????不過，50億至60億美元似乎仍然不足以解決問題，尤其是考慮到腐敗成本。畢竟，為了主辦剛剛結(jié)束的索契冬奧會，俄羅斯在基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施上投入了500億美元。其中，連接索契和位于高加索山脈滑雪場地的25英里軌道和公路共計花費了約90億美元，相當于一英里3.6億美元。

????我們假設(shè)，俄羅斯政府按索契一半的標準，修建一條連接塞瓦斯托波爾到俄羅斯邊境的170英里的全新鐵路和公路。如果俄羅斯希望它的商品和游客進入克里米亞，這項工程勢在必行。僅這一項工程便需要俄羅斯投入300億美元。此外，俄羅斯還需要在刻赤海峽上修建連接克里米亞與俄羅斯大陸的橋梁——普京顯然對這個項目很感興趣。僅大橋的成本便要30億美元左右。再乘以3（腐敗成本），便等于約90億美元。也就是說，僅鐵路和公路的成本便達到390億美元，別忘了還有從學校到政府機構(gòu)等各部門方方面面的開支。

????現(xiàn)在，烏克蘭有一個絕佳的機會，讓俄羅斯感受一下痛苦。不需要用炸彈，只要把國土讓給俄羅斯即可。烏克蘭在選舉新政府時還應該起草新的憲法，重新考慮邊境劃分問題，將收益最大化，成本最小化。哪些地區(qū)應該保留？哪些地區(qū)可以放棄？很顯然，烏克蘭東部各省涌現(xiàn)出最多親俄反政府的官員，其中大多數(shù)都是老共產(chǎn)黨員。如果沒有這些人，不論接下來誰執(zhí)掌烏克蘭，日子都會好過一些。此外，這些省份也是烏克蘭最貧窮的省份。如果烏克蘭放棄這四個與俄羅斯接壤的省份（以及克里米亞）——頓涅斯克、盧甘斯克、赫爾松和扎波羅熱，烏克蘭每年可以節(jié)省20億美元。

????放棄這些賠錢的省份，甩給俄羅斯一個龐大的財政包袱，同時又能減輕烏克蘭自己的負擔。不考慮克里米亞并入俄羅斯的成本，俄羅斯今年的預算缺口預計將達到120億美元。雖然未來幾年，俄羅斯經(jīng)濟將保持2.5%的增長速度，但赤字只會越來越嚴重。要吸納生活水平本就不高的數(shù)百萬人，更是雪上加霜。所以，如果在這場小沖突中，烏克蘭在軍事上無法戰(zhàn)勝俄羅斯，那么它不妨退而求其次，讓俄羅斯人嘗嘗破產(chǎn)的滋味。（財富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：劉進龍/汪皓

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????But that $5-6 billion figure seems low, especially when you figure in the cost of corruption. After all, Russia just spent around $50 billion on infrastructure to host the Winter Olympics in Sochi this year. Of that $50 billion, it spent around $9 billion to build a 25-mile rail and road link connecting Sochi to the winter ski events in the Caucasus Mountains. That equates to some $360 million per mile.

????Say the government spent half that Sochi rate to build a fancy new rail and road link 170 miles from Sevastopol to the Russian border. This would be imperative if it wanted to bring Russian goods and tourists into Crimea. Such an adventure would cost the Russian government a cool $30 billion. Russia would then need to build the bridge connecting Crimea to the Russian mainland over the Kerch Strait -- a project that Putin is apparently very excited about. The government estimates the bridge alone would cost around $3 billion. Now, multiply that by three (cost of corruption) and it will probably end up being around $9 billion. That's $39 billion for a rail and road link -- and we haven't even gotten to the billions of dollars that would be needed to pay for everything from schools to bureaucracy.

????Ukraine has a golden opportunity here to make Russia feel some pain. It won't be by hurling bombs but by just giving away territory. As Ukraine elects a new government, it should also draft a new constitution and rethink its borders to maximize revenue and minimize cost. Who should stay and who should go? Apparently, the eastern provinces of Ukraine pump out the most pro-Russian and reactionary government officials, most of whom come from the old Communist Party. Losing those folks would make life much easier for whoever takes power in Ukraine. Those provinces are also some of the poorest in the country. If Ukraine would just jettison the four provinces that hug its eastern border with Russia (including Crimea) -- Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya -- it could save another $2 billion a year.

????Absorbing all of those money-losing provinces would deliver a major financial blow to Russia, while lightening the load for Ukraine. Russia is already expected to post a $12 billion budget shortfall for the year before factoring in the cost of the Crimean annexation. With its economic growth rate stuck at around 2.5% for the next few years, that deficit will just grow larger and larger over time. Having to absorb millions of people, who are mostly poor, will just make things worse. As such, if Ukraine can't win this little skirmish with Russia along military grounds, it should do the next best thing and just bankrupt them.

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