????上周，中國國務院總理李克強在3000名人大代表面前做政府工作報告時表示，2014年中國的GDP增長目標是7.5%，與兩年前持平。他的話帶動了股市上漲，市場參與者也不出所料地感到歡欣鼓舞。不過，也有少數經濟學家對此表示異議。他們認為中國的年度GDP增長目標妨礙了政府關注一些重大問題，比如污染、債務激增和當前的改革，這種情況很危險。持這種觀點的經濟學家數量正在不斷上升，他們表示，GDP增長目標弊大于利。

????首先讓我們介紹一些背景情況：1985年中國首次核算GDP【此前中國借用蘇聯的物質產品平衡表體系（Material Product System）來計算經濟產出。這個體系的缺陷在于它不包括服務業。中國是一個幅員遼闊的國家，這種經濟核算方式沒什么價值】，隨后很快開始公布GDP增長目標，20多年來一直如此。

????最初，設定經濟增長目標的效果很好。地方政府努力完成經濟指標，幾千萬人在這個過程中擺脫了貧困。然而，隨著2010年之后中國很快躋身全球經濟前五名，接著又成為世界上第二大經濟體（僅次于美國），GDP增長目標開始顯現出它不利的一面。地方政府不計代價地尋求經濟增長。中國政府一直在食品安全問題上妥協讓步。各地普遍出現環境污染。為了促進地方經濟增長，所有規模較小的城市都存在影子債務。

????長江商學院（the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business）北京校區經濟學教授李偉說：“一個國家還很貧窮時，制定GDP增長目標有好處。不過，一旦像中國這樣成為中等收入國家，人們就會開始重視生活質量。”

????李偉指出，中國目前處境艱難。相比而言，改善服務能給美國地方政府帶來收益，原因是更好的服務會吸引來更多的人，稅收就會增長。在中國，地方政府不能收稅，而要靠中央政府的財政劃撥。通過防治大氣污染等措施吸引來更多的人也不能給中國各地的地方政府帶來好處，他們唯一想吸引的是那些能促進地方經濟發展的人，目的是給中央政府一個好印象，從而提高自己在財政收入分配中所占的份額。地方政府要的是能提升GDP的行業，有時這些行業會造成污染，或者需要很大的激勵，而這會影響民眾的生活質量。

????制定GDP增長目標的部分原因是證明中央政府的決策合理性。經濟咨詢機構龍洲經訊（Gavekal Dragonomics）研究總監白安儒這樣寫道：“中國政府錯過了降低、甚至完全放棄經濟增長目標的機會，表明中國政府在讓公眾繼續支持自己的政策規劃方面存在顧慮。”去年，中國政府在信貸飛速增長的情況下收緊了政策，今年的增長目標則表明，中國再次采取了促增長政策。白安儒說：“有些人和我們一樣，希望看到中國政府能迅速改變執著于增長目標的局面。因此，我們這些人都很失望。”

????中國領導人似乎已經意識到，雖然公布GDP增長目標存在問題，但他們無力予以解決。李克強總理在人大會議上宣布最新經濟增長目標一天后，財政部長樓繼偉在記者招待會上表示，經濟增長稍低于目標也無妨。樓繼偉說，7.2%也算合理的經濟增長率。他強調，創造就業機會、控制物價上漲和經濟效益比實現增長目標更重要。

????公布今年的GDP目標后立即給它打個折扣，看起來幾乎就像是預先安排好的一樣。就好比中國政府先公布一個備受矚目的數字，然后又解釋說，實現這個目標也不是什么大事。

????中國會不會很快就停止制定GDP目標？經濟學家對這個問題的態度并不樂觀。但就目前而言，中國肯在這個目標上讓步可能已經是個足夠好的消息了。（財富中文網）

????譯者：Charlie

????When China's Premier Li Keqiang told a supportive audience of 3,000 delegates in Beijing last week that the country would aim for 7.5% GDP growth in 2014 -- the same target of the past two years -- stocks rose and traders predictably cheered. But the news also produced groans from a small but growing number of economists who believe China's annual GDP target dangerously distracts the country from its huge problems of pollution, exploding debt, and ongoing reforms. They say it hurts more than it helps.

????First, some background: China has released GDP targets for more than two decades, beginning shortly after the country first calculated GDP in 1985. (Before that, China relied on the Material Product System to measure economic output, a system borrowed from the Soviets. MPS's flaw is that it doesn't measure services, which in a country as large as China makes it kind of worthless.)

????GDP targeting worked well for China initially. Local governments strived to meet economic directives and freed tens of millions from poverty in the process. But as China cracked into the world's top five economies earlier this decade and then moved into the No. 2 spot (behind the U.S.), GDP targets began showing their dark side. Local governments were pursuing growth at any cost. In China, food safety has been compromised. Pollution is widespread. Shadow debt exists across smaller cities as localities push for growth.

????"When you are poor country, GDP targeting has advantages," says Wei Li, professor of economics at the Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing. "But once you're in middle income, like China, people start to value quality of life."

????Li points out that China is in a tough spot. In the U.S., for comparison, local governments are rewarded for providing better services because better services attract more people, and tax revenues increase. In China, because local government's can't collect taxes -- they instead rely on allocations from the central government -- they aren't rewarded for attracting more people with offerings such as, say, clean air. The only people they seek to attract are those who will boost local GDP, thus impressing the central government into allocating them a larger share of revenues. Localities seek out GDP-boosting businesses, sometimes polluting ones or those that require big incentives, at a detriment to citizens' quality of life.

????GDP targets are used in part to legitimize the central government. "Passing up the opportunity to lower or abandon the growth target shows the government's concern with maintaining public support for its agenda," writes Andrew Batson, China Research Director at Gavekal Dragonomics. The target signals a return to the country's pro-growth policies after it tightened runaway credit last year. "This is disappointing to those like ourselves who would like to see China move more quickly away from its obsession with growth targets," Batson says.

????China's leaders seem to recognize that while publishing GDP targets is problematic, it's something they are helpless to fix. A day after Li Keqiang released the latest figure at China's largest annual government meeting, Finance Minister Lou Jiwei told a press briefing that it would be okay if China slightly missed the mark. He said 7.2% could be acceptable, stressing the importance of job creation, inflation control, and economic gains over hitting the target.

????The instant backing away from this year's GDP target seemed almost premeditated, like the government wanted to release an impressive figure before explaining why it wasn't really that big of a deal if they met it.

????Economists aren't optimistic that China will stop publishing targets anytime soon. But China's backpedaling might be good enough news for now.?????