????就在烏克蘭政府倒臺(tái)幾個(gè)月前，俄羅斯和烏方達(dá)成了貸款協(xié)議，這筆交易甚至?xí)尳Y(jié)構(gòu)性金融領(lǐng)域的王牌交易人都艷羨不已。一位主權(quán)債務(wù)專家對(duì)這筆交易的評(píng)價(jià)是“高明”。但它有可能反過(guò)來(lái)給烏克蘭經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)長(zhǎng)期的困擾。

????去年12月份，俄羅斯向?yàn)蹩颂m貸款30億美元。這是俄羅斯援烏計(jì)劃的一部分，而整個(gè)援助計(jì)劃的預(yù)期規(guī)模為150億美元。不過(guò)，俄方?jīng)]有直接把資金交到烏克蘭手里，而是讓烏克蘭政府發(fā)行了價(jià)值30億美元的歐元計(jì)價(jià)債券，隨后將這批債券悉數(shù)買(mǎi)下。

????這筆交易似乎簡(jiǎn)單明了。烏克蘭的歐洲債券余額已經(jīng)達(dá)到數(shù)十億美元。因此，和制定新的貸款協(xié)議相比，繼續(xù)發(fā)債看起來(lái)可能更容易。此外，由于國(guó)內(nèi)政局動(dòng)蕩愈演愈烈，烏克蘭的其他歐洲債券已經(jīng)受到了不利影響，向俄羅斯發(fā)債則有望提高這些債券的價(jià)格。

????然而，這筆拐彎抹角的貸款給予俄羅斯的優(yōu)勢(shì)要比乍看上去多。而這正是它的奇妙之處。

????原來(lái)，俄羅斯沒(méi)有讓烏克蘭像以前那樣簡(jiǎn)單地發(fā)債。相反，俄方在烏克蘭發(fā)行這批債券時(shí)提出了一個(gè)條件。作為本次債券交易的一部分，烏克蘭必須保證把自己的債務(wù)/GDP比例保持在60%以下。如果超過(guò)這個(gè)水平，俄羅斯就有權(quán)要求烏方立即全額還款。

????這種限定條件在政府債券領(lǐng)域并不常見(jiàn)。主權(quán)債券專家米圖·古拉蒂表示，他從未見(jiàn)過(guò)哪只政府債券帶有類似的債務(wù)/GDP比例條款。大多數(shù)主權(quán)債券的門(mén)檻都很低。

????很難證明這個(gè)條款是事先計(jì)劃好的，但它給了俄羅斯很大的經(jīng)濟(jì)影響力。發(fā)債時(shí)烏克蘭的債務(wù)/GDP比例接近40%。但鑒于俄羅斯可能想讓克里米亞脫離烏克蘭，從而把當(dāng)?shù)氐慕?jīng)濟(jì)活動(dòng)從烏克蘭抽離出來(lái)；再加上政局不穩(wěn)造成經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)放緩，烏克蘭接下來(lái)公布的一、兩個(gè)債務(wù)/GDP數(shù)字就可能達(dá)到百分之六十多，甚至更高。

????這就意味著俄羅斯可以把這筆錢(qián)要回來(lái)，同時(shí)讓烏克蘭在努力重建的過(guò)程中遇到更大的經(jīng)濟(jì)困難。

????如果這只是一筆貸款，烏克蘭就完全可以對(duì)弗拉基米爾·普京說(shuō)：“嘿，你剛剛侵略了我們。欠債一筆勾銷。我們不還了。”然而，由于這是一筆債券交易，情況就沒(méi)那么簡(jiǎn)單了。要讓這批歐洲債券作廢，烏克蘭就得說(shuō)，俄羅斯知道自己同意為烏前政府提供的資金中，至少會(huì)有一部分被腐敗的政府首腦中飽私囊。烏克蘭人當(dāng)然相信這一點(diǎn)，但這在國(guó)際法庭上也許很難得到證實(shí)。

????烏克蘭的其他歐洲債券中，有許多都和俄羅斯手中的這批債券相似。因此，不贖回俄方持有的債券將對(duì)所有烏克蘭債券產(chǎn)生更大的影響，導(dǎo)致它們的價(jià)格下跌，利率上升。此外，俄羅斯還可以在市場(chǎng)上將這批債券脫手——由于帶有特殊條款，俄方很可能實(shí)現(xiàn)溢價(jià)轉(zhuǎn)讓。法庭裁定這批債券作廢的可能性也許會(huì)因此而下降；考慮到這批債券可能落入私人投資者手中，特別是非俄羅斯人，烏克蘭也可能不再那么想讓它作廢。

????說(shuō)到這里，美國(guó)和歐洲有可能慷慨地為烏克蘭提供貸款擔(dān)保，而且也已經(jīng)承諾提供援助。如果俄羅斯要求還債，美國(guó)和歐洲的援助應(yīng)該有助于解決烏克蘭的短期債務(wù)問(wèn)題。但實(shí)際情況很可能不是這樣，原因是這批債券進(jìn)一步提高了俄羅斯的影響力，也成為烏克蘭坐下來(lái)談判的又一條理由。

????當(dāng)然，烏克蘭仍有可能說(shuō)自己就是不會(huì)還債，而且還什么事都沒(méi)有。和華爾街的慣例相比，這次不尋常的發(fā)債可能反其道而行之。在華爾街，大多數(shù)債券持有人都不愿意用債權(quán)換股權(quán)。而在這里，盼望重建昔日帝國(guó)的鄰邦也許更愿意這樣做。（財(cái)富中文網(wǎng)）

????譯者：Charlie

????

????Just months before the toppling of its government, Russia cut a loan deal with Ukraine that would make even an ace structured finance dealmaker envious. One expert on sovereign debt has called the transaction "clever." And the deal could come back to haunt Ukraine's economy.

????Back in December, Russia lent Ukraine $3 billion as part of an assistance package that was supposed to reach $15 billion. But Russia didn't just hand over money directly to Ukraine. Instead, Russian had the Ukrainian government issue $3 billion in bonds. The bonds were denominated in euros. And then Russia bought all of the bonds.

????That may have seemed like a straightforward way to do the deal. Ukraine already had billions of eurobonds outstanding. So issuing more may have appeared easier than writing up a new loan agreement. Plus, the deal would give a lift to the prices of Ukraine's other eurobonds, which were already suffering from the growing political turmoil in the country.

????But the roundabout loan deal had more advantages for Russia than it first appeared. Here's where things get interesting.

????It turns out that Russia didn't just have Ukraine do a straight debt offering like the ones it had done before. Instead, Russia wrote into the new bond offering a provision. As part of the bond deal, Ukraine had to promise that it would keep its debt-to-GDP level below 60%. If it rose above that level, Russia had the right to demand the bonds be repaid immediately in full.

????That kind of qualification in government bond deals is unusual. Mitu Gulati, a sovereign bond expert, says he has never seen a government bond with a similar debt-to-GDP provision. Most sovereign debt is "covenant-lite."

????It would be hard to prove this was premeditated, but including that provision gives Russia a lot of economic leverage. At the time, Ukraine's debt-to-GDP was near 40%. But with Russian looking likely to hive off Crimea, and taking that portion of the Ukraine's economic activity with it, along with the slowdown the political unrest has caused, it's likely that by the next reading or two Ukraine's debt will be in the 60% range or beyond it.

????That means Russia can ask for its money back, and at the same time add more economic hardship to Ukraine as it struggles to rebuild.

????If this was a straight loan, Ukraine could just say to Vladimir Putin, "Hey you just invaded us. Debt's off. We're not paying." But since it's a bond deal, it won't be that easy. To invalidate the eurobond debt, Ukraine has to argue that Russia knew that part of the money it agreed to give to Ukraine's past government was at least in part going to line the pockets of a corrupt ruler. The Ukrainians certainly believe that, but that might be hard to prove to an international court.

????There are a lot of other Ukrainian eurobonds out there that look similar to the ones Russia is holding, so not paying the ones Russia is holding will have larger implications for all of Ukraine's debt, causing prices to fall and interest rates to rise. What's more, Russia could sell its bonds to the market, likely at a premium because of the special provision. That may make a court less likely to invalidate the debt, and Ukraine less willing to do so, if it is held by a private investor, especially a non-Russian one.

????That being said, the United States and Europe will likely offer generous loan guarantees and have already pledged aid to Ukraine. That should help it with its near-term debt problems should Russia call its debt. And it probably won't, given that the debt offers Russia another piece of leverage, and another reason for Ukraine to negotiate.

????Of course, there is still a chance that Ukraine would just say it's not paying the debt, and for it all to work out okay. The unusual debt deal probably works opposite from what you would expect on Wall Street. Most bond holders don't want to swap their debt for equity. Neighboring nations looking to rebuild old empires may be more willing to make that trade.

????