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霧霾迫使有錢人計劃逃離中國

霧霾迫使有錢人計劃逃離中國

Scott Cendrowski 2014-03-20
有能力避開霧霾的人,尤其是有孩子的家庭,正在逃離北京等“不適宜居住”城市,涌向美國、加拿大和歐洲。

????早在上世紀70年代以前,紐約中央公園還是一片頹敗之象。橋梁搖搖欲墜,柳樹也枯萎了。涂鴉和肆意破壞令游樂場和長椅一片狼藉。這種景象會讓人不由自主地認為,美好的時光一去不復返了。“正面利用已逐漸被違法活動所取代,”紐約中央公園保護協會(Central Park Conservancy)如此形容道。

????后來,喬治?索羅斯站了出來。這個知名區域有著160年的歷史,但紐約市政府的糟糕管理,卻讓他和其他人很是懊惱,于是索羅斯和其他金融家委托進行了一項公園修復研究。研究的主要建議是,成立一個由私人組成的委員會,監督公園的運營——實際上,就是允許普通公民控制公園。很快,非盈利組織“中央公園保護協會”成立,這個地區也恢復了昔日的榮光。三十年后,中央公園每年約6,000萬美元的預算中,75%都由這個保護協會提供,保護協會本身也成為紐約市赫赫有名的組織之一。協會的理事會成員包括前摩根大通(J.P. Morgan)主席兼CEO威廉?哈里森、投資機構KKR的亨利?克拉維斯,以及對沖基金經理約翰?鮑爾森。鮑爾森在兩年前宣布向保護協會捐助1億美元,成為這座公園收到的最大一筆捐款。

????全世界貧富差距的日益擴大,引發了人們對于經濟公平和階級劃分的擔憂。但中央公園的復興證明了非常富有的階層在公民社會中的重要性。他們用自己的錢,為政府不會資助的項目提供資金;而且,他們在城市中心有著特殊的關鍵地位。所有這些都解釋了一個問題:為什么中國空氣污染迫使有錢人逃離的消息這么令人憂慮?中國是否因為霧霾而正在失去它最重要的居民?

????中國北方城市糟糕的空氣狀況已經持續有一段時間了。但因為過去幾年的“空氣末日”和屢屢刷新紀錄的PM 2.5水平,中國人越來越不滿,越來越多的有錢人開始計劃撤離中國。PM2.5是指直徑小于2.5微米(人類頭發寬度的1/30)的危險的小型污染物,能夠進入人類血液,可能導致癌癥和呼吸系統疾病。

????最近的調查提供了有力證據,證明中國的污染城市可能正面臨失去富裕階層的風險。胡潤研究院(Hurun Research Institute)一月份發布的調查顯示,64%的中國富人(身家千萬級別)已經移民或正在計劃移民其他國家,而兩年前的調查結果為60%。這樣的結果連中國年度富豪榜胡潤百富(Hurun Report)的創始人胡潤自己都大吃一驚。他沒想到這個比例在如此高的情況下還會繼續增長。他表示,污染和食品安全是移民的第二大理由,排在首位的理由是人們對于安全和財富保障的渴望。雖然移民人數尚未達到臨界點,但胡潤說:“許多家庭發現其他富裕家庭正在移居海外,”這讓他們有了效仿的對象。

????By the 1970s, Central Park was in a state of decay. Bridges were crumbling. Meadows had dried up. Graffiti and vandalism blighted playgrounds and benches. There was an overwhelming feeling that its best days had passed. "Positive use had increasingly been displaced by illicit and illegal activity," is how the Central Park Conservancy describes it today.

????Then George Soros stepped in. Frustrated by what he and others saw as New York City's inept management of the 160-year-old institution, Soros and another financier commissioned a study on potential fixes. Its chief recommendation was creating a private citizen-based board to oversee an individual running the park's operations -- in effect, allowing private citizens to control the park. Soon the not-for-profit Central Park Conservancy was created, and the area returned to its former glory. Thirty years later the conservancy provides 75% of a nearly $60 million annual park budget and is a New York institution unto itself. The board of trustees includes former J.P. Morgan (JPM) Chairman and CEO William Harrison, KKR's (KKR) Henry Kravis, and the hedge fund manager John Paulson, who two years ago announced he would give $100 million to the conservancy, the largest park donation ever.

????The growing wealth gap around the world is raising concerns about economic fairness and class divisions. But Central Park's revival illustrates the importance of the very wealthy in civic society. Their private dollars fund projects that governments won't, and they have an especially key role in urban centers. All this explains why reports of China's air pollution driving out wealthy residents are so troubling. Is China losing its most important residents to smog?

????The air in northern Chinese cities has been poor for a while. But after the past few years of "air apocalypses" and record-high levels of PM 2.5, the dangerously small pollutants under 2.5 micrometers in size (1/30 the width of a human hair) that find their way into the bloodstream and have been linked to cancers and respiratory problems, citizens have increased complaints and growing numbers of rich have started making plans to move away.

????A recent survey provides the strongest evidence yet that China's polluted cities risk driving away the rich. Released in January by the Hurun Research Institute, the survey shows 64% of China's rich (those with wealth above $1.6 million) were either immigrating to another country or planning to, a rise from 60% in the last poll two years ago. That came as a surprise to Rupert Hoogewerf, founder of the Hurun Report, an annual China rich list. He wasn't expecting the already high figure to grow. He says pollution and food safety was the second-biggest reason for emigrating, after the general desire for security and financial well-being. Although the numbers of those emigrating haven't yet reached a critical mass, Hoogewerf says "a lot of families are finding a lot of other rich families are going overseas," providing examples to follow.

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