????這些天，奧馬哈先知——沃倫?巴菲特的水晶球里一定是一片模糊。

????周六上午，巴菲特發表了致伯克希爾-哈撒韋公司（Berkshire Hathaway）股東的年度公開信。他在信中基本上沒有提到股市，也沒有預測股票動向。像過去一樣，巴菲特說他仍然對美國充滿信心。2013年，伯克希爾在工廠和設備方面投資了110億美元。巴菲特指出，其中89%的資金都用在了美國。

????身為伯克希爾的董事長兼首席執行官，巴菲特在信中寫道：“雖然我們也有海外投資，但美國才是機遇的主要源泉?！钡麤]有說股票是不是目前美國最好的投資對象。顯然，擁有一家讓伯克希爾成為買主的公司是一件了不起的事。這封股東信中有一段話談到了巴菲特及其合作伙伴查理?芒格對投資的看法——本刊已經在上周早些時候節選刊登了這部分內容。巴菲特列舉了自己最成功的兩項投資，它們都出現在房地產領域。

????此前巴菲特每年致伯克希爾股東的信也曾經要么對股市避而不談，要么不會預測股票走勢。但在過去的幾年中，他至少曾經用過一些文字來專門探討股市。兩年前，巴菲特用三頁半的篇幅詳細解釋了為什么他認為投資于股票要遠好于黃金或債券（請參見《沃倫?巴菲特：股票為什么勝過黃金和債券》（Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds））。他還說，自己看好美國樓市。

????去年，巴菲特用了四段內容來專門討論股票。他還說，他認為股市仍將“表現良好”。而就在一年前，巴菲特對股市的熱情似乎還在下降。他在信中寫道，股市投資者會時不時地遇到挫折。如果這是意在暗示2013年股市將回落，那么巴菲特的預言沒有成真。2013年，標普500指數（S&P 500）的總回報率達到了32%。

????The Oracle of Omaha's crystal ball must be cloudy these days.

????In Warren Buffett's annual letter to Berkshire Hathaway (BRKA) shareholders, released Saturday morning, he says little about the stock market or where shares might be headed. Buffett does say, as he has in the past, that he still believes in America. Berkshire spent $11 billion on plant and equipment in 2013, and Buffett notes that 89% of that money was spent in the U.S.

????"Though we invest abroad as well, the mother lode of opportunity resides in America," writes Buffett, who is the chairman and CEO of Berkshire. But he doesn't say whether stocks are the best investment opportunity in America these days. Clearly, owning a company that makes stuff that Berkshire buys is swell. There's a section about how Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger think about investing, which Fortune excerpted earlier this week. Buffett cites two of his best investments, and both are in real estate.

????Buffett has gone other years without commenting on the stock market or making a prediction where shares are headed in Berkshire's annual letter. But in the last few years, Buffett has dedicated at least some of his letter to opining on the market. Two years ago, Buffett spent three-and-a- half pages on a detailed explanation of why he thought stocks were a much better investment than, say, gold or bonds. (See Warren Buffett: Why stocks beat gold and bonds.) He also said he was bullish on U.S. housing.

????Last year, Buffett devoted four paragraphs to the case for stocks, and he said that he thought the market would still "do well."

????But even a year ago, Buffett's enthusiasm for the market seemed to wane. He wrote that investors should expect setbacks in the market from time to time. If that was supposed to be a wink that one could come in 2013, Buffett missed that call. In 2013, the S&P 500's total return was 32%.