nèi)部的改革派人士進(jìn)一步解放經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的騰挪空間。匯豐銀行（HSBC ）中國(guó)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家兼經(jīng)濟(jì)研究亞太區(qū)聯(lián)席主管屈宏斌寫(xiě)道：

????中國(guó)從三個(gè)渠道實(shí)現(xiàn)人民幣國(guó)際化：加強(qiáng)人民幣在外貿(mào)結(jié)算中的作用——在這方面人民幣已經(jīng)取代歐元，僅次于美元；鼓勵(lì)人民幣跨境投資；建立人民幣離岸交易中心。

????換句話說(shuō)，中國(guó)正在設(shè)法幫助人民幣晉級(jí)為儲(chǔ)備貨幣。成為國(guó)際儲(chǔ)備貨幣有很多好處，包括提升地緣政治實(shí)力，以及有能力在國(guó)際市場(chǎng)上進(jìn)行低成本借貸。但要實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)目標(biāo)，中國(guó)就必須放棄對(duì)人民幣匯率的控制，同時(shí)放寬資本管制。也就是說(shuō)，允許外國(guó)人加大對(duì)中國(guó)公司的投資力度，同時(shí)允許中國(guó)人對(duì)海外投資。所有這些措施都會(huì)影響人民幣幣值。中國(guó)人向海外投資將壓低人民幣匯率，讓更多投資進(jìn)入中國(guó)則將提高人民幣幣值。中國(guó)人民銀行擴(kuò)大人民幣交易波動(dòng)范圍將在一定程度上減輕這項(xiàng)新經(jīng)濟(jì)舉措給中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的壓力。

????我們習(xí)慣于認(rèn)為中國(guó)總是在設(shè)法降低人民幣匯率，以便為自己的出口型經(jīng)濟(jì)提供幫助。但上周聯(lián)合壓低人民幣幣值的行動(dòng)表明，這個(gè)世界第二大經(jīng)濟(jì)體已經(jīng)開(kāi)始停止協(xié)同低估本幣，中國(guó)開(kāi)始采取的政策最終將讓人民幣升值并在全球經(jīng)濟(jì)中發(fā)揮更大的作用。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????For years, investors around the world knew that China's currency was going just one way: up.

????After the People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced last week that it would allow its currency to trade in a wider daily band of 2% rather than 1%, analysts expected this to simply mark another step in the direction of allowing the currency to appreciate to a value more in line with the relative strength of the Chinese economy. But when trading began last week, the renminbi actually fell steadily, to its lowest level in nearly a year.

????The conventional wisdom is that China's central bank engineered this move, first by aggressively selling renminbi itself and then in coordination with state-owned Chinese banks and Chinese exporters. Here's a Financial Times report from last Thursday:

????The renminbi's decline began one month ago with sustained intervention by the People's Bank of China, but most companies and banks remained on the sidelines in the onshore market, anticipating that depreciation would be shortlived.

????However, traders said important market players -- from state-owned oil companies to private sector exporters -- had capitulated in recent days and were now positioning themselves for a weaker renminbi for longer.

????So it would appear that the Chinese central bank, state-owned companies, and the private sector are engaged in a full-court press to drive down the value of the yuan. The appeal of this strategy is clear for exporters, as a weaker yuan means fatter revenues for China's export-dominated economy. But the reason for this maneuvering goes beyond helping exporters get through a period when the Chinese economy appears to be weakening.

????According to Eswar Prasad, an economist at Cornell University and author of The Dollar Trap: How the U.S. Dollar Tightened Its Grip on Global Finance, the move is part of a complicated dance in which the Chinese government is attempting to slowly liberalize its financial markets and allow the renminbi to take on a more prominent role in the global economy. "The widening of the trade band and the decline of the yuan are part of the same story," Prasad says. "In terms of getting domestic political support for this move, I feel the PBOC was under pressure to show that this would not immediately lead to a jump in the renminbi's value."

????So the PBOC had to coordinate the depreciation of the renminbi in order to satisfy politically powerful exporters, but it was also a move to give the central bank and reformers inside the Chinese government wiggle room to further liberalize its economic policy. As Qu Hongbin, co-head of Asian Economic Research and Chief Economist at HSBC has written:

????China has a three-pronged approach to renminbi internationalisation: expand the currency's role in foreign trade settlement -- it has already overtaken the euro to become the second to the dollar -- encourage its use in cross-border investment, and develop offshore renminbi centres.

????In other words, China is trying to help its currency ascend to the status of a reserve currency. Being an international reserve currency has many benefits, including increased geopolitical power, as well as the ability to borrow cheaply in international markets. But to get there, China is going to have to give up its control of the value of the remninbi, as well as loosen its capital controls. That means allowing foreigners to invest more heavily in Chinese companies and permitting Chinese citizens to invest money abroad. All of these moves are going to effect the value of the renminbi. Chinese investing money abroad will push the value of the renminbi down, allowing more outside investment in China will push it up. And the PBOC allowing more volatility in the remninbi will relieve some of the pressure that all this new economic activity will have on the Chinese economy.

????We're used to seeing China work to keep the value of its currency down to help its export-driven economy. But last week's coordinated depression of the yuan is a sign that the world's second-largest economy is moving away from a concerted effort to undervalue its currency and toward policies that will lead to it ultimately appreciating and taking on a larger role in the global economy.